Estimating Tail Risks in Language Model Output Distributions

Language models are increasingly capable and are being rapidly deployed on a population-level scale. As a result, the safety of these models is increasingly high-stakes. Fortunately, advances in alignment have significantly reduced the likelihood of harmful model outputs. However, when models are queried billions of times in a day, even rare worst-case behaviors will occur. Current safety evaluations focus on capturing the distribution of inputs that yield harmful outputs. These evaluations disregard the probabilistic nature of models and their tail output behavior. To measure this tail risk, we propose a method to efficiently estimate the probability of harmful outputs for any input query. Instead of naive brute-force sampling from the target model, where harmful outputs could be rare, we operationalize importance sampling by creating unsafe versions of the target model. These unsafe versions enable sample-efficient estimation by making harmful outputs more probable. On benchmarks measuring misuse and misalignment, these estimates match brute-force Monte Carlo estimates using 10-20x fewer samples. For example, we can estimate probability of harmful outputs on the order of 10^-4 with just 500 samples. Additionally, we find that these harmfulness estimates can reveal the sensitivity of models to perturbations in model input and predict deployment risks. Our work demonstrates that accurate rare-event estimation is both critical and feasible for safety evaluations. Code is available at https://github.com/rangell/LMTailRisk

Whose Story Gets Told? Positionality and Bias in LLM Summaries of Life Narratives

Increasingly, studies are exploring using Large Language Models (LLMs) for accelerated or scaled qualitative analysis of text data. While we can compare LLM accuracy against human labels directly for deductive coding, or labeling text, it is more challenging to judge the ethics and effectiveness of using LLMs in abstractive methods such as inductive thematic analysis. We collaborate with psychologists to study the abstractive claims LLMs make about human life stories, asking, how does using an LLM as an interpreter of meaning affect the conclusions and perspectives of a study? We propose a summarization-based pipeline for surfacing biases in perspective-taking an LLM might employ in interpreting these life stories. We demonstrate that our pipeline can identify both race and gender bias with the potential for representational harm. Finally, we encourage the use of this analysis in future studies involving LLM-based interpretation of study participants' written text or transcribed speech to characterize a positionality portrait for the study.

Does AI See like Art Historians? Interpreting How Vision Language Models Recognize Artistic Style

VLMs have become increasingly proficient at a range of computer vision tasks, such as visual question answering and object detection. This includes increasingly strong capabilities in the domain of art, from analyzing artwork to generation of art. In an interdisciplinary collaboration between computer scientists and art historians, we characterize the mechanisms underlying VLMs' ability to predict artistic style and assess the extent to which they align with the criteria art historians use to reason about artistic style. We employ a latent-space decomposition approach to identify concepts that drive art style prediction and conduct quantitative evaluations, causal analysis and assessment by art historians. Our findings indicate that 73% of the extracted concepts are judged by art historians to exhibit a coherent and semantically meaningful visual feature and 90% of concepts used to predict style of a given artwork were judged relevant. In cases where an irrelevant concept was used to successfully predict style, art historians identified possible reasons for its success; for example, the model might "understand" a concept in more formal terms, such as dark/light contrasts.

LiveNewsBench: Evaluating LLM Web Search Capabilities with Freshly Curated News

Large Language Models (LLMs) with agentic web search capabilities show strong potential for tasks requiring real-time information access and complex fact retrieval, yet evaluating such systems remains challenging. We introduce \bench, a rigorous and regularly updated benchmark designed to assess the agentic web search abilities of LLMs. \bench automatically generates fresh question-answer pairs from recent news articles, ensuring that questions require information beyond an LLM's training data and enabling clear separation between internal knowledge and search capability. The benchmark features intentionally difficult questions requiring multi-hop search queries, page visits, and reasoning, making it well-suited for evaluating agentic search behavior. Our automated data curation and question generation pipeline enables frequent benchmark updates and supports construction of a large-scale training dataset for agentic web search models, addressing the scarcity of such data in the research community. To ensure reliable evaluation, we include a subset of human-verified samples in the test set. We evaluate a broad range of systems using \bench, including commercial and open-weight LLMs as well as LLM-based web search APIs. The leaderboard, datasets, and code are publicly available at livenewsbench.com.

Computational Representations of Character Significance in Novels

Characters in novels have typically been modeled based on their presence in scenes in narrative, considering aspects like their actions, named mentions, and dialogue. This conception of character places significant emphasis on the main character who is present in the most scenes. In this work, we instead adopt a framing developed from a new literary theory proposing a six-component structural model of character. This model enables a comprehensive approach to character that accounts for the narrator-character distinction and includes a component neglected by prior methods, discussion by other characters. We compare general-purpose LLMs with task-specific transformers for operationalizing this model of character on major 19th-century British realist novels. Our methods yield both component-level and graph representations of character discussion. We then demonstrate that these representations allow us to approach literary questions at scale from a new computational lens. Specifically, we explore Woloch's classic "the one vs the many" theory of character centrality and the gendered dynamics of character discussion.

