Learning Perturbations to Extrapolate Your LLM

Recent advancements in large language models demonstrate that injecting perturbations can substantially enhance extrapolation performance. However, current approaches often rely on discrete perturbations with fixed designs, which limits their flexibility. In this work, we propose a framework where token prefixes are perturbed by a learnable transformation of a continuous latent vector within an embedding space. To overcome the challenge of an intractable marginal likelihood, we derive unbiased estimating equations for model parameters and optimize them via stochastic gradient descent. We establish the statistical properties of the resulting estimator in over-parameterized regimes. Empirical evaluations on both synthetic and real-world datasets demonstrate that our proposal yields significant gains in out-of-domain settings over a range of state-of-the-art baseline methods.

Perturbation is All You Need for Extrapolating Language Models

We introduce a simple yet powerful framework for training large language models. In contrast to the standard autoregressive next-token prediction based on an exact prefix, we propose a perturbation-based procedure that first transforms the prefix into a semantic neighbor and then conditions on this perturbed variant for next-token prediction. This yields a hierarchical model with a pre-post-additive noise structure. Within this framework, we develop a rigorous theory of extrapolability, namely, the capacity of a model class to make reliable predictions for token sequences that lie outside the empirical support of the training corpus. We evaluate the finite-sample performance of the proposed procedure using both synthetic and real-world language data. Results show that the proposed method consistently improves out-of-support prediction while maintaining competitive in-support performance, demonstrating that perturbation offers a practical route to language modeling.

Segmenting Human-LLM Co-authored Text via Change Point Detection

The rise of large language models (LLMs) has created an urgent need to distinguish between human-written and LLM-generated text to ensure authenticity and societal trust. Existing detectors typically provide a binary classification for an entire passage; however, this is insufficient for human--LLM co-authored text, where the objective is to localize specific segments authored by humans or LLMs. To bridge this gap, we propose algorithms to segment text into human- and LLM-authored pieces. Our key observation is that such a segmentation task is conceptually similar to classical change point detection in time-series analysis. Leveraging this analogy, we adapt change point detection to LLM-generated text detection, develop a weighted algorithm and a generalized algorithm to accommodate heterogeneous detection score variability, and establish the minimax optimality of our procedure. Empirically, we demonstrate the strong performance of our approach against a wide range of existing baselines.

Demystifying Group Relative Policy Optimization: Its Policy Gradient is a U-Statistic

Group relative policy optimization (GRPO), a core methodological component of DeepSeekMath and DeepSeek-R1, has emerged as a cornerstone for scaling reasoning capabilities of large language models. Despite its widespread adoption and the proliferation of follow-up works, the theoretical properties of GRPO remain less studied. This paper provides a unified framework to understand GRPO through the lens of classical U-statistics. We demonstrate that the GRPO policy gradient is inherently a U-statistic, allowing us to characterize its mean squared error (MSE), derive the finite-sample error bound and asymptotic distribution of the suboptimality gap for its learned policy. Our findings reveal that GRPO is asymptotically equivalent to an oracle policy gradient algorithm -- one with access to a value function that quantifies the goodness of its learning policy at each training iteration -- and achieves asymptotically optimal performance within a broad class of policy gradient algorithms. Furthermore, we establish a universal scaling law that offers principled guidance for selecting the optimal group size. Empirical experiments further validate our theoretical findings, demonstrating that the optimal group size is universal, and verify the oracle property of GRPO.

A Difference-in-Difference Approach to Detecting AI-Generated Images

Diffusion models are able to produce AI-generated images that are almost indistinguishable from real ones. This raises concerns about their potential misuse and poses substantial challenges for detecting them. Many existing detectors rely on reconstruction error -- the difference between the input image and its reconstructed version -- as the basis for distinguishing real from fake images. However, these detectors become less effective as modern AI-generated images become increasingly similar to real ones. To address this challenge, we propose a novel difference-in-difference method. Instead of directly using the reconstruction error (a first-order difference), we compute the difference in reconstruction error -- a second-order difference -- for variance reduction and improving detection accuracy. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our method achieves strong generalization performance, enabling reliable detection of AI-generated images in the era of generative AI.

Learn-to-Distance: Distance Learning for Detecting LLM-Generated Text

Modern large language models (LLMs) such as GPT, Claude, and Gemini have transformed the way we learn, work, and communicate. Yet, their ability to produce highly human-like text raises serious concerns about misinformation and academic integrity, making it an urgent need for reliable algorithms to detect LLM-generated content. In this paper, we start by presenting a geometric approach to demystify rewrite-based detection algorithms, revealing their underlying rationale and demonstrating their generalization ability. Building on this insight, we introduce a novel rewrite-based detection algorithm that adaptively learns the distance between the original and rewritten text. Theoretically, we demonstrate that employing an adaptively learned distance function is more effective for detection than using a fixed distance. Empirically, we conduct extensive experiments with over 100 settings, and find that our approach demonstrates superior performance over baseline algorithms in the majority of scenarios. In particular, it achieves relative improvements from 57.8\% to 80.6\% over the strongest baseline across different target LLMs (e.g., GPT, Claude, and Gemini).

