Space-Creating versus Dead Possession: An Off-Ball Possession-Quality Index for Broadcast Football

Ball possession is the most-cited and most-misleading number in football: 60% recycled in one's own half is not 60% spent pinning the opponent back. Existing event-based possession-value frameworks (expected threat, VAEP, on-ball value) price on-ball actions but ignore the off-ball question a sterile possession poses: did holding the ball create space, or was the circulation dead? We answer this in two layers. First, an event-side junk-possession index prices each possession sequence by its peak threat gain under an expected-threat grid and -- after reconstructing the live scoreline to exclude lead-protecting circulation -- flags low-threat sequences in tied-or-losing states. On the 2026 FIFA World Cup (103 matches, 206 team-matches) the flag correlates negatively with points (r=-0.37) and xG difference (r=-0.51, partly index-coupled). It is not a repackaging of on-ball value: with team offensive VAEP and field tilt held fixed, the junk flag stays strongly negatively associated with points (p<0.0001, also match-clustered) while VAEP is not significant -- in this same-match (descriptive) regression it adds information beyond this on-ball action-value model. Second, for a flagged window we resolve whether it was spatially dead or space-creating by projecting broadcast video to pitch coordinates and measuring a Space-Creation Index (SCI): a net pitch-control change capturing whether the possession seized space or pushed the opponent's block back. Across 31 of 35 flagged windows from nine World Cup matches (a purposive sample), 74% are spatially non-space-creating, 19% weak progression, and 6% space-creating windows the event flag alone would score as failure -- including a side with 73% of the ball that exited on penalties (two non-creating windows). The two layers separate space-creating-but-unconverted from sterile possession, a distinction event-only on-ball value cannot make.

Visual Distribution Anchoring for Efficient Prompt Tuning

Prompt tuning adapts vision--language models with few trainable parameters, but existing approaches trade off efficiency and adaptation: static textual prompts can overfit source classes, image-conditioned prompts add per-instance computation, and multimodal tuning modifies the visual branch. We propose VDA (Visual Distribution Anchoring), a training-free target adaptation framework that augments a frozen semantic classifier with class-level visual prototypes estimated offline from an unlabeled target pool. We first ask whether prototypes can be synthesized from class names. A text-to-centroid mapper reconstructs held-out source prototypes but fails under dataset shift because class names specify semantic identity, not target-domain appearance. An oracle analysis confirms that true target prototypes are highly discriminative. VDA therefore uses frozen semantic and domain-template classifiers to partition unlabeled target images into class-correlated groups. Confidence-ranked image features form normalized prototypes, fused with the semantic classifier using one global weight. Adaptation requires no target labels, target-side optimization, uniform class-prior assumption, iterative refinement, or test-query access, and yields a fixed, cacheable classifier. Controlled experiments show that class-specific partitioning drives gains and that visually local pseudo-label errors can remain useful despite being class-incorrect. Across ten ImageNet-to-target transfers, the same frozen design improves zero-shot CLIP, TCP, and MaPLe by 3.22, 3.39, and 3.35 points, respectively, improving nine of ten targets in every setting. Its visual correction further improves leakage-free PromptKD by 2.79 points, complementing zero-shot, source-prompted, multimodal-prompted, and target-distilled classifiers.

Training-Free Off-Screen Player Imputation for Broadcast-Based Spatial Football Analytics

Spatial football metrics such as pitch control assume access to the positions of all 22 players, yet the most widely available source of positional data -- the broadcast main camera -- shows only 10-16 of them at any moment. We quantify the resulting distortion with an open, reproducible benchmark: a simulated broadcast viewport applied to open full-pitch tracking data (Metrica Sports; three matches, one held out from method development). Ignoring off-screen players -- the visible-only baseline implied whenever a video-based game-state-reconstruction (GSR) pipeline adds no imputation layer -- inflates hidden-zone pitch-control error to 25.1-26.9 percentage points and a mean absolute control-share error of 11.1-13.4 points across the three matches. We then evaluate a ladder of training-free, online imputation baselines that use only observations from the match being analysed. The best overall on these decision-relevant metrics, role-anchored centroid voting (each visible player votes for the full-team centroid by subtracting its running role offset, attenuating the viewport-induced subset bias), roughly halves hidden-zone error (to 12.2-13.8 points) and cuts control-share error to 28-48% of the ignore policy at every viewport width from 36 m to 60 m in all three matches. For occlusions <=9.6 s -- the regime of the closest learned prior work -- it reaches binwise median position errors of 3.3-8.9 m; but 50-57% of hidden-player observations lie beyond that regime. Integrated end-to-end into a broadcast-video GSR pipeline, imputation moves a downstream possession-quality score (Space-Creation Index) by 15.6 and 17.2 points on two real World Cup broadcast windows, flipping the verdict class in one.

