Robust Learning of Heterogeneous Dynamic Systems

Ordinary differential equations (ODEs) provide a powerful framework for modeling dynamic systems arising in a wide range of scientific domains. However, most existing ODE methods focus on a single system, and do not adequately address the problem of learning shared patterns from multiple heterogeneous dynamic systems. In this article, we propose a novel distributionally robust learning approach for modeling heterogeneous ODE systems. Specifically, we construct a robust dynamic system by maximizing a worst-case reward over an uncertainty class formed by convex combinations of the derivatives of trajectories. We show the resulting estimator admits an explicit weighted average representation, where the weights are obtained from a quadratic optimization that balances information across multiple data sources. We further develop a bi-level stabilization procedure to address potential instability in estimation. We establish rigorous theoretical guarantees for the proposed method, including consistency of the stabilized weights, error bound for robust trajectory estimation, and asymptotical validity of pointwise confidence interval. We demonstrate that the proposed method considerably improves the generalization performance compared to the alternative solutions through both extensive simulations and the analysis of an intracranial electroencephalogram data.

Statistical Learning for Latent Embedding Alignment with Application to Brain Encoding and Decoding

Brain encoding and decoding aims to understand the relationship between external stimuli and brain activities, and is a fundamental problem in neuroscience. In this article, we study latent embedding alignment for brain encoding and decoding, with a focus on improving sample efficiency under limited fMRI-stimulus paired data and substantial subject heterogeneity. We propose a lightweight alignment framework equipped with two statistical learning components: inverse semi-supervised learning that leverages abundant unpaired stimulus embeddings through inverse mapping and residual debiasing, and meta transfer learning that borrows strength from pretrained models across subjects via sparse aggregation and residual correction. Both methods operate exclusively at the alignment stage while keeping encoders and decoders frozen, allowing for efficient computation, modular deployment, and rigorous theoretical analysis. We establish finite-sample generalization bounds and safety guarantees, and demonstrate competitive empirical performance on the large-scale fMRI-image reconstruction benchmark data.

Statistical Opportunities in Neuroimaging

Neuroimaging has profoundly enhanced our understanding of the human brain by characterizing its structure, function, and connectivity through modalities like MRI, fMRI, EEG, and PET. These technologies have enabled major breakthroughs across the lifespan, from early brain development to neurodegenerative and neuropsychiatric disorders. Despite these advances, the brain is a complex, multiscale system, and neuroimaging measurements are correspondingly high-dimensional. This creates major statistical challenges, including measurement noise, motion-related artifacts, substantial inter-subject and site/scanner variability, and the sheer scale of modern studies. This paper explores statistical opportunities and challenges in neuroimaging across four key areas: (i) brain development from birth to age 20, (ii) the adult and aging brain, (iii) neurodegeneration and neuropsychiatric disorders, and (iv) brain encoding and decoding. After a quick tutorial on major imaging technologies, we review cutting-edge studies, underscore data and modeling challenges, and highlight research opportunities for statisticians. We conclude by emphasizing that close collaboration among statisticians, neuroscientists, and clinicians is essential for translating neuroimaging advances into improved diagnostics, deeper mechanistic insight, and more personalized treatments.

Semi-pessimistic Reinforcement Learning

Offline reinforcement learning (RL) aims to learn an optimal policy from pre-collected data. However, it faces challenges of distributional shift, where the learned policy may encounter unseen scenarios not covered in the offline data. Additionally, numerous applications suffer from a scarcity of labeled reward data. Relying on labeled data alone often leads to a narrow state-action distribution, further amplifying the distributional shift, and resulting in suboptimal policy learning. To address these issues, we first recognize that the volume of unlabeled data is typically substantially larger than that of labeled data. We then propose a semi-pessimistic RL method to effectively leverage abundant unlabeled data. Our approach offers several advantages. It considerably simplifies the learning process, as it seeks a lower bound of the reward function, rather than that of the Q-function or state transition function. It is highly flexible, and can be integrated with a range of model-free and model-based RL algorithms. It enjoys the guaranteed improvement when utilizing vast unlabeled data, but requires much less restrictive conditions. We compare our method with a number of alternative solutions, both analytically and numerically, and demonstrate its clear competitiveness. We further illustrate with an application to adaptive deep brain stimulation for Parkinson's disease.

Incentivizing Truthful Language Models via Peer Elicitation Games

Large Language Models (LLMs) have demonstrated strong generative capabilities but remain prone to inconsistencies and hallucinations. We introduce Peer Elicitation Games (PEG), a training-free, game-theoretic framework for aligning LLMs through a peer elicitation mechanism involving a generator and multiple discriminators instantiated from distinct base models. Discriminators interact in a peer evaluation setting, where rewards are computed using a determinant-based mutual information score that provably incentivizes truthful reporting without requiring ground-truth labels. We establish theoretical guarantees showing that each agent, via online learning, achieves sublinear regret in the sense their cumulative performance approaches that of the best fixed truthful strategy in hindsight. Moreover, we prove last-iterate convergence to a truthful Nash equilibrium, ensuring that the actual policies used by agents converge to stable and truthful behavior over time. Empirical evaluations across multiple benchmarks demonstrate significant improvements in factual accuracy. These results position PEG as a practical approach for eliciting truthful behavior from LLMs without supervision or fine-tuning.

