OSM vs HD Maps: Map Representations for Trajectory Prediction

While High Definition (HD) Maps have long been favored for their precise depictions of static road elements, their accessibility constraints and susceptibility to rapid environmental changes impede the widespread deployment of autonomous driving, especially in the motion forecasting task. In this context, we propose to leverage OpenStreetMap (OSM) as a promising alternative to HD Maps for long-term motion forecasting. The contributions of this work are threefold: firstly, we extend the application of OSM to long-horizon forecasting, doubling the forecasting horizon compared to previous studies. Secondly, through an expanded receptive field and the integration of intersection priors, our OSM-based approach exhibits competitive performance, narrowing the gap with HD Map-based models. Lastly, we conduct an exhaustive context-aware analysis, providing deeper insights in motion forecasting across diverse scenarios as well as conducting class-aware comparisons. This research not only advances long-term motion forecasting with coarse map representations but additionally offers a potential scalable solution within the domain of autonomous driving.

Beyond the Imitation Game: Quantifying and extrapolating the capabilities of language models

Language models demonstrate both quantitative improvement and new qualitative capabilities with increasing scale. Despite their potentially transformative impact, these new capabilities are as yet poorly characterized. In order to inform future research, prepare for disruptive new model capabilities, and ameliorate socially harmful effects, it is vital that we understand the present and near-future capabilities and limitations of language models. To address this challenge, we introduce the Beyond the Imitation Game benchmark (BIG-bench). BIG-bench currently consists of 204 tasks, contributed by 442 authors across 132 institutions. Task topics are diverse, drawing problems from linguistics, childhood development, math, common-sense reasoning, biology, physics, social bias, software development, and beyond. BIG-bench focuses on tasks that are believed to be beyond the capabilities of current language models. We evaluate the behavior of OpenAI's GPT models, Google-internal dense transformer architectures, and Switch-style sparse transformers on BIG-bench, across model sizes spanning millions to hundreds of billions of parameters. In addition, a team of human expert raters performed all tasks in order to provide a strong baseline. Findings include: model performance and calibration both improve with scale, but are poor in absolute terms (and when compared with rater performance); performance is remarkably similar across model classes, though with benefits from sparsity; tasks that improve gradually and predictably commonly involve a large knowledge or memorization component, whereas tasks that exhibit "breakthrough" behavior at a critical scale often involve multiple steps or components, or brittle metrics; social bias typically increases with scale in settings with ambiguous context, but this can be improved with prompting.