Critic Experience Bank: Self-Evolving Step-Level Confidence Estimation for LLM Agents

LLM agents act in external environments where each action changes the state that later decisions condition on, and where a single wrong step can waste interaction budget or trigger irreversible side effects long before the final failure is observed. Reliable deployment therefore requires \emph{step-level confidence estimation}: a calibrated probability that each proposed action is productive, available \emph{before} the action is executed. Existing LLM confidence estimators are designed to score a response from the given prompt, but agent confidence also depends on execution consequences: whether similar actions in similar situations actually advanced the task after the environment responded. We introduce the \method (\methodshort), a self-evolving critic framework in which an LLM critic accumulates evidence from its own past judgments and their observed consequences. After each trajectory, a hindsight LLM that sees the full execution feedback votes on whether each step was productive. The resulting pseudo-labels populate a memory bank from which related productive and unproductive experiences are retrieved into the critic's prompt whenever a similar step recurs. \methodshort requires no training and uses no ground truth step labels. Across three agent benchmarks and three critic backbones, \methodshort attains the best calibration (ECE and Brier) and ranking (AUC) in every dataset--critic combination, reducing ECE by up to $54\%$ relative to the strongest training-free baseline.

Forced Deferral: Manipulating Routing Decisions in Multimodal LLM Cascades

While multimodal large language models (MLLMs) have shown strong visual reasoning abilities, serving a large model for every query is computationally expensive. MLLM cascades mitigate this cost by first querying a weak but cheaper model and deferring to a strong model when the weak model's output is unconfident. However, since the weak model's confidence directly controls compute allocation, these systems expose a new attack surface: an adversary can manipulate confidence so that their queries are consistently deferred to the strong model. Motivated by this vulnerability, we introduce the Forced Deferral Attack (FDA), an adversarial image attack that lowers the weak model's confidence and causes cascades to route queries to the strong model. FDA learns a universal border trigger by optimizing a temperature-flattened objective. This objective pushes the weak model's token distribution on triggered inputs toward less concentrated targets constructed from its clean responses. Across datasets, model families, and deferral metrics, FDA consistently increases strong-model routing while outperforming image-perturbation and prompt-injection baselines. These results show that MLLM cascades are vulnerable to attacks that manipulate compute allocation, forcing unintended strong-model usage without directly targeting answer correctness.

GenPT: Beyond Self-Report for Reliable LLM Psychometrics via Generative Projective Testing

Self-report questionnaires remain the prevailing tool for probing the psychological states of persona-conditioned agents (PC-Agents). However, classical instruments inherit two well-known threats: contamination from training corpora and directional bias driven by social-desirability or contextual framing. To overcome these methodological bottlenecks, we ask whether projective paradigms can be adapted into a robust psychometric tool. We introduce \textbf{GenPT} (Generative Projective Testing), which reformulates TAT, Rorschach, and SCT with newly generated stimuli and organizes assessment as a three-stage pipeline to derive standardized psychological indicators and target states. Evaluating PC-Agents induced via CharacterRAG and AnnaAgent profiles, we benchmark GenPT's reliability and validity against classical questionnaires. The results indicate that questionnaires exhibit systematic directional shifts under social-desirability framing, most strongly on suicide ideation. In contrast, GenPT's collected behavioral patterns stay near the symmetric baseline. Furthermore, under a longitudinal counselling context, GenPT-based depression assessment shifts by roughly an order of magnitude more than the questionnaire counterpart when Qwen3 serves as the backbone. Overall, GenPT complements self-report methods in scenarios where contamination resistance, bias asymmetry, and context sensitivity matter. Code and stimuli can be found at https://github.com/sci-m-wang/GenPT.

