DISCRET: Synthesizing Faithful Explanations For Treatment Effect Estimation

Designing faithful yet accurate AI models is challenging, particularly in the field of individual treatment effect estimation (ITE). ITE prediction models deployed in critical settings such as healthcare should ideally be (i) accurate, and (ii) provide faithful explanations. However, current solutions are inadequate: state-of-the-art black-box models do not supply explanations, post-hoc explainers for black-box models lack faithfulness guarantees, and self-interpretable models greatly compromise accuracy. To address these issues, we propose DISCRET, a self-interpretable ITE framework that synthesizes faithful, rule-based explanations for each sample. A key insight behind DISCRET is that explanations can serve dually as database queries to identify similar subgroups of samples. We provide a novel RL algorithm to efficiently synthesize these explanations from a large search space. We evaluate DISCRET on diverse tasks involving tabular, image, and text data. DISCRET outperforms the best self-interpretable models and has accuracy comparable to the best black-box models while providing faithful explanations. DISCRET is available at https://github.com/wuyinjun-1993/DISCRET-ICML2024.

MoST: Multi-modality Scene Tokenization for Motion Prediction

Many existing motion prediction approaches rely on symbolic perception outputs to generate agent trajectories, such as bounding boxes, road graph information and traffic lights. This symbolic representation is a high-level abstraction of the real world, which may render the motion prediction model vulnerable to perception errors (e.g., failures in detecting open-vocabulary obstacles) while missing salient information from the scene context (e.g., poor road conditions). An alternative paradigm is end-to-end learning from raw sensors. However, this approach suffers from the lack of interpretability and requires significantly more training resources. In this work, we propose tokenizing the visual world into a compact set of scene elements and then leveraging pre-trained image foundation models and LiDAR neural networks to encode all the scene elements in an open-vocabulary manner. The image foundation model enables our scene tokens to encode the general knowledge of the open world while the LiDAR neural network encodes geometry information. Our proposed representation can efficiently encode the multi-frame multi-modality observations with a few hundred tokens and is compatible with most transformer-based architectures. To evaluate our method, we have augmented Waymo Open Motion Dataset with camera embeddings. Experiments over Waymo Open Motion Dataset show that our approach leads to significant performance improvements over the state-of-the-art.

Task-Oriented Cross-System Design for Timely and Accurate Modeling in the Metaverse

In this paper, we establish a task-oriented cross-system design framework to minimize the required packet rate for timely and accurate modeling of a real-world robotic arm in the Metaverse, where sensing, communication, prediction, control, and rendering are considered. To optimize a scheduling policy and prediction horizons, we design a Constraint Proximal Policy Optimization(C-PPO) algorithm by integrating domain knowledge from relevant systems into the advanced reinforcement learning algorithm, Proximal Policy Optimization(PPO). Specifically, the Jacobian matrix for analyzing the motion of the robotic arm is included in the state of the C-PPO algorithm, and the Conditional Value-at-Risk(CVaR) of the state-value function characterizing the long-term modeling error is adopted in the constraint. Besides, the policy is represented by a two-branch neural network determining the scheduling policy and the prediction horizons, respectively. To evaluate our algorithm, we build a prototype including a real-world robotic arm and its digital model in the Metaverse. The experimental results indicate that domain knowledge helps to reduce the convergence time and the required packet rate by up to 50%, and the cross-system design framework outperforms a baseline framework in terms of the required packet rate and the tail distribution of the modeling error.

