Less Is More: Fast Multivariate Time Series Forecasting with Light Sampling-oriented MLP Structures

Multivariate time series forecasting has seen widely ranging applications in various domains, including finance, traffic, energy, and healthcare. To capture the sophisticated temporal patterns, plenty of research studies designed complex neural network architectures based on many variants of RNNs, GNNs, and Transformers. However, complex models are often computationally expensive and thus face a severe challenge in training and inference efficiency when applied to large-scale real-world datasets. In this paper, we introduce LightTS, a light deep learning architecture merely based on simple MLP-based structures. The key idea of LightTS is to apply an MLP-based structure on top of two delicate down-sampling strategies, including interval sampling and continuous sampling, inspired by a crucial fact that down-sampling time series often preserves the majority of its information. We conduct extensive experiments on eight widely used benchmark datasets. Compared with the existing state-of-the-art methods, LightTS demonstrates better performance on five of them and comparable performance on the rest. Moreover, LightTS is highly efficient. It uses less than 5% FLOPS compared with previous SOTA methods on the largest benchmark dataset. In addition, LightTS is robust and has a much smaller variance in forecasting accuracy than previous SOTA methods in long sequence forecasting tasks.

Family of Two Dimensional Transition Metal Dichlorides Fundamental Properties, Structural Defects, and Environmental Stability

A large number of novel two-dimensional (2D) materials are constantly discovered and deposed into the databases. Consolidate implementation of machine learning algorithms and density functional theory (DFT) based predictions have allowed creating several databases containing an unimaginable amount of 2D samples. The next step in this chain, the investigation leads to a comprehensive study of the functionality of the invented materials. In this work, a family of transition metal dichlorides has been screened out for systematical investigation of their structural stability, fundamental properties, structural defects, and environmental stability via DFT based calculations. The work highlights the importance of using the potential of the invented materials and proposes a comprehensive characterization of a new family of 2D materials.

DEPTS: Deep Expansion Learning for Periodic Time Series Forecasting

Periodic time series (PTS) forecasting plays a crucial role in a variety of industries to foster critical tasks, such as early warning, pre-planning, resource scheduling, etc. However, the complicated dependencies of the PTS signal on its inherent periodicity as well as the sophisticated composition of various periods hinder the performance of PTS forecasting. In this paper, we introduce a deep expansion learning framework, DEPTS, for PTS forecasting. DEPTS starts with a decoupled formulation by introducing the periodic state as a hidden variable, which stimulates us to make two dedicated modules to tackle the aforementioned two challenges. First, we develop an expansion module on top of residual learning to perform a layer-by-layer expansion of those complicated dependencies. Second, we introduce a periodicity module with a parameterized periodic function that holds sufficient capacity to capture diversified periods. Moreover, our two customized modules also have certain interpretable capabilities, such as attributing the forecasts to either local momenta or global periodicity and characterizing certain core periodic properties, e.g., amplitudes and frequencies. Extensive experiments on both synthetic data and real-world data demonstrate the effectiveness of DEPTS on handling PTS. In most cases, DEPTS achieves significant improvements over the best baseline. Specifically, the error reduction can even reach up to 20% for a few cases. Finally, all codes are publicly available.

Towards Inter-class and Intra-class Imbalance in Class-imbalanced Learning

Imbalanced Learning (IL) is an important problem that widely exists in data mining applications. Typical IL methods utilize intuitive class-wise resampling or reweighting to directly balance the training set. However, some recent research efforts in specific domains show that class-imbalanced learning can be achieved without class-wise manipulation. This prompts us to think about the relationship between the two different IL strategies and the nature of the class imbalance. Fundamentally, they correspond to two essential imbalances that exist in IL: the difference in quantity between examples from different classes as well as between easy and hard examples within a single class, i.e., inter-class and intra-class imbalance. Existing works fail to explicitly take both imbalances into account and thus suffer from suboptimal performance. In light of this, we present Duple-Balanced Ensemble, namely DUBE , a versatile ensemble learning framework. Unlike prevailing methods, DUBE directly performs inter-class and intra-class balancing without relying on heavy distance-based computation, which allows it to achieve competitive performance while being computationally efficient. We also present a detailed discussion and analysis about the pros and cons of different inter/intra-class balancing strategies based on DUBE . Extensive experiments validate the effectiveness of the proposed method. Code and examples are available at https://github.com/ICDE2022Sub/duplebalance.