ForecastCompass: Guiding Agentic Forecasting with Adaptive Factor Memory

Agentic forecasting is important for decision-making in dynamic environments, but it remains challenging because agents must reason from incomplete, time-limited evidence and produce calibrated probabilities before outcomes are resolved. Memory provides a natural mechanism for transferring experience from resolved forecasts to future prediction tasks. However, existing agent-memory methods are not tailored to forecasting, as they typically store past interactions, reflections, or factual associations without explicitly representing reusable predictive factors or calibration knowledge. We propose ForecastCompass (FoCo), an adaptive factor-based memory framework for agentic forecasting. FoCo organizes forecasting experience with a hierarchical forecasting-task taxonomy, enabling retrieval task-relevant forecasting knowledge. It maintains two complementary memory components: factor memory, which captures reusable predictive dimensions, and reasoning memory, which encodes probability updating, uncertainty handling, and calibration principles. Using retrospective analyses as learning signals, FoCo iteratively revises memory through a verbalized memory-revision procedure, enabling the agent to accumulate transferable forecasting knowledge over time. Experiments on Prophet Arena and FutureX with GPT-5-mini and Gemini-2.5-Flash show that FoCo improves both probabilistic accuracy and calibration.

SkillGrad: Optimizing Agent Skills Like Gradient Descent

Agent skills provide a lightweight way to adapt LLM agents to specialized domains by storing reusable procedural knowledge in structured files. However, whether downloaded from third parties or self-generated, these skills are often unreliable, incomplete, or outdated. Existing skill-evolution methods often address these deficiencies through heuristic reflections without an explicit optimization formulation. In this paper, we propose SkillGrad, a gradient-descent-inspired framework for optimizing agent skills. SkillGrad treats the skill package as a structured parameter to optimize in a gradient descent fashion: task executions provide trajectory-level loss evidence, automatic diagnoses then provide text-based gradients that indicate the correction directions. To stabilize optimization across iterations, a momentum agent accumulates recurring diagnostic patterns into a persistent memory overlay. Finally, an LLM-based patcher executes the parameter update by applying layer-aware edits to the skill package. Evaluated on SpreadsheetBench Verified and WikiTableQuestions, SkillGrad consistently outperforms training-based skill evolution baselines across two backbone LLMs, improving over the strongest training-based baseline by $6.7$ percentage points on average. Ablations further show that momentum and contrastive diagnosis both contribute to the final skill quality.

The Illusion of Reasoning: Exposing Evasive Data Contamination in LLMs via Zero-CoT Truncation

Large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated impressive reasoning abilities across a wide range of tasks, but data contamination undermines the objective evaluation of these capabilities. This problem is further exacerbated by malicious model publishers who use evasive, or indirect, contamination strategies, such as paraphrasing benchmark data to evade existing detection methods and artificially boost leaderboard performance. Current approaches struggle to reliably detect such stealthy contamination. In this work, we uncover a critical phenomenon: a model's generated reasoning steps actively mask its underlying memorization. Inspired by this, we propose the Zero-CoT Probe (ZCP), a novel black-box detection method that deliberately truncates the entire Chain-of-Thought (CoT) process to expose latent shortcut mappings. To further isolate memorization from the model's intrinsic problem-solving capabilities, ZCP compares the model's zero-CoT performance on the original benchmark against an isomorphically perturbed reference dataset. Furthermore, we introduce Contamination Confidence, a metric that quantifies both the likelihood and severity of contamination, moving beyond simple binary classifications. Extensive experiments on both previously identified contaminated models and specially fine-tuned contaminated models demonstrate that ZCP robustly detects both direct and evasive data contamination. The code for ZCP is accessible at https://github.com/Yifan-Lan/zero-cot-probe.

CARV: A Diagnostic Benchmark for Compositional Analogical Reasoning in Multimodal LLMs

Analogical reasoning tests a fundamental aspect of human cognition: mapping the relation from one pair of objects to another. Existing evaluations of this ability in multimodal large language models (MLLMs) overlook the ability to compose rules from multiple sources, a critical component of higher-order intelligence. To close this gap, we introduce CARV (Compositional Analogical Reasoning in Vision), a novel task together with a 5,500-sample dataset as the first diagnostic benchmark. We extend the analogy from a single pair to multiple pairs, which requires MLLMs to extract symbolic rules from each pair and compose new transformations. Evaluation on the state-of-the-art MLLMs reveals a striking performance gap: even Gemini-2.5 Pro achieving only 40.4% accuracy, far below human-level performance of 100%. Diagnostic analysis shows two consistent failure modes: (1) decomposing visual changes into symbolic rules, and (2) maintaining robustness under diverse or complex settings, highlighting the limitations of current MLLMs on this task.

