Calibrating Predictions to Decisions: A Novel Approach to Multi-Class Calibration

When facing uncertainty, decision-makers want predictions they can trust. A machine learning provider can convey confidence to decision-makers by guaranteeing their predictions are distribution calibrated -- amongst the inputs that receive a predicted class probabilities vector $q$, the actual distribution over classes is $q$. For multi-class prediction problems, however, achieving distribution calibration tends to be infeasible, requiring sample complexity exponential in the number of classes $C$. In this work, we introduce a new notion -- \emph{decision calibration} -- that requires the predicted distribution and true distribution to be ``indistinguishable'' to a set of downstream decision-makers. When all possible decision makers are under consideration, decision calibration is the same as distribution calibration. However, when we only consider decision makers choosing between a bounded number of actions (e.g. polynomial in $C$), our main result shows that decisions calibration becomes feasible -- we design a recalibration algorithm that requires sample complexity polynomial in the number of actions and the number of classes. We validate our recalibration algorithm empirically: compared to existing methods, decision calibration improves decision-making on skin lesion and ImageNet classification with modern neural network predictors.

Iterative Feature Matching: Toward Provable Domain Generalization with Logarithmic Environments

Domain generalization aims at performing well on unseen test environments with data from a limited number of training environments. Despite a proliferation of proposal algorithms for this task, assessing their performance, both theoretically and empirically is still very challenging. Moreover, recent approaches such as Invariant Risk Minimization (IRM) require a prohibitively large number of training environments - linear in the dimension of the spurious feature space $d_s$ - even on simple data models like the one proposed by [Rosenfeld et al., 2021]. Under a variant of this model, we show that both ERM and IRM cannot generalize with $o(d_s)$ environments. We then present a new algorithm based on performing iterative feature matching that is guaranteed with high probability to yield a predictor that generalizes after seeing only $O(\log{d_s})$ environments.

Why Do Pretrained Language Models Help in Downstream Tasks? An Analysis of Head and Prompt Tuning

Pretrained language models have achieved state-of-the-art performance when adapted to a downstream NLP task. However, theoretical analysis of these models is scarce and challenging since the pretraining and downstream tasks can be very different. We propose an analysis framework that links the pretraining and downstream tasks with an underlying latent variable generative model of text -- the downstream classifier must recover a function of the posterior distribution over the latent variables. We analyze head tuning (learning a classifier on top of the frozen pretrained model) and prompt tuning in this setting. The generative model in our analysis is either a Hidden Markov Model (HMM) or an HMM augmented with a latent memory component, motivated by long-term dependencies in natural language. We show that 1) under certain non-degeneracy conditions on the HMM, simple classification heads can solve the downstream task, 2) prompt tuning obtains downstream guarantees with weaker non-degeneracy conditions, and 3) our recovery guarantees for the memory-augmented HMM are stronger than for the vanilla HMM because task-relevant information is easier to recover from the long-term memory. Experiments on synthetically generated data from HMMs back our theoretical findings.

Provable Guarantees for Self-Supervised Deep Learning with Spectral Contrastive Loss

Recent works in self-supervised learning have advanced the state-of-the-art by relying on the contrastive learning paradigm, which learns representations by pushing positive pairs, or similar examples from the same class, closer together while keeping negative pairs far apart. Despite the empirical successes, theoretical foundations are limited -- prior analyses assume conditional independence of the positive pairs given the same class label, but recent empirical applications use heavily correlated positive pairs (i.e., data augmentations of the same image). Our work analyzes contrastive learning without assuming conditional independence of positive pairs using a novel concept of the augmentation graph on data. Edges in this graph connect augmentations of the same data, and ground-truth classes naturally form connected sub-graphs. We propose a loss that performs spectral decomposition on the population augmentation graph and can be succinctly written as a contrastive learning objective on neural net representations. Minimizing this objective leads to features with provable accuracy guarantees under linear probe evaluation. By standard generalization bounds, these accuracy guarantees also hold when minimizing the training contrastive loss. Empirically, the features learned by our objective can match or outperform several strong baselines on benchmark vision datasets. In all, this work provides the first provable analysis for contrastive learning where guarantees for linear probe evaluation can apply to realistic empirical settings.

