When AI Navigates the Fog of War

Can AI reason about a war before its trajectory becomes historically obvious? Analyzing this capability is difficult because retrospective geopolitical prediction is heavily confounded by training-data leakage. We address this challenge through a temporally grounded case study of the early stages of the 2026 Middle East conflict, which unfolded after the training cutoff of current frontier models. We construct 11 critical temporal nodes, 42 node-specific verifiable questions, and 5 general exploratory questions, requiring models to reason only from information that would have been publicly available at each moment. This design substantially mitigates training-data leakage concerns, creating a setting well-suited for studying how models analyze an unfolding crisis under the fog of war, and provides, to our knowledge, the first temporally grounded analysis of LLM reasoning in an ongoing geopolitical conflict. Our analysis reveals three main findings. First, current state-of-the-art large language models often display a striking degree of strategic realism, reasoning beyond surface rhetoric toward deeper structural incentives. Second, this capability is uneven across domains: models are more reliable in economically and logistically structured settings than in politically ambiguous multi-actor environments. Finally, model narratives evolve over time, shifting from early expectations of rapid containment toward more systemic accounts of regional entrenchment and attritional de-escalation. Since the conflict remains ongoing at the time of writing, this work can serve as an archival snapshot of model reasoning during an unfolding geopolitical crisis, enabling future studies without the hindsight bias of retrospective analysis.

NTIRE 2026 Challenge on Robust AI-Generated Image Detection in the Wild

This paper presents an overview of the NTIRE 2026 Challenge on Robust AI-Generated Image Detection in the Wild, held in conjunction with the NTIRE workshop at CVPR 2026. The goal of this challenge was to develop detection models capable of distinguishing real images from generated ones in realistic scenarios: the images are often transformed (cropped, resized, compressed, blurred) for practical usage, and therefore, the detection models should be robust to such transformations. The challenge is based on a novel dataset consisting of 108,750 real and 185,750 AI-generated images from 42 generators comprising a large variety of open-source and closed-source models of various architectures, augmented with 36 image transformations. Methods were evaluated using ROC AUC on the full test set, including both transformed and untransformed images. A total of 511 participants registered, with 20 teams submitting valid final solutions. This report provides a comprehensive overview of the challenge, describes the proposed solutions, and can be used as a valuable reference for researchers and practitioners in increasing the robustness of the detection models to real-world transformations.

FBK's Long-form SpeechLLMs for IWSLT 2026 Instruction Following

This paper describes our submission to the IWSLT 2026 Instruction Following shared task. SpeechLLMs are developed for both short-form and long-form speech instruction following under constrained settings. For the short track, strong performance is achieved on MCIF, with a SIFS score of 2.0708. For the long track, three speech segmentation methods are explored, and the HIFS score is introduced to account for unstable long-form generation. Experimental results show that fixed 30-second segmentation provides the most robust long-form performance, achieving the highest HIFS score of 2.0663. Further analysis shows that hallucination mainly manifests as repetitive insertions in generated outputs, substantially affecting ASR and SSUM, while short-form capabilities are largely retained after long-form extension.

Dziri Voicebot: An End-to-End Low-Resource Speech-to-Speech Conversational System for Algerian Dialect

Automatic speech and language technologies are still heavily biased toward high-resource languages, limiting their applicability to dialectal and low-resource settings such as Algerian Dialect. This language presents additional challenges including lack of standardized orthography, frequent codeswitching with French, and scarcity of annotated speech resources. This paper addresses the problem of building a complete speech-to-speech conversational system for Algerian Dialect. We propose a modular pipeline integrating automatic speech recognition, natural language understanding, retrieval-augmented generation, and text-to-speech synthesis within a unified architecture. This work is the continuation of our previous work on Algerian dialectal conversational systems Bechiri and Lanasri [2026], extending it from text-based dialogue modeling to full speech-based interaction. We constructed dedicated datasets for ASR, NLU, and TTS in the telecom domain and fine-tune pretrained models for each component. The ASR system is built on Whisper-based adaptation, while the NLU module combines transformer-based embeddings with a task-oriented dialogue framework. A neural TTS system is trained on a newly collected dialectal corpus to enable spoken response generation. Experimental results show strong performance across all components, including low word error rate for ASR, high intent classification and entity recognition scores for NLU, and stable speech synthesis quality. The proposed system provides a reproducible baseline for end-to-end conversational modeling in Algerian Dialect.