Residual Feature Integration is Sufficient to Prevent Negative Transfer

Transfer learning typically leverages representations learned from a source domain to improve performance on a target task. A common approach is to extract features from a pre-trained model and directly apply them for target prediction. However, this strategy is prone to negative transfer where the source representation fails to align with the target distribution. In this article, we propose Residual Feature Integration (REFINE), a simple yet effective method designed to mitigate negative transfer. Our approach combines a fixed source-side representation with a trainable target-side encoder and fits a shallow neural network on the resulting joint representation, which adapts to the target domain while preserving transferable knowledge from the source domain. Theoretically, we prove that REFINE is sufficient to prevent negative transfer under mild conditions, and derive the generalization bound demonstrating its theoretical benefit. Empirically, we show that REFINE consistently enhances performance across diverse application and data modalities including vision, text, and tabular data, and outperforms numerous alternative solutions. Our method is lightweight, architecture-agnostic, and robust, making it a valuable addition to the existing transfer learning toolbox.

Fairness-aware organ exchange and kidney paired donation

The kidney paired donation (KPD) program provides an innovative solution to overcome incompatibility challenges in kidney transplants by matching incompatible donor-patient pairs and facilitating kidney exchanges. To address unequal access to transplant opportunities, there are two widely used fairness criteria: group fairness and individual fairness. However, these criteria do not consider protected patient features, which refer to characteristics legally or ethically recognized as needing protection from discrimination, such as race and gender. Motivated by the calibration principle in machine learning, we introduce a new fairness criterion: the matching outcome should be conditionally independent of the protected feature, given the sensitization level. We integrate this fairness criterion as a constraint within the KPD optimization framework and propose a computationally efficient solution. Theoretically, we analyze the associated price of fairness using random graph models. Empirically, we compare our fairness criterion with group fairness and individual fairness through both simulations and a real-data example.

A Statistical Hypothesis Testing Framework for Data Misappropriation Detection in Large Language Models

Large Language Models (LLMs) are rapidly gaining enormous popularity in recent years. However, the training of LLMs has raised significant privacy and legal concerns, particularly regarding the inclusion of copyrighted materials in their training data without proper attribution or licensing, which falls under the broader issue of data misappropriation. In this article, we focus on a specific problem of data misappropriation detection, namely, to determine whether a given LLM has incorporated data generated by another LLM. To address this issue, we propose embedding watermarks into the copyrighted training data and formulating the detection of data misappropriation as a hypothesis testing problem. We develop a general statistical testing framework, construct a pivotal statistic, determine the optimal rejection threshold, and explicitly control the type I and type II errors. Furthermore, we establish the asymptotic optimality properties of the proposed tests, and demonstrate its empirical effectiveness through intensive numerical experiments.

Conformal Diffusion Models for Individual Treatment Effect Estimation and Inference

Estimating treatment effects from observational data is of central interest across numerous application domains. Individual treatment effect offers the most granular measure of treatment effect on an individual level, and is the most useful to facilitate personalized care. However, its estimation and inference remain underdeveloped due to several challenges. In this article, we propose a novel conformal diffusion model-based approach that addresses those intricate challenges. We integrate the highly flexible diffusion modeling, the model-free statistical inference paradigm of conformal inference, along with propensity score and covariate local approximation that tackle distributional shifts. We unbiasedly estimate the distributions of potential outcomes for individual treatment effect, construct an informative confidence interval, and establish rigorous theoretical guarantees. We demonstrate the competitive performance of the proposed method over existing solutions through extensive numerical studies.

Synthetic Oversampling: Theory and A Practical Approach Using LLMs to Address Data Imbalance

Imbalanced data and spurious correlations are common challenges in machine learning and data science. Oversampling, which artificially increases the number of instances in the underrepresented classes, has been widely adopted to tackle these challenges. In this article, we introduce OPAL (\textbf{O}versam\textbf{P}ling with \textbf{A}rtificial \textbf{L}LM-generated data), a systematic oversampling approach that leverages the capabilities of large language models (LLMs) to generate high-quality synthetic data for minority groups. Recent studies on synthetic data generation using deep generative models mostly target prediction tasks. Our proposal differs in that we focus on handling imbalanced data and spurious correlations. More importantly, we develop a novel theory that rigorously characterizes the benefits of using the synthetic data, and shows the capacity of transformers in generating high-quality synthetic data for both labels and covariates. We further conduct intensive numerical experiments to demonstrate the efficacy of our proposed approach compared to some representative alternative solutions.