CARNA: Characterizing Advanced heart failure Risk and hemodyNAmic phenotypes using learned multi-valued decision diagrams

Early identification of high risk heart failure (HF) patients is key to timely allocation of life-saving therapies. Hemodynamic assessments can facilitate risk stratification and enhance understanding of HF trajectories. However, risk assessment for HF is a complex, multi-faceted decision-making process that can be challenging. Previous risk models for HF do not integrate invasive hemodynamics or support missing data, and use statistical methods prone to bias or machine learning methods that are not interpretable. To address these limitations, this paper presents CARNA, a hemodynamic risk stratification and phenotyping framework for advanced HF that takes advantage of the explainability and expressivity of machine learned Multi-Valued Decision Diagrams (MVDDs). This interpretable framework learns risk scores that predict the probability of patient outcomes, and outputs descriptive patient phenotypes (sets of features and thresholds) that characterize each predicted risk score. CARNA incorporates invasive hemodynamics and can make predictions on missing data. The CARNA models were trained and validated using a total of five advanced HF patient cohorts collected from previous trials, and compared with six established HF risk scores and three traditional ML risk models. CARNA provides robust risk stratification, outperforming all previous benchmarks. Although focused on advanced HF, the CARNA framework is general purpose and can be used to learn risk stratifications for other diseases and medical applications.

GlucoSynth: Generating Differentially-Private Synthetic Glucose Traces

In this paper we focus on the problem of generating high-quality, private synthetic glucose traces, a task generalizable to many other time series sources. Existing methods for time series data synthesis, such as those using Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs), are not able to capture the innate characteristics of glucose data and, in terms of privacy, either do not include any formal privacy guarantees or, in order to uphold a strong formal privacy guarantee, severely degrade the utility of the synthetic data. Therefore, in this paper we present GlucoSynth, a novel privacy-preserving GAN framework to generate synthetic glucose traces. The core intuition in our approach is to conserve relationships amongst motifs (glucose events) within the traces, in addition to typical temporal dynamics. Moreover, we integrate differential privacy into the framework to provide strong formal privacy guarantees. Finally, we provide a comprehensive evaluation on the real-world utility of the data using 1.2 million glucose traces

Towards Developing Safety Assurance Cases for Learning-Enabled Medical Cyber-Physical Systems

Machine Learning (ML) technologies have been increasingly adopted in Medical Cyber-Physical Systems (MCPS) to enable smart healthcare. Assuring the safety and effectiveness of learning-enabled MCPS is challenging, as such systems must account for diverse patient profiles and physiological dynamics and handle operational uncertainties. In this paper, we develop a safety assurance case for ML controllers in learning-enabled MCPS, with an emphasis on establishing confidence in the ML-based predictions. We present the safety assurance case in detail for Artificial Pancreas Systems (APS) as a representative application of learning-enabled MCPS, and provide a detailed analysis by implementing a deep neural network for the prediction in APS. We check the sufficiency of the ML data and analyze the correctness of the ML-based prediction using formal verification. Finally, we outline open research problems based on our experience in this paper.