Streaming PAC-Bayes Gaussian process regression with a performance guarantee for online decision making

As a powerful Bayesian non-parameterized algorithm, the Gaussian process (GP) has performed a significant role in Bayesian optimization and signal processing. GPs have also advanced online decision-making systems because their posterior distribution has a closed-form solution. However, its training and inference process requires all historic data to be stored and the GP model to be trained from scratch. For those reasons, several online GP algorithms, such as O-SGPR and O-SVGP, have been specifically designed for streaming settings. In this paper, we present a new theoretical framework for online GPs based on the online probably approximately correct (PAC) Bayes theory. The framework offers both a guarantee of generalized performance and good accuracy. Instead of minimizing the marginal likelihood, our algorithm optimizes both the empirical risk function and a regularization item, which is in proportion to the divergence between the prior distribution and posterior distribution of parameters. In addition to its theoretical appeal, the algorithm performs well empirically on several regression datasets. Compared to other online GP algorithms, ours yields a generalization guarantee and very competitive accuracy.

Learning from the Dark: Boosting Graph Convolutional Neural Networks with Diverse Negative Samples

Graph Convolutional Neural Networks (GCNs) has been generally accepted to be an effective tool for node representations learning. An interesting way to understand GCNs is to think of them as a message passing mechanism where each node updates its representation by accepting information from its neighbours (also known as positive samples). However, beyond these neighbouring nodes, graphs have a large, dark, all-but forgotten world in which we find the non-neighbouring nodes (negative samples). In this paper, we show that this great dark world holds a substantial amount of information that might be useful for representation learning. Most specifically, it can provide negative information about the node representations. Our overall idea is to select appropriate negative samples for each node and incorporate the negative information contained in these samples into the representation updates. Moreover, we show that the process of selecting the negative samples is not trivial. Our theme therefore begins by describing the criteria for a good negative sample, followed by a determinantal point process algorithm for efficiently obtaining such samples. A GCN, boosted by diverse negative samples, then jointly considers the positive and negative information when passing messages. Experimental evaluations show that this idea not only improves the overall performance of standard representation learning but also significantly alleviates over-smoothing problems.

Multi-class Classification with Fuzzy-feature Observations: Theory and Algorithms

The theoretical analysis of multi-class classification has proved that the existing multi-class classification methods can train a classifier with high classification accuracy on the test set, when the instances are precise in the training and test sets with same distribution and enough instances can be collected in the training set. However, one limitation with multi-class classification has not been solved: how to improve the classification accuracy of multi-class classification problems when only imprecise observations are available. Hence, in this paper, we propose a novel framework to address a new realistic problem called multi-class classification with imprecise observations (MCIMO), where we need to train a classifier with fuzzy-feature observations. Firstly, we give the theoretical analysis of the MCIMO problem based on fuzzy Rademacher complexity. Then, two practical algorithms based on support vector machine and neural networks are constructed to solve the proposed new problem. Experiments on both synthetic and real-world datasets verify the rationality of our theoretical analysis and the efficacy of the proposed algorithms.

Bayesian Transfer Learning: An Overview of Probabilistic Graphical Models for Transfer Learning

Transfer learning where the behavior of extracting transferable knowledge from the source domain(s) and reusing this knowledge to target domain has become a research area of great interest in the field of artificial intelligence. Probabilistic graphical models (PGMs) have been recognized as a powerful tool for modeling complex systems with many advantages, e.g., the ability to handle uncertainty and possessing good interpretability. Considering the success of these two aforementioned research areas, it seems natural to apply PGMs to transfer learning. However, although there are already some excellent PGMs specific to transfer learning in the literature, the potential of PGMs for this problem is still grossly underestimated. This paper aims to boost the development of PGMs for transfer learning by 1) examining the pilot studies on PGMs specific to transfer learning, i.e., analyzing and summarizing the existing mechanisms particularly designed for knowledge transfer; 2) discussing examples of real-world transfer problems where existing PGMs have been successfully applied; and 3) exploring several potential research directions on transfer learning using PGM.

Deep Bayesian Estimation for Dynamic Treatment Regimes with a Long Follow-up Time

Causal effect estimation for dynamic treatment regimes (DTRs) contributes to sequential decision making. However, censoring and time-dependent confounding under DTRs are challenging as the amount of observational data declines over time due to a reducing sample size but the feature dimension increases over time. Long-term follow-up compounds these challenges. Another challenge is the highly complex relationships between confounders, treatments, and outcomes, which causes the traditional and commonly used linear methods to fail. We combine outcome regression models with treatment models for high dimensional features using uncensored subjects that are small in sample size and we fit deep Bayesian models for outcome regression models to reveal the complex relationships between confounders, treatments, and outcomes. Also, the developed deep Bayesian models can model uncertainty and output the prediction variance which is essential for the safety-aware applications, such as self-driving cars and medical treatment design. The experimental results on medical simulations of HIV treatment show the ability of the proposed method to obtain stable and accurate dynamic causal effect estimation from observational data, especially with long-term follow-up. Our technique provides practical guidance for sequential decision making, and policy-making.