Label Noise SGD Provably Prefers Flat Global Minimizers

In overparametrized models, the noise in stochastic gradient descent (SGD) implicitly regularizes the optimization trajectory and determines which local minimum SGD converges to. Motivated by empirical studies that demonstrate that training with noisy labels improves generalization, we study the implicit regularization effect of SGD with label noise. We show that SGD with label noise converges to a stationary point of a regularized loss $L(\theta) +\lambda R(\theta)$, where $L(\theta)$ is the training loss, $\lambda$ is an effective regularization parameter depending on the step size, strength of the label noise, and the batch size, and $R(\theta)$ is an explicit regularizer that penalizes sharp minimizers. Our analysis uncovers an additional regularization effect of large learning rates beyond the linear scaling rule that penalizes large eigenvalues of the Hessian more than small ones. We also prove extensions to classification with general loss functions, SGD with momentum, and SGD with general noise covariance, significantly strengthening the prior work of Blanc et al. to global convergence and large learning rates and of HaoChen et al. to general models.

Joint System-Wise Optimization for Pipeline Goal-Oriented Dialog System

Recent work (Takanobu et al., 2020) proposed the system-wise evaluation on dialog systems and found that improvement on individual components (e.g., NLU, policy) in prior work may not necessarily bring benefit to pipeline systems in system-wise evaluation. To improve the system-wise performance, in this paper, we propose new joint system-wise optimization techniques for the pipeline dialog system. First, we propose a new data augmentation approach which automates the labeling process for NLU training. Second, we propose a novel stochastic policy parameterization with Poisson distribution that enables better exploration and offers a principled way to compute policy gradient. Third, we propose a reward bonus to help policy explore successful dialogs. Our approaches outperform the competitive pipeline systems from Takanobu et al. (2020) by big margins of 12% success rate in automatic system-wise evaluation and of 16% success rate in human evaluation on the standard multi-domain benchmark dataset MultiWOZ 2.1, and also outperform the recent state-of-the-art end-to-end trained model from DSTC9.

Why Do Local Methods Solve Nonconvex Problems?

Non-convex optimization is ubiquitous in modern machine learning. Researchers devise non-convex objective functions and optimize them using off-the-shelf optimizers such as stochastic gradient descent and its variants, which leverage the local geometry and update iteratively. Even though solving non-convex functions is NP-hard in the worst case, the optimization quality in practice is often not an issue -- optimizers are largely believed to find approximate global minima. Researchers hypothesize a unified explanation for this intriguing phenomenon: most of the local minima of the practically-used objectives are approximately global minima. We rigorously formalize it for concrete instances of machine learning problems.

Fine-Grained Gap-Dependent Bounds for Tabular MDPs via Adaptive Multi-Step Bootstrap

This paper presents a new model-free algorithm for episodic finite-horizon Markov Decision Processes (MDP), Adaptive Multi-step Bootstrap (AMB), which enjoys a stronger gap-dependent regret bound. The first innovation is to estimate the optimal $Q$-function by combining an optimistic bootstrap with an adaptive multi-step Monte Carlo rollout. The second innovation is to select the action with the largest confidence interval length among admissible actions that are not dominated by any other actions. We show when each state has a unique optimal action, AMB achieves a gap-dependent regret bound that only scales with the sum of the inverse of the sub-optimality gaps. In contrast, Simchowitz and Jamieson (2019) showed all upper-confidence-bound (UCB) algorithms suffer an additional $\Omega\left(\frac{S}{\Delta_{min}}\right)$ regret due to over-exploration where $\Delta_{min}$ is the minimum sub-optimality gap and $S$ is the number of states. We further show that for general MDPs, AMB suffers an additional $\frac{|Z_{mul}|}{\Delta_{min}}$ regret, where $Z_{mul}$ is the set of state-action pairs $(s,a)$'s satisfying $a$ is a non-unique optimal action for $s$. We complement our upper bound with a lower bound showing the dependency on $\frac{|Z_{mul}|}{\Delta_{min}}$ is unavoidable for any consistent algorithm. This lower bound also implies a separation between reinforcement learning and contextual bandits.

Provable Model-based Nonlinear Bandit and Reinforcement Learning: Shelve Optimism, Embrace Virtual Curvature

This paper studies model-based bandit and reinforcement learning (RL) with nonlinear function approximations. We propose to study convergence to approximate local maxima because we show that global convergence is statistically intractable even for one-layer neural net bandit with a deterministic reward. For both nonlinear bandit and RL, the paper presents a model-based algorithm, Virtual Ascent with Online Model Learner (ViOL), which provably converges to a local maximum with sample complexity that only depends on the sequential Rademacher complexity of the model class. Our results imply novel global or local regret bounds on several concrete settings such as linear bandit with finite or sparse model class, and two-layer neural net bandit. A key algorithmic insight is that optimism may lead to over-exploration even for two-layer neural net model class. On the other hand, for convergence to local maxima, it suffices to maximize the virtual return if the model can also reasonably predict the size of the gradient and Hessian of the real return.