WOMD-LiDAR: Raw Sensor Dataset Benchmark for Motion Forecasting

Widely adopted motion forecasting datasets substitute the observed sensory inputs with higher-level abstractions such as 3D boxes and polylines. These sparse shapes are inferred through annotating the original scenes with perception systems' predictions. Such intermediate representations tie the quality of the motion forecasting models to the performance of computer vision models. Moreover, the human-designed explicit interfaces between perception and motion forecasting typically pass only a subset of the semantic information present in the original sensory input. To study the effect of these modular approaches, design new paradigms that mitigate these limitations, and accelerate the development of end-to-end motion forecasting models, we augment the Waymo Open Motion Dataset (WOMD) with large-scale, high-quality, diverse LiDAR data for the motion forecasting task. The new augmented dataset WOMD-LiDAR consists of over 100,000 scenes that each spans 20 seconds, consisting of well-synchronized and calibrated high quality LiDAR point clouds captured across a range of urban and suburban geographies (https://waymo.com/open/data/motion/). Compared to Waymo Open Dataset (WOD), WOMD-LiDAR dataset contains 100x more scenes. Furthermore, we integrate the LiDAR data into the motion forecasting model training and provide a strong baseline. Experiments show that the LiDAR data brings improvement in the motion forecasting task. We hope that WOMD-LiDAR will provide new opportunities for boosting end-to-end motion forecasting models.

Covariate-Balancing-Aware Interpretable Deep Learning models for Treatment Effect Estimation

Estimating treatment effects is of great importance for many biomedical applications with observational data. Particularly, interpretability of the treatment effects is preferable for many biomedical researchers. In this paper, we first give a theoretical analysis and propose an upper bound for the bias of average treatment effect estimation under the strong ignorability assumption. The proposed upper bound consists of two parts: training error for factual outcomes, and the distance between treated and control distributions. We use the Weighted Energy Distance (WED) to measure the distance between two distributions. Motivated by the theoretical analysis, we implement this upper bound as an objective function being minimized by leveraging a novel additive neural network architecture, which combines the expressivity of deep neural network, the interpretability of generalized additive model, the sufficiency of the balancing score for estimation adjustment, and covariate balancing properties of treated and control distributions, for estimating average treatment effects from observational data. Furthermore, we impose a so-called weighted regularization procedure based on non-parametric theory, to obtain some desirable asymptotic properties. The proposed method is illustrated by re-examining the benchmark datasets for causal inference, and it outperforms the state-of-art.

MultiPath++: Efficient Information Fusion and Trajectory Aggregation for Behavior Prediction

Predicting the future behavior of road users is one of the most challenging and important problems in autonomous driving. Applying deep learning to this problem requires fusing heterogeneous world state in the form of rich perception signals and map information, and inferring highly multi-modal distributions over possible futures. In this paper, we present MultiPath++, a future prediction model that achieves state-of-the-art performance on popular benchmarks. MultiPath++ improves the MultiPath architecture by revisiting many design choices. The first key design difference is a departure from dense image-based encoding of the input world state in favor of a sparse encoding of heterogeneous scene elements: MultiPath++ consumes compact and efficient polylines to describe road features, and raw agent state information directly (e.g., position, velocity, acceleration). We propose a context-aware fusion of these elements and develop a reusable multi-context gating fusion component. Second, we reconsider the choice of pre-defined, static anchors, and develop a way to learn latent anchor embeddings end-to-end in the model. Lastly, we explore ensembling and output aggregation techniques -- common in other ML domains -- and find effective variants for our probabilistic multimodal output representation. We perform an extensive ablation on these design choices, and show that our proposed model achieves state-of-the-art performance on the Argoverse Motion Forecasting Competition and the Waymo Open Dataset Motion Prediction Challenge.

Cross-Domain Object Detection via Adaptive Self-Training

We tackle the problem of domain adaptation in object detection, where there is a significant domain shift between a source (a domain with supervision) and a target domain (a domain of interest without supervision). As a widely adopted domain adaptation method, the self-training teacher-student framework (a student model learns from pseudo labels generated from a teacher model) has yielded remarkable accuracy gain on the target domain. However, it still suffers from the large amount of low-quality pseudo labels (e.g., false positives) generated from the teacher due to its bias toward the source domain. To address this issue, we propose a self-training framework called Adaptive Unbiased Teacher (AUT) leveraging adversarial learning and weak-strong data augmentation during mutual learning to address domain shift. Specifically, we employ feature-level adversarial training in the student model, ensuring features extracted from the source and target domains share similar statistics. This enables the student model to capture domain-invariant features. Furthermore, we apply weak-strong augmentation and mutual learning between the teacher model on the target domain and the student model on both domains. This enables the teacher model to gradually benefit from the student model without suffering domain shift. We show that AUT demonstrates superiority over all existing approaches and even Oracle (fully supervised) models by a large margin. For example, we achieve 50.9% (49.3%) mAP on Foggy Cityscape (Clipart1K), which is 9.2% (5.2%) and 8.2% (11.0%) higher than previous state-of-the-art and Oracle, respectively