Detecting LLM-Generated Text with Performance Guarantees

Large language models (LLMs) such as GPT, Claude, Gemini, and Grok have been deeply integrated into our daily life. They now support a wide range of tasks -- from dialogue and email drafting to assisting with teaching and coding, serving as search engines, and much more. However, their ability to produce highly human-like text raises serious concerns, including the spread of fake news, the generation of misleading governmental reports, and academic misconduct. To address this practical problem, we train a classifier to determine whether a piece of text is authored by an LLM or a human. Our detector is deployed on an online CPU-based platform https://huggingface.co/spaces/stats-powered-ai/StatDetectLLM, and contains three novelties over existing detectors: (i) it does not rely on auxiliary information, such as watermarks or knowledge of the specific LLM used to generate the text; (ii) it more effectively distinguishes between human- and LLM-authored text; and (iii) it enables statistical inference, which is largely absent in the current literature. Empirically, our classifier achieves higher classification accuracy compared to existing detectors, while maintaining type-I error control, high statistical power, and computational efficiency.

MiniMax-M1: Scaling Test-Time Compute Efficiently with Lightning Attention

We introduce MiniMax-M1, the world's first open-weight, large-scale hybrid-attention reasoning model. MiniMax-M1 is powered by a hybrid Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) architecture combined with a lightning attention mechanism. The model is developed based on our previous MiniMax-Text-01 model, which contains a total of 456 billion parameters with 45.9 billion parameters activated per token. The M1 model natively supports a context length of 1 million tokens, 8x the context size of DeepSeek R1. Furthermore, the lightning attention mechanism in MiniMax-M1 enables efficient scaling of test-time compute. These properties make M1 particularly suitable for complex tasks that require processing long inputs and thinking extensively. MiniMax-M1 is trained using large-scale reinforcement learning (RL) on diverse problems including sandbox-based, real-world software engineering environments. In addition to M1's inherent efficiency advantage for RL training, we propose CISPO, a novel RL algorithm to further enhance RL efficiency. CISPO clips importance sampling weights rather than token updates, outperforming other competitive RL variants. Combining hybrid-attention and CISPO enables MiniMax-M1's full RL training on 512 H800 GPUs to complete in only three weeks, with a rental cost of just $534,700. We release two versions of MiniMax-M1 models with 40K and 80K thinking budgets respectively, where the 40K model represents an intermediate phase of the 80K training. Experiments on standard benchmarks show that our models are comparable or superior to strong open-weight models such as the original DeepSeek-R1 and Qwen3-235B, with particular strengths in complex software engineering, tool utilization, and long-context tasks. We publicly release MiniMax-M1 at https://github.com/MiniMax-AI/MiniMax-M1.

Demystifying the Paradox of Importance Sampling with an Estimated History-Dependent Behavior Policy in Off-Policy Evaluation

This paper studies off-policy evaluation (OPE) in reinforcement learning with a focus on behavior policy estimation for importance sampling. Prior work has shown empirically that estimating a history-dependent behavior policy can lead to lower mean squared error (MSE) even when the true behavior policy is Markovian. However, the question of why the use of history should lower MSE remains open. In this paper, we theoretically demystify this paradox by deriving a bias-variance decomposition of the MSE of ordinary importance sampling (IS) estimators, demonstrating that history-dependent behavior policy estimation decreases their asymptotic variances while increasing their finite-sample biases. Additionally, as the estimated behavior policy conditions on a longer history, we show a consistent decrease in variance. We extend these findings to a range of other OPE estimators, including the sequential IS estimator, the doubly robust estimator and the marginalized IS estimator, with the behavior policy estimated either parametrically or non-parametrically.

Semi-pessimistic Reinforcement Learning

Offline reinforcement learning (RL) aims to learn an optimal policy from pre-collected data. However, it faces challenges of distributional shift, where the learned policy may encounter unseen scenarios not covered in the offline data. Additionally, numerous applications suffer from a scarcity of labeled reward data. Relying on labeled data alone often leads to a narrow state-action distribution, further amplifying the distributional shift, and resulting in suboptimal policy learning. To address these issues, we first recognize that the volume of unlabeled data is typically substantially larger than that of labeled data. We then propose a semi-pessimistic RL method to effectively leverage abundant unlabeled data. Our approach offers several advantages. It considerably simplifies the learning process, as it seeks a lower bound of the reward function, rather than that of the Q-function or state transition function. It is highly flexible, and can be integrated with a range of model-free and model-based RL algorithms. It enjoys the guaranteed improvement when utilizing vast unlabeled data, but requires much less restrictive conditions. We compare our method with a number of alternative solutions, both analytically and numerically, and demonstrate its clear competitiveness. We further illustrate with an application to adaptive deep brain stimulation for Parkinson's disease.