From Model Explanation to Data Misinterpretation: Uncovering the Pitfalls of Post Hoc Explainers in Business Research

Machine learning models have been increasingly used in business research. However, most state-of-the-art machine learning models, such as deep neural networks and XGBoost, are black boxes in nature. Therefore, post hoc explainers that provide explanations for machine learning models by, for example, estimating numerical importance of the input features, have been gaining wide usage. Despite the intended use of post hoc explainers being explaining machine learning models, we found a growing trend in business research where post hoc explanations are used to draw inferences about the data. In this work, we investigate the validity of such use. Specifically, we investigate with extensive experiments whether the explanations obtained by the two most popular post hoc explainers, SHAP and LIME, provide correct information about the true marginal effects of X on Y in the data, which we call data-alignment. We then identify what factors influence the alignment of explanations. Finally, we propose a set of mitigation strategies to improve the data-alignment of explanations and demonstrate their effectiveness with real-world data in an econometric context. In spite of this effort, we nevertheless conclude that it is often not appropriate to infer data insights from post hoc explanations. We articulate appropriate alternative uses, the most important of which is to facilitate the proposition and subsequent empirical investigation of hypotheses. The ultimate goal of this paper is to caution business researchers against translating post hoc explanations of machine learning models into potentially false insights and understanding of data.

ADESSE: Advice Explanations in Complex Repeated Decision-Making Environments

In the evolving landscape of human-centered AI, fostering a synergistic relationship between humans and AI agents in decision-making processes stands as a paramount challenge. This work considers a problem setup where an intelligent agent comprising a neural network-based prediction component and a deep reinforcement learning component provides advice to a human decision-maker in complex repeated decision-making environments. Whether the human decision-maker would follow the agent's advice depends on their beliefs and trust in the agent and on their understanding of the advice itself. To this end, we developed an approach named ADESSE to generate explanations about the adviser agent to improve human trust and decision-making. Computational experiments on a range of environments with varying model sizes demonstrate the applicability and scalability of ADESSE. Furthermore, an interactive game-based user study shows that participants were significantly more satisfied, achieved a higher reward in the game, and took less time to select an action when presented with explanations generated by ADESSE. These findings illuminate the critical role of tailored, human-centered explanations in AI-assisted decision-making.

Safe POMDP Online Planning among Dynamic Agents via Adaptive Conformal Prediction

Online planning for partially observable Markov decision processes (POMDPs) provides efficient techniques for robot decision-making under uncertainty. However, existing methods fall short of preventing safety violations in dynamic environments. This work presents a novel safe POMDP online planning approach that offers probabilistic safety guarantees amidst environments populated by multiple dynamic agents. Our approach utilizes data-driven trajectory prediction models of dynamic agents and applies Adaptive Conformal Prediction (ACP) for assessing the uncertainties in these predictions. Leveraging the obtained ACP-based trajectory predictions, our approach constructs safety shields on-the-fly to prevent unsafe actions within POMDP online planning. Through experimental evaluation in various dynamic environments using real-world pedestrian trajectory data, the proposed approach has been shown to effectively maintain probabilistic safety guarantees while accommodating up to hundreds of dynamic agents.

Trust-Aware Motion Planning for Human-Robot Collaboration under Distribution Temporal Logic Specifications

Recent work has considered trust-aware decision making for human-robot collaboration (HRC) with a focus on model learning. In this paper, we are interested in enabling the HRC system to complete complex tasks specified using temporal logic that involve human trust. Since human trust in robots is not observable, we adopt the widely used partially observable Markov decision process (POMDP) framework for modelling the interactions between humans and robots. To specify the desired behaviour, we propose to use syntactically co-safe linear distribution temporal logic (scLDTL), a logic that is defined over predicates of states as well as belief states of partially observable systems. The incorporation of belief predicates in scLDTL enhances its expressiveness while simultaneously introducing added complexity. This also presents a new challenge as the belief predicates must be evaluated over the continuous (infinite) belief space. To address this challenge, we present an algorithm for solving the optimal policy synthesis problem. First, we enhance the belief MDP (derived by reformulating the POMDP) with a probabilistic labelling function. Then a product belief MDP is constructed between the probabilistically labelled belief MDP and the automaton translation of the scLDTL formula. Finally, we show that the optimal policy can be obtained by leveraging existing point-based value iteration algorithms with essential modifications. Human subject experiments with 21 participants on a driving simulator demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach.

Safe POMDP Online Planning via Shielding

Partially observable Markov decision processes (POMDPs) have been widely used in many robotic applications for sequential decision-making under uncertainty. POMDP online planning algorithms such as Partially Observable Monte-Carlo Planning (POMCP) can solve very large POMDPs with the goal of maximizing the expected return. But the resulting policies cannot provide safety guarantees that are imperative for real-world safety-critical tasks (e.g., autonomous driving). In this work, we consider safety requirements represented as almost-sure reach-avoid specifications (i.e., the probability to reach a set of goal states is one and the probability to reach a set of unsafe states is zero). We compute shields that restrict unsafe actions violating almost-sure reach-avoid specifications. We then integrate these shields into the POMCP algorithm for safe POMDP online planning. We propose four distinct shielding methods, differing in how the shields are computed and integrated, including factored variants designed to improve scalability. Experimental results on a set of benchmark domains demonstrate that the proposed shielding methods successfully guarantee safety (unlike the baseline POMCP without shielding) on large POMDPs, with negligible impact on the runtime for online planning.

