What do LLMs Know about Financial Markets? A Case Study on Reddit Market Sentiment Analysis

Market sentiment analysis on social media content requires knowledge of both financial markets and social media jargon, which makes it a challenging task for human raters. The resulting lack of high-quality labeled data stands in the way of conventional supervised learning methods. Instead, we approach this problem using semi-supervised learning with a large language model (LLM). Our pipeline generates weak financial sentiment labels for Reddit posts with an LLM and then uses that data to train a small model that can be served in production. We find that prompting the LLM to produce Chain-of-Thought summaries and forcing it through several reasoning paths helps generate more stable and accurate labels, while using a regression loss further improves distillation quality. With only a handful of prompts, the final model performs on par with existing supervised models. Though production applications of our model are limited by ethical considerations, the model's competitive performance points to the great potential of using LLMs for tasks that otherwise require skill-intensive annotation.

Towards Understanding Chain-of-Thought Prompting: An Empirical Study of What Matters

Chain-of-Thought (CoT) prompting can dramatically improve the multi-step reasoning abilities of large language models (LLMs). CoT explicitly encourages the LLM to generate intermediate rationales for solving a problem, by providing a series of reasoning steps in the demonstrations. Despite its success, there is still little understanding of what makes CoT prompting effective and which aspects of the demonstrated reasoning steps contribute to its performance. In this paper, we show that CoT reasoning is possible even with invalid demonstrations - prompting with invalid reasoning steps can achieve over 80-90% of the performance obtained using CoT under various metrics, while still generating coherent lines of reasoning during inference. Further experiments show that other aspects of the rationales, such as being relevant to the query and correctly ordering the reasoning steps, are much more important for effective CoT reasoning. Overall, these findings both deepen our understanding of CoT prompting, and open up new questions regarding LLMs' capability to learn to reason in context.

Don't Generate, Discriminate: A Proposal for Grounding Language Models to Real-World Environments

A key missing ability of current language models (LMs) is grounding to real-world environments. Most existing work for grounded language understanding uses LMs to directly generate plans that can be executed in the environment to achieve the desired effects. It casts the burden of ensuring grammaticality, faithfulness, and controllability all on the LMs. We propose Pangu, a generic framework for grounded language understanding that capitalizes on the discriminative ability of LMs instead of their generative ability. Pangu consists of a symbolic agent and a neural LM working in a concerted fashion: the agent explores the environment to incrementally construct valid candidate plans, and the LM evaluates the plausibility of the candidate plans to guide the search process. A case study on the challenging problem of knowledge base question answering (KBQA), which features a massive environment, demonstrates the remarkable effectiveness and flexibility of Pangu: A BERT-base LM is sufficient for achieving a new state of the art on standard KBQA datasets, and larger LMs further improve the performance by a large margin. Pangu also enables, for the first time, effective few-shot in-context learning for KBQA with large LMs such as Codex.

Bootstrapping a User-Centered Task-Oriented Dialogue System

We present TacoBot, a task-oriented dialogue system built for the inaugural Alexa Prize TaskBot Challenge, which assists users in completing multi-step cooking and home improvement tasks. TacoBot is designed with a user-centered principle and aspires to deliver a collaborative and accessible dialogue experience. Towards that end, it is equipped with accurate language understanding, flexible dialogue management, and engaging response generation. Furthermore, TacoBot is backed by a strong search engine and an automated end-to-end test suite. In bootstrapping the development of TacoBot, we explore a series of data augmentation strategies to train advanced neural language processing models and continuously improve the dialogue experience with collected real conversations. At the end of the semifinals, TacoBot achieved an average rating of 3.55/5.0.

Reducing Flipping Errors in Deep Neural Networks

Deep neural networks (DNNs) have been widely applied in various domains in artificial intelligence including computer vision and natural language processing. A DNN is typically trained for many epochs and then a validation dataset is used to select the DNN in an epoch (we simply call this epoch "the last epoch") as the final model for making predictions on unseen samples, while it usually cannot achieve a perfect accuracy on unseen samples. An interesting question is "how many test (unseen) samples that a DNN misclassifies in the last epoch were ever correctly classified by the DNN before the last epoch?". In this paper, we empirically study this question and find on several benchmark datasets that the vast majority of the misclassified samples in the last epoch were ever classified correctly before the last epoch, which means that the predictions for these samples were flipped from "correct" to "wrong". Motivated by this observation, we propose to restrict the behavior changes of a DNN on the correctly-classified samples so that the correct local boundaries can be maintained and the flipping error on unseen samples can be largely reduced. Extensive experiments on different benchmark datasets with different modern network architectures demonstrate that the proposed flipping error reduction (FER) approach can substantially improve the generalization, the robustness, and the transferability of DNNs without introducing any additional network parameters or inference cost, only with a negligible training overhead.