Beyond coauthorship: semantic structure and phantom collaborators in transportation research, 1967--2025

We present a semantic-structural atlas of transportation research built from 120{,}323 papers across 34 peer-reviewed journals published between 1967 and 2025, roughly an order of magnitude larger than and a decade beyond Sun and Rahwan's~(2017) coauthorship study. We use OpenAlex and Crossref as open, CC0-licensed data sources, resolve author identity through OpenAlex author IDs, ORCID records, and manual alias resolution, and embed every paper with SPECTER2 with Arora-style whitening concatenated with concept TF--IDF and venue linear-discriminant projections. On this substrate we report three findings. First, Leiden on the author-level semantic k-nearest-neighbor graph yields 23 topic communities that agree only weakly with the 172 coauthor communities (normalized mutual information $0.23$), opening room for a predictive layer that neither source encodes alone. Second, a multiplex Leiden partition combining both edge types recovers 181 communities and localizes where collaboration and topic structure decouple. Third -- the paper's core methodological contribution -- we define \emph{phantom collaborators}, pairs of authors who are top-$K$ semantic neighbors yet $\geq 3$ hops apart in the coauthor graph, and show via a temporal hold-out (training cutoff 2019) that phantom pairs become real coauthors in 2020--2025 at a rate $16$ to $33$ times above random, popularity-weighted, and same-venue baselines, with a $68$-fold monotone gradient between the highest- and lowest-similarity buckets. All artifacts are released as a live, reproducible web atlas at https://choi-seongjin.github.io/transport-atlas/.

Automated Detection of Multiple Sclerosis Lesions on 7-tesla MRI Using U-net and Transformer-based Segmentation

Ultra-high field 7-tesla (7T) MRI improves visualization of multiple sclerosis (MS) white matter lesions (WML) but differs sufficiently in contrast and artifacts from 1.5-3T imaging - suggesting that widely used automated segmentation tools may not translate directly. We analyzed 7T FLAIR scans and generated reference WML masks from Lesion Segmentation Tool (LST) outputs followed by expert manual revision. As external comparators, we applied LST-LPA and the more recent LST-AI ensemble, both originally developed on lower-field data. We then trained 3D UNETR and SegFormer transformer-based models on 7T FLAIR at multiple resolutions (0.5x0.5x0.5^3, 1.0x1.0x1.0^3, and 1.5x1.5x2.0^3) and evaluated all methods using voxel-wise and lesion-wise metrics from the BraTS 2023 framework. On the held-out test set at native 0.5x0.5x0.5^3 resolution, 7T-trained transformers achieved competitive overlap with LST-AI while recovering additional small lesions that were missed by classical methods, at the cost of some boundary variability and occasional artifact-related false positives. On a held-out 7 T test set, our best transformer model (SegFormer) achieved a voxel-wise Dice of 0.61 and lesion-wise Dice of 0.20, improving on the classical LST-LPA tool (Dice 0.39, lesion-wise Dice 0.02). Performance decreased for models trained on downsampled images, underscoring the value of native 7T resolution for small-lesion detection. By releasing our 7T-trained models, we aim to provide a reproducible, ready-to-use resource for automated lesion quantification in ultra-high field MS research (https://github.com/maynord/7T-MS-lesion-segmentation).

Weisfeiler and Lehman Go Categorical

While lifting map has significantly enhanced the expressivity of graph neural networks, extending this paradigm to hypergraphs remains fragmented. To address this, we introduce the categorical Weisfeiler-Lehman framework, which formalizes lifting as a functorial mapping from an arbitrary data category to the unifying category of graded posets. When applied to hypergraphs, this perspective allows us to systematically derive Hypergraph Isomorphism Networks, a family of neural architectures where the message passing topology is strictly determined by the choice of functor. We introduce two distinct functors from the category of hypergraphs: an incidence functor and a symmetric simplicial complex functor. While the incidence architecture structurally mirrors standard bipartite schemes, our functorial derivation enforces a richer information flow over the resulting poset, capturing complex intersection geometries often missed by existing methods. We theoretically characterize the expressivity of these models, proving that both the incidence-based and symmetric simplicial approaches subsume the expressive power of the standard Hypergraph Weisfeiler-Lehman test. Extensive experiments on real-world benchmarks validate these theoretical findings.