Learning Bounds for Open-Set Learning

Traditional supervised learning aims to train a classifier in the closed-set world, where training and test samples share the same label space. In this paper, we target a more challenging and realistic setting: open-set learning (OSL), where there exist test samples from the classes that are unseen during training. Although researchers have designed many methods from the algorithmic perspectives, there are few methods that provide generalization guarantees on their ability to achieve consistent performance on different training samples drawn from the same distribution. Motivated by the transfer learning and probably approximate correct (PAC) theory, we make a bold attempt to study OSL by proving its generalization error-given training samples with size n, the estimation error will get close to order O_p(1/\sqrt{n}). This is the first study to provide a generalization bound for OSL, which we do by theoretically investigating the risk of the target classifier on unknown classes. According to our theory, a novel algorithm, called auxiliary open-set risk (AOSR) is proposed to address the OSL problem. Experiments verify the efficacy of AOSR. The code is available at github.com/Anjin-Liu/Openset_Learning_AOSR.

Meta Two-Sample Testing: Learning Kernels for Testing with Limited Data

Modern kernel-based two-sample tests have shown great success in distinguishing complex, high-dimensional distributions with appropriate learned kernels. Previous work has demonstrated that this kernel learning procedure succeeds, assuming a considerable number of observed samples from each distribution. In realistic scenarios with very limited numbers of data samples, however, it can be challenging to identify a kernel powerful enough to distinguish complex distributions. We address this issue by introducing the problem of meta two-sample testing (M2ST), which aims to exploit (abundant) auxiliary data on related tasks to find an algorithm that can quickly identify a powerful test on new target tasks. We propose two specific algorithms for this task: a generic scheme which improves over baselines and amore tailored approach which performs even better. We provide both theoretical justification and empirical evidence that our proposed meta-testing schemes out-perform learning kernel-based tests directly from scarce observations, and identify when such schemes will be successful.

Automatic Learning to Detect Concept Drift

Many methods have been proposed to detect concept drift, i.e., the change in the distribution of streaming data, due to concept drift causes a decrease in the prediction accuracy of algorithms. However, the most of current detection methods are based on the assessment of the degree of change in the data distribution, cannot identify the type of concept drift. In this paper, we propose Active Drift Detection with Meta learning (Meta-ADD), a novel framework that learns to classify concept drift by tracking the changed pattern of error rates. Specifically, in the training phase, we extract meta-features based on the error rates of various concept drift, after which a meta-detector is developed via a prototypical neural network by representing various concept drift classes as corresponding prototypes. In the detection phase, the learned meta-detector is fine-tuned to adapt to the corresponding data stream via stream-based active learning. Hence, Meta-ADD uses machine learning to learn to detect concept drifts and identify their types automatically, which can directly support drift understand. The experiment results verify the effectiveness of Meta-ADD.

Decentralized Statistical Inference with Unrolled Graph Neural Networks

In this paper, we investigate the decentralized statistical inference problem, where a network of agents cooperatively recover a (structured) vector from private noisy samples without centralized coordination. Existing optimization-based algorithms suffer from issues of model mismatch and poor convergence speed, and thus their performance would be degraded, provided that the number of communication rounds is limited. This motivates us to propose a learning-based framework, which unrolls well-noted decentralized optimization algorithms (e.g., Prox-DGD and PG-EXTRA) into graph neural networks (GNNs). By minimizing the recovery error via end-to-end training, this learning-based framework resolves the model mismatch issue. Our convergence analysis (with PG-EXTRA as the base algorithm) reveals that the learned model parameters may accelerate the convergence and reduce the recovery error to a large extent. The simulation results demonstrate that the proposed GNN-based learning methods prominently outperform several state-of-the-art optimization-based algorithms in convergence speed and recovery error.

PAC-Bayes Bounds for Meta-learning with Data-Dependent Prior

By leveraging experience from previous tasks, meta-learning algorithms can achieve effective fast adaptation ability when encountering new tasks. However it is unclear how the generalization property applies to new tasks. Probably approximately correct (PAC) Bayes bound theory provides a theoretical framework to analyze the generalization performance for meta-learning. We derive three novel generalisation error bounds for meta-learning based on PAC-Bayes relative entropy bound. Furthermore, using the empirical risk minimization (ERM) method, a PAC-Bayes bound for meta-learning with data-dependent prior is developed. Experiments illustrate that the proposed three PAC-Bayes bounds for meta-learning guarantee a competitive generalization performance guarantee, and the extended PAC-Bayes bound with data-dependent prior can achieve rapid convergence ability.