CARNA: Characterizing Advanced heart failure Risk and hemodyNAmic phenotypes using learned multi-valued decision diagrams

Early identification of high risk heart failure (HF) patients is key to timely allocation of life-saving therapies. Hemodynamic assessments can facilitate risk stratification and enhance understanding of HF trajectories. However, risk assessment for HF is a complex, multi-faceted decision-making process that can be challenging. Previous risk models for HF do not integrate invasive hemodynamics or support missing data, and use statistical methods prone to bias or machine learning methods that are not interpretable. To address these limitations, this paper presents CARNA, a hemodynamic risk stratification and phenotyping framework for advanced HF that takes advantage of the explainability and expressivity of machine learned Multi-Valued Decision Diagrams (MVDDs). This interpretable framework learns risk scores that predict the probability of patient outcomes, and outputs descriptive patient phenotypes (sets of features and thresholds) that characterize each predicted risk score. CARNA incorporates invasive hemodynamics and can make predictions on missing data. The CARNA models were trained and validated using a total of five advanced HF patient cohorts collected from previous trials, and compared with six established HF risk scores and three traditional ML risk models. CARNA provides robust risk stratification, outperforming all previous benchmarks. Although focused on advanced HF, the CARNA framework is general purpose and can be used to learn risk stratifications for other diseases and medical applications.

Explainable Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning for Temporal Queries

As multi-agent reinforcement learning (MARL) systems are increasingly deployed throughout society, it is imperative yet challenging for users to understand the emergent behaviors of MARL agents in complex environments. This work presents an approach for generating policy-level contrastive explanations for MARL to answer a temporal user query, which specifies a sequence of tasks completed by agents with possible cooperation. The proposed approach encodes the temporal query as a PCTL logic formula and checks if the query is feasible under a given MARL policy via probabilistic model checking. Such explanations can help reconcile discrepancies between the actual and anticipated multi-agent behaviors. The proposed approach also generates correct and complete explanations to pinpoint reasons that make a user query infeasible. We have successfully applied the proposed approach to four benchmark MARL domains (up to 9 agents in one domain). Moreover, the results of a user study show that the generated explanations significantly improve user performance and satisfaction.

GlucoSynth: Generating Differentially-Private Synthetic Glucose Traces

In this paper we focus on the problem of generating high-quality, private synthetic glucose traces, a task generalizable to many other time series sources. Existing methods for time series data synthesis, such as those using Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs), are not able to capture the innate characteristics of glucose data and, in terms of privacy, either do not include any formal privacy guarantees or, in order to uphold a strong formal privacy guarantee, severely degrade the utility of the synthetic data. Therefore, in this paper we present GlucoSynth, a novel privacy-preserving GAN framework to generate synthetic glucose traces. The core intuition in our approach is to conserve relationships amongst motifs (glucose events) within the traces, in addition to typical temporal dynamics. Moreover, we integrate differential privacy into the framework to provide strong formal privacy guarantees. Finally, we provide a comprehensive evaluation on the real-world utility of the data using 1.2 million glucose traces

Towards Developing Safety Assurance Cases for Learning-Enabled Medical Cyber-Physical Systems

Machine Learning (ML) technologies have been increasingly adopted in Medical Cyber-Physical Systems (MCPS) to enable smart healthcare. Assuring the safety and effectiveness of learning-enabled MCPS is challenging, as such systems must account for diverse patient profiles and physiological dynamics and handle operational uncertainties. In this paper, we develop a safety assurance case for ML controllers in learning-enabled MCPS, with an emphasis on establishing confidence in the ML-based predictions. We present the safety assurance case in detail for Artificial Pancreas Systems (APS) as a representative application of learning-enabled MCPS, and provide a detailed analysis by implementing a deep neural network for the prediction in APS. We check the sufficiency of the ML data and analyze the correctness of the ML-based prediction using formal verification. Finally, we outline open research problems based on our experience in this paper.

Logic-based Reward Shaping for Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning

Reinforcement learning (RL) relies heavily on exploration to learn from its environment and maximize observed rewards. Therefore, it is essential to design a reward function that guarantees optimal learning from the received experience. Previous work has combined automata and logic based reward shaping with environment assumptions to provide an automatic mechanism to synthesize the reward function based on the task. However, there is limited work on how to expand logic-based reward shaping to Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning (MARL). The environment will need to consider the joint state in order to keep track of other agents if the task requires cooperation, thus suffering from the curse of dimensionality with respect to the number of agents. This project explores how logic-based reward shaping for MARL can be designed for different scenarios and tasks. We present a novel method for semi-centralized logic-based MARL reward shaping that is scalable in the number of agents and evaluate it in multiple scenarios.