Tailoring Adverse Event Prediction in Type 1 Diabetes with Patient-Specific Deep Learning Models

Effective management of Type 1 Diabetes requires continuous glucose monitoring and precise insulin adjustments to prevent hyperglycemia and hypoglycemia. With the growing adoption of wearable glucose monitors and mobile health applications, accurate blood glucose prediction is essential for enhancing automated insulin delivery and decision-support systems. This paper presents a deep learning-based approach for personalized blood glucose prediction, leveraging patient-specific data to improve prediction accuracy and responsiveness in real-world scenarios. Unlike traditional generalized models, our method accounts for individual variability, enabling more effective subject-specific predictions. We compare Leave-One-Subject-Out Cross-Validation with a fine-tuning strategy to evaluate their ability to model patient-specific dynamics. Results show that personalized models significantly improve the prediction of adverse events, enabling more precise and timely interventions in real-world scenarios. To assess the impact of patient-specific data, we conduct experiments comparing a multimodal, patient-specific approach against traditional CGM-only methods. Additionally, we perform an ablation study to investigate model performance with progressively smaller training sets, identifying the minimum data required for effective personalization-an essential consideration for real-world applications where extensive data collection is often challenging. Our findings underscore the potential of adaptive, personalized glucose prediction models for advancing next-generation diabetes management, particularly in wearable and mobile health platforms, enhancing consumer-oriented diabetes care solutions.

Lightweight Sequential Transformers for Blood Glucose Level Prediction in Type-1 Diabetes

Type 1 Diabetes (T1D) affects millions worldwide, requiring continuous monitoring to prevent severe hypo- and hyperglycemic events. While continuous glucose monitoring has improved blood glucose management, deploying predictive models on wearable devices remains challenging due to computational and memory constraints. To address this, we propose a novel Lightweight Sequential Transformer model designed for blood glucose prediction in T1D. By integrating the strengths of Transformers' attention mechanisms and the sequential processing of recurrent neural networks, our architecture captures long-term dependencies while maintaining computational efficiency. The model is optimized for deployment on resource-constrained edge devices and incorporates a balanced loss function to handle the inherent data imbalance in hypo- and hyperglycemic events. Experiments on two benchmark datasets, OhioT1DM and DiaTrend, demonstrate that the proposed model outperforms state-of-the-art methods in predicting glucose levels and detecting adverse events. This work fills the gap between high-performance modeling and practical deployment, providing a reliable and efficient T1D management solution.