Measurable Majorities Are Not Finitely Axiomatizable

This theoretical note studies the finite axiomatizability of strict majority reasoning in finite social decision frames. Moss and Pedersen (2026) <doi: 10.48550/arXiv.2606.23853> introduce a coherence criterion that characterizes exactly when qualitative majority judgments are representable by a finitely additive measure. The question addressed here is whether that coherence criterion can be replaced, in the finite setting, by any bounded finite fragment. We prove that it cannot. For every $k\ge 1$, we construct a maximal standard frame whose shortest coherence violation has length exactly $2k+2$. Hence there is no uniform finite bound on the incoherence index of social decision frames, resolving Conjecture 5.7 stated by Moss and Pedersen (2026). The construction is geometric, in the sense that it proceeds via orthogonality and dimension in rational vector spaces, and self-contained: it isolates a symmetric family of half-sized voting blocs and extends it to a maximal frame in which every shorter balanced obstruction is excluded. Along the explicit infinite sequence of universe sizes obtained in the construction, this also establishes the middle-layer family predicted by Conjecture B.25 by Moss and Pedersen (2026). Together with the soundness and completeness theorem for the Moss-Pedersen minimal logic for strict majorities, this establishes that measurable social decision frames are not finitely axiomatizable in that language.

\chisao{}: A GPU-Native Parallel Optimizer for Multimodal Black-Box Functions via Convergence-Anticonvergence Oscillation

Finding all modes of a multimodal black-box function is a fundamental challenge in optimization, Bayesian inference, and scientific computing. Existing approaches -- basin-hopping, CMA-ES, multistart gradient descent -- operate sequentially and cannot exploit the massive parallelism of modern GPU hardware. We introduce \chisao{} (\textbf{C}onvergence-\textbf{H}alt-\textbf{I}nvert-\textbf{S}tick-\textbf{A}nd-\textbf{O}scillate), a GPU-native population optimizer that runs an entire sample batch simultaneously and exploits a deliberate convergence-anticonvergence oscillation cycle to escape local traps while freezing confirmed modes. The structural move is asymmetric: samples that reach true peaks are frozen (``stuck'') and preserved, while the rest keep exploring via momentum-based anti-convergence and stochastically smoothed gradients. Adaptive reseeding via two complementary strategies (Repulse Monkey and Golden Rooster) maintains population diversity throughout. On all 42 functions of the Simon Fraser University optimization benchmark suite across dimensions $d \in \{2, 4, 8, 16, 32, 64\}$, \chisao{} achieves \textbf{100\%} mode recovery where all CPU baselines collapse at $d \geq 8$ on the hardest multimodal functions, at up to \textbf{$34\times$} speedup over basin-hopping on functions where all methods succeed (Michalewicz $d=64$) and up to \textbf{$39\times$} on unimodal functions (Rotated Hyper-Ellipsoid $d=64$, pure GPU dividend). All benchmarks evaluate the objective by value alone -- gradients come from finite differences -- so the reported speedups are a derivative-free worst case. Under substantial likelihood noise ($σ_{\mathrm{noise}}$ up to 1.0), mode detection remains 100\% reliable. The algorithm is available as a standalone open-source Python package on PyPI.

Phonetic and semantic analyses of spoken corpora of Beijing and Taiwan Mandarin indicate that the neutral tone is a lexical tone

The neutral, or floating, tone of Mandarin Chinese is a tone with an enigmatic set of properties. It has been described as a reduced tone, or as a tone that sometimes is lexically fixed but that can also be toneless. In two-syllable words, it is found only on the second syllable, but single-syllable words can also have the neutral tone. We present a corpus-based study of the phonetic realization of the neutral tone in spontaneous conversational speech corpora of Beijing Mandarin and Taiwan Mandarin. We show that the neutral tone has its own tonal target, just as the four lexical tones of Mandarin. We also show that disyllabic words with a neutral tone have pitch contours that have a pitch component that depends on the tone on the first syllable, just as has been observed for two-syllable words with a lexical tone on the second syllable (Chuang et al., 2026). Furthermore, words with a floating tone have word-specific pitch signatures, which have also been documented for single-syllable words (Jin et al., 2026) as well as two-syllable words (Lu et al., 2026b). These word-specific pitch signatures are shown to be predictable to some extent from words' contextualized embeddings, as previously reported for lexical tones (Chuang et al., 2026; Lu et al., 2026b). As there is also considerable variability in the realization of lexical tones, we propose that the neutral tone is, in fact, a lexical tone in both Taiwan Mandarin and Beijing Mandarin. We document both similarities and differences in the realization of the floating tone in these two varieties and provide evidence, using contextualized embeddings, that some of the observed differences may arise from differences in the meanings of the words as used in the two corpora.