Edge of chaos as a guiding principle for modern neural network training

The success of deep neural networks in real-world problems has prompted many attempts to explain their training dynamics and generalization performance, but more guiding principles for the training of neural networks are still needed. Motivated by the edge of chaos principle behind the optimal performance of neural networks, we study the role of various hyperparameters in modern neural network training algorithms in terms of the order-chaos phase diagram. In particular, we study a fully analytical feedforward neural network trained on the widely adopted Fashion-MNIST dataset, and study the dynamics associated with the hyperparameters in back-propagation during the training process. We find that for the basic algorithm of stochastic gradient descent with momentum, in the range around the commonly used hyperparameter values, clear scaling relations are present with respect to the training time during the ordered phase in the phase diagram, and the model's optimal generalization power at the edge of chaos is similar across different training parameter combinations. In the chaotic phase, the same scaling no longer exists. The scaling allows us to choose the training parameters to achieve faster training without sacrificing performance. In addition, we find that the commonly used model regularization method - weight decay - effectively pushes the model towards the ordered phase to achieve better performance. Leveraging on this fact and the scaling relations in the other hyperparameters, we derived a principled guideline for hyperparameter determination, such that the model can achieve optimal performance by saturating it at the edge of chaos. Demonstrated on this simple neural network model and training algorithm, our work improves the understanding of neural network training dynamics, and can potentially be extended to guiding principles of more complex model architectures and algorithms.

Differentially Private Bayesian Neural Networks on Accuracy, Privacy and Reliability

Bayesian neural network (BNN) allows for uncertainty quantification in prediction, offering an advantage over regular neural networks that has not been explored in the differential privacy (DP) framework. We fill this important gap by leveraging recent development in Bayesian deep learning and privacy accounting to offer a more precise analysis of the trade-off between privacy and accuracy in BNN. We propose three DP-BNNs that characterize the weight uncertainty for the same network architecture in distinct ways, namely DP-SGLD (via the noisy gradient method), DP-BBP (via changing the parameters of interest) and DP-MC Dropout (via the model architecture). Interestingly, we show a new equivalence between DP-SGD and DP-SGLD, implying that some non-Bayesian DP training naturally allows for uncertainty quantification. However, the hyperparameters such as learning rate and batch size, can have different or even opposite effects in DP-SGD and DP-SGLD. Extensive experiments are conducted to compare DP-BNNs, in terms of privacy guarantee, prediction accuracy, uncertainty quantification, calibration, computation speed, and generalizability to network architecture. As a result, we observe a new tradeoff between the privacy and the reliability. When compared to non-DP and non-Bayesian approaches, DP-SGLD is remarkably accurate under strong privacy guarantee, demonstrating the great potential of DP-BNN in real-world tasks.

Video Question Answering with Phrases via Semantic Roles

Video Question Answering (VidQA) evaluation metrics have been limited to a single-word answer or selecting a phrase from a fixed set of phrases. These metrics limit the VidQA models' application scenario. In this work, we leverage semantic roles derived from video descriptions to mask out certain phrases, to introduce VidQAP which poses VidQA as a fill-in-the-phrase task. To enable evaluation of answer phrases, we compute the relative improvement of the predicted answer compared to an empty string. To reduce the influence of language bias in VidQA datasets, we retrieve a video having a different answer for the same question. To facilitate research, we construct ActivityNet-SRL-QA and Charades-SRL-QA and benchmark them by extending three vision-language models. We further perform extensive analysis and ablative studies to guide future work.