ReLope: KL-Regularized LoRA Probes for Multimodal LLM Routing

Routing has emerged as a promising strategy for balancing performance and cost in large language model (LLM) systems that combine lightweight models with powerful but expensive large models. Recent studies show that \emph{probe routing}, which predicts the correctness of a small model using its hidden states, provides an effective solution in text-only LLMs. However, we observe that these probes degrade substantially when applied to multimodal LLMs (MLLMs). Through empirical analysis, we find that the presence of visual inputs weakens the separability of correctness signals in hidden states, making them harder to extract using standard probe designs. To address this challenge, we introduce two complementary approaches for improving probe routing in MLLMs. First, we propose the \emph{Attention Probe}, which aggregates hidden states from the preceding layer based on attention scores to recover distributed correctness signals. Second, we present the \emph{KL-Regularized LoRA Probe (ReLope)}, which inserts a lightweight LoRA adapter and applies a KL regularizer to learn routing-aware representations. Comprehensive experiments show that our methods consistently outperform baselines, suggesting that improving the quality of hidden states is key to effective routing in MLLMs. Our code is available at https://github.com/Spinozaaa/ReLope.

MemCollab: Cross-Agent Memory Collaboration via Contrastive Trajectory Distillation

Large language model (LLM)-based agents rely on memory mechanisms to reuse knowledge from past problem-solving experiences. Existing approaches typically construct memory in a per-agent manner, tightly coupling stored knowledge to a single model's reasoning style. In modern deployments with heterogeneous agents, a natural question arises: can a single memory system be shared across different models? We found that naively transferring memory between agents often degrades performance, as such memory entangles task-relevant knowledge with agent-specific biases. To address this challenge, we propose MemCollab, a collaborative memory framework that constructs agent-agnostic memory by contrasting reasoning trajectories generated by different agents on the same task. This contrastive process distills abstract reasoning constraints that capture shared task-level invariants while suppressing agent-specific artifacts. We further introduce a task-aware retrieval mechanism that conditions memory access on task category, ensuring that only relevant constraints are used at inference time. Experiments on mathematical reasoning and code generation benchmarks demonstrate that MemCollab consistently improves both accuracy and inference-time efficiency across diverse agents, including cross-modal-family settings. Our results show that the collaboratively constructed memory can function as a shared reasoning resource for diverse LLM-based agents.

Mitigating topology biases in Graph Diffusion via Counterfactual Intervention

Graph diffusion models have gained significant attention in graph generation tasks, but they often inherit and amplify topology biases from sensitive attributes (e.g. gender, age, region), leading to unfair synthetic graphs. Existing fair graph generation using diffusion models is limited to specific graph-based applications with complete labels or requires simultaneous updates for graph structure and node attributes, making them unsuitable for general usage. To relax these limitations by applying the debiasing method directly on graph topology, we propose Fair Graph Diffusion Model (FairGDiff), a counterfactual-based one-step solution that mitigates topology biases while balancing fairness and utility. In detail, we construct a causal model to capture the relationship between sensitive attributes, biased link formation, and the generated graph structure. By answering the counterfactual question "Would the graph structure change if the sensitive attribute were different?", we estimate an unbiased treatment and incorporate it into the diffusion process. FairGDiff integrates counterfactual learning into both forward diffusion and backward denoising, ensuring that the generated graphs are independent of sensitive attributes while preserving structural integrity. Extensive experiments on real-world datasets demonstrate that FairGDiff achieves a superior trade-off between fairness and utility, outperforming existing fair graph generation methods while maintaining scalability.