Shepherd Pre-trained Language Models to Develop a Train of Thought: An Iterative Prompting Approach

While Pre-trained Language Models (PLMs) internalize a great amount of world knowledge, they have been shown incapable of recalling these knowledge to solve tasks requiring complex & multi-step inference procedures. Similar to how humans develop a "train of thought" for these tasks, how can we equip PLMs with such abilities? In this work, we explore an iterative prompting framework, a new prompting paradigm which progressively elicits relevant knowledge from PLMs for multi-step inference tasks. We identify key limitations of existing prompting methods, namely they are either restricted to queries with a single identifiable relation/predicate, or being agnostic to input contexts, which makes it difficult to capture variabilities across different inference steps. We propose an iterative context-aware prompter, which addresses these limitations by learning to dynamically synthesize prompts conditioned on the current step's contexts. Experiments on three datasets involving multi-step inference show the effectiveness of the iterative scheme and our proposed prompter design.

DOM-LM: Learning Generalizable Representations for HTML Documents

HTML documents are an important medium for disseminating information on the Web for human consumption. An HTML document presents information in multiple text formats including unstructured text, structured key-value pairs, and tables. Effective representation of these documents is essential for machine understanding to enable a wide range of applications, such as Question Answering, Web Search, and Personalization. Existing work has either represented these documents using visual features extracted by rendering them in a browser, which is typically computationally expensive, or has simply treated them as plain text documents, thereby failing to capture useful information presented in their HTML structure. We argue that the text and HTML structure together convey important semantics of the content and therefore warrant a special treatment for their representation learning. In this paper, we introduce a novel representation learning approach for web pages, dubbed DOM-LM, which addresses the limitations of existing approaches by encoding both text and DOM tree structure with a transformer-based encoder and learning generalizable representations for HTML documents via self-supervised pre-training. We evaluate DOM-LM on a variety of webpage understanding tasks, including Attribute Extraction, Open Information Extraction, and Question Answering. Our extensive experiments show that DOM-LM consistently outperforms all baselines designed for these tasks. In particular, DOM-LM demonstrates better generalization performance both in few-shot and zero-shot settings, making it attractive for making it suitable for real-world application settings with limited labeled data.

ReasonBERT: Pre-trained to Reason with Distant Supervision

We present ReasonBert, a pre-training method that augments language models with the ability to reason over long-range relations and multiple, possibly hybrid contexts. Unlike existing pre-training methods that only harvest learning signals from local contexts of naturally occurring texts, we propose a generalized notion of distant supervision to automatically connect multiple pieces of text and tables to create pre-training examples that require long-range reasoning. Different types of reasoning are simulated, including intersecting multiple pieces of evidence, bridging from one piece of evidence to another, and detecting unanswerable cases. We conduct a comprehensive evaluation on a variety of extractive question answering datasets ranging from single-hop to multi-hop and from text-only to table-only to hybrid that require various reasoning capabilities and show that ReasonBert achieves remarkable improvement over an array of strong baselines. Few-shot experiments further demonstrate that our pre-training method substantially improves sample efficiency.

Graph-Free Knowledge Distillation for Graph Neural Networks

Knowledge distillation (KD) transfers knowledge from a teacher network to a student by enforcing the student to mimic the outputs of the pretrained teacher on training data. However, data samples are not always accessible in many cases due to large data sizes, privacy, or confidentiality. Many efforts have been made on addressing this problem for convolutional neural networks (CNNs) whose inputs lie in a grid domain within a continuous space such as images and videos, but largely overlook graph neural networks (GNNs) that handle non-grid data with different topology structures within a discrete space. The inherent differences between their inputs make these CNN-based approaches not applicable to GNNs. In this paper, we propose to our best knowledge the first dedicated approach to distilling knowledge from a GNN without graph data. The proposed graph-free KD (GFKD) learns graph topology structures for knowledge transfer by modeling them with multinomial distribution. We then introduce a gradient estimator to optimize this framework. Essentially, the gradients w.r.t. graph structures are obtained by only using GNN forward-propagation without back-propagation, which means that GFKD is compatible with modern GNN libraries such as DGL and Geometric. Moreover, we provide the strategies for handling different types of prior knowledge in the graph data or the GNNs. Extensive experiments demonstrate that GFKD achieves the state-of-the-art performance for distilling knowledge from GNNs without training data.

Learning with Retrospection

Deep neural networks have been successfully deployed in various domains of artificial intelligence, including computer vision and natural language processing. We observe that the current standard procedure for training DNNs discards all the learned information in the past epochs except the current learned weights. An interesting question is: is this discarded information indeed useless? We argue that the discarded information can benefit the subsequent training. In this paper, we propose learning with retrospection (LWR) which makes use of the learned information in the past epochs to guide the subsequent training. LWR is a simple yet effective training framework to improve accuracies, calibration, and robustness of DNNs without introducing any additional network parameters or inference cost, only with a negligible training overhead. Extensive experiments on several benchmark datasets demonstrate the superiority of LWR for training DNNs.