You Don't Need to Run Every Eval

A modern model release reports scores on 40+ benchmarks and the same evaluations were run many more times before it: to track training progress, compare design choices, and select the checkpoint for the release. But do we need to run every eval? We compile a public score matrix of 84 frontier models on 133 benchmarks (2,604 cells, 23.3% filled) and find it is approximately rank-2: a model's scores across all 133 benchmarks are largely determined by just two numbers. We confirm this in two ways: scores hidden from the matrix are best recovered using two factors, and two factors already explain over 90% of the variation among models on the benchmarks they share. Building on this, we design BenchPress: a logit-space rank-2 matrix completion method that recovers held-out scores to within 4.6 points, and a confidence layer that says when each prediction can be trusted. Using BenchPress, we find a subset of five benchmarks {GPQA-D, HLE, Codeforces, MMLU-Pro, ARC-AGI-1} that can recover the rest of a model's public scorecard to within 3.93 points. For a tighter inference budget, a cheaper set {GPQA-D, MMLU-Pro, Aider Polyglot, MATH-500, AIME 2026} can predict a model's evals to within 4.55. We release the score matrix, the BenchPress code, and an interactive tool that predicts any model's score on any benchmark.

Inverse Reinforcement Learning for Interpretable Keystroke Biomarkers in Parkinson's Disease

Keystroke dynamics have been explored extensively as a passive digital biomarker for Parkinson's disease (PD), typically by extracting summary statistics from typing timing and training a classifier to discriminate PD from healthy controls. We instead apply inverse reinforcement learning (IRL) to keystroke data, modeling each keystroke as a discrete choice over typing speed and recovering, per subject, an interpretable reward function that explains their observed timing behavior. To our knowledge this is the first application of IRL to keystroke dynamics. On the public neuroQWERTY MIT-CSXPD dataset (85 subjects, 42 with PD), an initial four-parameter reward decomposition (speed, effort, smoothness, hand-alternation cost) was found to suffer severe feature collinearity between two terms ($r=1.000$ in typical contexts); we diagnose and correct this, yielding an identifiable three-parameter model. The recovered speed-preference weight correlates with UPDRS-III severity at $r=-0.607$ ($p<0.001$, $n=42$), replicates independently across two sub-cohorts, is stable across nine sensitivity configurations, and retains a statistically significant contribution beyond raw typing speed alone (incremental $R^2$ from 0.194 to 0.338, $p=0.006$). Two other recovered weights (consistency, hand-alternation) did not survive confound checks and are reported as negative results. We document two implementation bugs found during adversarial code review (session-boundary contamination, a rolling-window data leakage) and show the headline result is materially unchanged after fixing both. We discuss this result in the context of a literature where reported accuracies vary widely between studies (pooled AUC 0.85, I^2=94% in a 2022 meta-analysis), and argue that the validation process itself, not only the correlation coefficient, is part of the contribution.

Can Trustless Agents Be Trusted? An Empirical Study of the ERC-8004 Decentralized AI Agent Ecosystem

As autonomous AI agents increasingly transact across organizational boundaries, a fundamental trust challenge emerges: how can an agent assess whether an unknown counterpart is trustworthy? The ERC-8004 protocol addresses this challenge with the first permissionless trust layer for AI agent economies, built around three on-chain registries for Identity, Reputation, and Validation. Despite its rapid adoption, the protocol has not been studied empirically, leaving it unclear whether the information it records provides a trustworthy basis for decision-making. To address this gap, we present the first empirical study of ERC-8004 across three chains: Ethereum, BNB Smart Chain (BSC), and Base, covering the period from protocol deployment through May 13, 2026. We crawl on-chain Identity and Reputation events, off-chain files, and x402 payment transactions. On the identity side, we find that most registrations are placeholders rather than active agents, with only a small fraction (3%, 4%, and 15% across Ethereum, BSC, and Base) exposing a valid ERC-8004 registration file with at least one live service endpoint. On the reputation side, we show that the Registry, as currently deployed, cannot function as a trust signal: values are not commensurable, feedback records are rarely grounded in verifiable interactions, and reputation can be manipulated at minimal cost. Consistent with these design weaknesses, we find that a substantial fraction of reviewers (73.6%, 59.2%, and 90.6% across Ethereum, BSC, and Base) exhibit coordinated Sybil behavior. After removing Sybil-flagged feedback, 15.5%, 72.3%, and 89.4% of rated agents, respectively, are left with no valid feedback. We then turn these findings into concrete recommendations for future revisions of ERC-8004. Our study yields actionable protocol-design implications and establishes an empirical baseline for research on AI agent markets.