LLMs as Science Journalists: Supporting Early-stage Researchers in Communicating Their Science to the Public

The scientific community needs tools that help early-stage researchers effectively communicate their findings and innovations to the public. Although existing general-purpose Large Language Models (LLMs) can assist in this endeavor, they are not optimally aligned for it. To address this, we propose a framework for training LLMs to emulate the role of a science journalist that can be used by early-stage researchers to learn how to properly communicate their papers to the general public. We evaluate the usefulness of our trained LLM Journalists in leading conversations with both simulated and human researchers. %compared to the general-purpose ones. Our experiments indicate that LLMs trained using our framework ask more relevant questions that address the societal impact of research, prompting researchers to clarify and elaborate on their findings. In the user study, the majority of participants who interacted with our trained LLM Journalist appreciated it more than interacting with general-purpose LLMs.

PoSh: Using Scene Graphs To Guide LLMs-as-a-Judge For Detailed Image Descriptions

While vision-language models (VLMs) have advanced into detailed image description, evaluation remains a challenge. Standard metrics (e.g. CIDEr, SPICE) were designed for short texts and tuned to recognize errors that are now uncommon, such as object misidentification. In contrast, long texts require sensitivity to attribute and relation attachments and scores that localize errors to particular text spans. In this work, we introduce PoSh, a metric for detailed image description that uses scene graphs as structured rubrics to guide LLMs-as-a-Judge, producing aggregate scores grounded in fine-grained errors (e.g. mistakes in compositional understanding). PoSh is replicable, interpretable and a better proxy for human raters than existing metrics (including GPT4o-as-a-Judge). To validate PoSh, we introduce a challenging new dataset, DOCENT. This novel benchmark contains artwork, paired with expert-written references, and model-generated descriptions, augmented with granular and coarse judgments of their quality from art history students. Thus, DOCENT enables evaluating both detailed image description metrics and detailed image description itself in a challenging new domain. We show that PoSh achieves stronger correlations (+0.05 Spearman $\rho$) with the human judgments in DOCENT than the best open-weight alternatives, is robust to image type (using CapArena, an existing dataset of web imagery) and is a capable reward function, outperforming standard supervised fine-tuning. Then, using PoSh, we characterize the performance of open and closed models in describing the paintings, sketches and statues in DOCENT and find that foundation models struggle to achieve full, error-free coverage of images with rich scene dynamics, establishing a demanding new task to gauge VLM progress. Through both PoSh and DOCENT, we hope to enable advances in important areas such as assistive text generation.

Guiding LLM Decision-Making with Fairness Reward Models

Large language models are increasingly used to support high-stakes decisions, potentially influencing who is granted bail or receives a loan. Naive chain-of-thought sampling can improve average decision accuracy, but has also been shown to amplify unfair bias. To address this challenge and enable the trustworthy use of reasoning models in high-stakes decision-making, we propose a framework for training a generalizable Fairness Reward Model (FRM). Our model assigns a fairness score to LLM reasoning, enabling the system to down-weight biased trajectories and favor equitable ones when aggregating decisions across reasoning chains. We show that a single Fairness Reward Model, trained on weakly supervised, LLM-annotated examples of biased versus unbiased reasoning, transfers across tasks, domains, and model families without additional fine-tuning. Applied to real-world decision-making tasks including recidivism prediction and social media moderation, we show that our approach consistently improves fairness while matching, or even surpassing, baseline accuracy.

AdvSumm: Adversarial Training for Bias Mitigation in Text Summarization

Large Language Models (LLMs) have achieved impressive performance in text summarization and are increasingly deployed in real-world applications. However, these systems often inherit associative and framing biases from pre-training data, leading to inappropriate or unfair outputs in downstream tasks. In this work, we present AdvSumm (Adversarial Summarization), a domain-agnostic training framework designed to mitigate bias in text summarization through improved generalization. Inspired by adversarial robustness, AdvSumm introduces a novel Perturber component that applies gradient-guided perturbations at the embedding level of Sequence-to-Sequence models, enhancing the model's robustness to input variations. We empirically demonstrate that AdvSumm effectively reduces different types of bias in summarization-specifically, name-nationality bias and political framing bias-without compromising summarization quality. Compared to standard transformers and data augmentation techniques like back-translation, AdvSumm achieves stronger bias mitigation performance across benchmark datasets.

Counterfactual Simulatability of LLM Explanations for Generation Tasks

LLMs can be unpredictable, as even slight alterations to the prompt can cause the output to change in unexpected ways. Thus, the ability of models to accurately explain their behavior is critical, especially in high-stakes settings. One approach for evaluating explanations is counterfactual simulatability, how well an explanation allows users to infer the model's output on related counterfactuals. Counterfactual simulatability has been previously studied for yes/no question answering tasks. We provide a general framework for extending this method to generation tasks, using news summarization and medical suggestion as example use cases. We find that while LLM explanations do enable users to better predict LLM outputs on counterfactuals in the summarization setting, there is significant room for improvement for medical suggestion. Furthermore, our results suggest that the evaluation for counterfactual simulatability may be more appropriate for skill-based tasks as opposed to knowledge-based tasks.