IMBENS: Ensemble Class-imbalanced Learning in Python

imbalanced-ensemble, abbreviated as imbens, is an open-source Python toolbox for quick implementing and deploying ensemble learning algorithms on class-imbalanced data. It provides access to multiple state-of-art ensemble imbalanced learning (EIL) methods, visualizer, and utility functions for dealing with the class imbalance problem. These ensemble methods include resampling-based, e.g., under/over-sampling, and reweighting-based ones, e.g., cost-sensitive learning. Beyond the implementation, we also extend conventional binary EIL algorithms with new functionalities like multi-class support and resampling scheduler, thereby enabling them to handle more complex tasks. The package was developed under a simple, well-documented API design follows that of scikit-learn for increased ease of use. imbens is released under the MIT open-source license and can be installed from Python Package Index (PyPI). Source code, binaries, detailed documentation, and usage examples are available at https://github.com/ZhiningLiu1998/imbalanced-ensemble.

Pinpointing the Memory Behaviors of DNN Training

The training of deep neural networks (DNNs) is usually memory-hungry due to the limited device memory capacity of DNN accelerators. Characterizing the memory behaviors of DNN training is critical to optimize the device memory pressures. In this work, we pinpoint the memory behaviors of each device memory block of GPU during training by instrumenting the memory allocators of the runtime system. Our results show that the memory access patterns of device memory blocks are stable and follow an iterative fashion. These observations are useful for the future optimization of memory-efficient training from the perspective of raw memory access patterns.

Forecast with Forecasts: Diversity Matters

Forecast combination has been widely applied in the last few decades to improve forecast accuracy. In recent years, the idea of using time series features to construct forecast combination model has flourished in the forecasting area. Although this idea has been proved to be beneficial in several forecast competitions such as the M3 and M4 competitions, it may not be practical in many situations. For example, the task of selecting appropriate features to build forecasting models can be a big challenge for many researchers. Even if there is one acceptable way to define the features, existing features are estimated based on the historical patterns, which are doomed to change in the future, or infeasible in the case of limited historical data. In this work, we suggest a change of focus from the historical data to the produced forecasts to extract features. We calculate the diversity of a pool of models based on the corresponding forecasts as a decisive feature and use meta-learning to construct diversity-based forecast combination models. A rich set of time series are used to evaluate the performance of the proposed method. Experimental results show that our diversity-based forecast combination framework not only simplifies the modelling process but also achieves superior forecasting performance.

MESA: Boost Ensemble Imbalanced Learning with MEta-SAmpler

Imbalanced learning (IL), i.e., learning unbiased models from class-imbalanced data, is a challenging problem. Typical IL methods including resampling and reweighting were designed based on some heuristic assumptions. They often suffer from unstable performance, poor applicability, and high computational cost in complex tasks where their assumptions do not hold. In this paper, we introduce a novel ensemble IL framework named MESA. It adaptively resamples the training set in iterations to get multiple classifiers and forms a cascade ensemble model. MESA directly learns the sampling strategy from data to optimize the final metric beyond following random heuristics. Moreover, unlike prevailing meta-learning-based IL solutions, we decouple the model-training and meta-training in MESA by independently train the meta-sampler over task-agnostic meta-data. This makes MESA generally applicable to most of the existing learning models and the meta-sampler can be efficiently applied to new tasks. Extensive experiments on both synthetic and real-world tasks demonstrate the effectiveness, robustness, and transferability of MESA. Our code is available at https://github.com/ZhiningLiu1998/mesa.

Nonparametric Estimation of the Fisher Information and Its Applications

This paper considers the problem of estimation of the Fisher information for location from a random sample of size $n$. First, an estimator proposed by Bhattacharya is revisited and improved convergence rates are derived. Second, a new estimator, termed a clipped estimator, is proposed. Superior upper bounds on the rates of convergence can be shown for the new estimator compared to the Bhattacharya estimator, albeit with different regularity conditions. Third, both of the estimators are evaluated for the practically relevant case of a random variable contaminated by Gaussian noise. Moreover, using Brown's identity, which relates the Fisher information and the minimum mean squared error (MMSE) in Gaussian noise, two corresponding consistent estimators for the MMSE are proposed. Simulation examples for the Bhattacharya estimator and the clipped estimator as well as the MMSE estimators are presented. The examples demonstrate that the clipped estimator can significantly reduce the required sample size to guarantee a specific confidence interval compared to the Bhattacharya estimator.