Weaver: Kronecker Product Approximations of Spatiotemporal Attention for Traffic Network Forecasting

Spatiotemporal forecasting on transportation networks is a complex task that requires understanding how traffic nodes interact within a dynamic, evolving system dictated by traffic flow dynamics and social behavioral patterns. The importance of transportation networks and ITS for modern mobility and commerce necessitates forecasting models that are not only accurate but also interpretable, efficient, and robust under structural or temporal perturbations. Recent approaches, particularly Transformer-based architectures, have improved predictive performance but often at the cost of high computational overhead and diminished architectural interpretability. In this work, we introduce Weaver, a novel attention-based model that applies Kronecker product approximations (KPA) to decompose the PN X PN spatiotemporal attention of O(P^2N^2) complexity into local P X P temporal and N X N spatial attention maps. This Kronecker attention map enables our Parallel-Kronecker Matrix-Vector product (P2-KMV) for efficient spatiotemporal message passing with O(P^2N + N^2P) complexity. To capture real-world traffic dynamics, we address the importance of negative edges in modeling traffic behavior by introducing Valence Attention using the continuous Tanimoto coefficient (CTC), which provides properties conducive to precise latent graph generation and training stability. To fully utilize the model's learning capacity, we introduce the Traffic Phase Dictionary for self-conditioning. Evaluations on PEMS-BAY and METR-LA show that Weaver achieves competitive performance across model categories while training more efficiently.

BO4Mob: Bayesian Optimization Benchmarks for High-Dimensional Urban Mobility Problem

We introduce \textbf{BO4Mob}, a new benchmark framework for high-dimensional Bayesian Optimization (BO), driven by the challenge of origin-destination (OD) travel demand estimation in large urban road networks. Estimating OD travel demand from limited traffic sensor data is a difficult inverse optimization problem, particularly in real-world, large-scale transportation networks. This problem involves optimizing over high-dimensional continuous spaces where each objective evaluation is computationally expensive, stochastic, and non-differentiable. BO4Mob comprises five scenarios based on real-world San Jose, CA road networks, with input dimensions scaling up to 10,100. These scenarios utilize high-resolution, open-source traffic simulations that incorporate realistic nonlinear and stochastic dynamics. We demonstrate the benchmark's utility by evaluating five optimization methods: three state-of-the-art BO algorithms and two non-BO baselines. This benchmark is designed to support both the development of scalable optimization algorithms and their application for the design of data-driven urban mobility models, including high-resolution digital twins of metropolitan road networks. Code and documentation are available at https://github.com/UMN-Choi-Lab/BO4Mob.

Federated Continual Recommendation

The increasing emphasis on privacy in recommendation systems has led to the adoption of Federated Learning (FL) as a privacy-preserving solution, enabling collaborative training without sharing user data. While Federated Recommendation (FedRec) effectively protects privacy, existing methods struggle with non-stationary data streams, failing to maintain consistent recommendation quality over time. On the other hand, Continual Learning Recommendation (CLRec) methods address evolving user preferences but typically assume centralized data access, making them incompatible with FL constraints. To bridge this gap, we introduce Federated Continual Recommendation (FCRec), a novel task that integrates FedRec and CLRec, requiring models to learn from streaming data while preserving privacy. As a solution, we propose F3CRec, a framework designed to balance knowledge retention and adaptation under the strict constraints of FCRec. F3CRec introduces two key components: Adaptive Replay Memory on the client side, which selectively retains past preferences based on user-specific shifts, and Item-wise Temporal Mean on the server side, which integrates new knowledge while preserving prior information. Extensive experiments demonstrate that F3CRec outperforms existing approaches in maintaining recommendation quality over time in a federated environment.

Hypergraph Neural Sheaf Diffusion: A Symmetric Simplicial Set Framework for Higher-Order Learning

The absence of intrinsic adjacency relations and orientation systems in hypergraphs creates fundamental challenges for constructing sheaf Laplacians of arbitrary degrees. We resolve these limitations through symmetric simplicial sets derived directly from hypergraphs, which encode all possible oriented subrelations within each hyperedge as ordered tuples. This construction canonically defines adjacency via facet maps while inherently preserving hyperedge provenance. We establish that the normalized degree zero sheaf Laplacian on our induced symmetric simplicial set reduces exactly to the traditional graph normalized sheaf Laplacian when restricted to graphs, validating its mathematical consistency with prior graph-based sheaf theory. Furthermore, the induced structure preserves all structural information from the original hypergraph, ensuring that every multi-way relational detail is faithfully retained. Leveraging this framework, we introduce Hypergraph Neural Sheaf Diffusion (HNSD), the first principled extension of Neural Sheaf Diffusion (NSD) to hypergraphs. HNSD operates via normalized degree zero sheaf Laplacians over symmetric simplicial sets, resolving orientation ambiguity and adjacency sparsity inherent to hypergraph learning. Experimental evaluations demonstrate HNSD's competitive performance across established benchmarks.