SAUC: Sparsity-Aware Uncertainty Calibration for Spatiotemporal Prediction with Graph Neural Networks

Quantifying uncertainty is crucial for robust and reliable predictions. However, existing spatiotemporal deep learning mostly focuses on deterministic prediction, overlooking the inherent uncertainty in such prediction. Particularly, highly-granular spatiotemporal datasets are often sparse, posing extra challenges in prediction and uncertainty quantification. To address these issues, this paper introduces a novel post-hoc Sparsity-awar Uncertainty Calibration (SAUC) framework, which calibrates uncertainty in both zero and non-zero values. To develop SAUC, we firstly modify the state-of-the-art deterministic spatiotemporal Graph Neural Networks (ST-GNNs) to probabilistic ones in the pre-calibration phase. Then we calibrate the probabilistic ST-GNNs for zero and non-zero values using quantile approaches.Through extensive experiments, we demonstrate that SAUC can effectively fit the variance of sparse data and generalize across two real-world spatiotemporal datasets at various granularities. Specifically, our empirical experiments show a 20\% reduction in calibration errors in zero entries on the sparse traffic accident and urban crime prediction. Overall, this work demonstrates the theoretical and empirical values of the SAUC framework, thus bridging a significant gap between uncertainty quantification and spatiotemporal prediction.

FusionTransNet for Smart Urban Mobility: Spatiotemporal Traffic Forecasting Through Multimodal Network Integration

This study develops FusionTransNet, a framework designed for Origin-Destination (OD) flow predictions within smart and multimodal urban transportation systems. Urban transportation complexity arises from the spatiotemporal interactions among various traffic modes. Motivated by analyzing multimodal data from Shenzhen, a framework that can dissect complicated spatiotemporal interactions between these modes, from the microscopic local level to the macroscopic city-wide perspective, is essential. The framework contains three core components: the Intra-modal Learning Module, the Inter-modal Learning Module, and the Prediction Decoder. The Intra-modal Learning Module is designed to analyze spatial dependencies within individual transportation modes, facilitating a granular understanding of single-mode spatiotemporal dynamics. The Inter-modal Learning Module extends this analysis, integrating data across different modes to uncover cross-modal interdependencies, by breaking down the interactions at both local and global scales. Finally, the Prediction Decoder synthesizes insights from the preceding modules to generate accurate OD flow predictions, translating complex multimodal interactions into forecasts. Empirical evaluations conducted in metropolitan contexts, including Shenzhen and New York, demonstrate FusionTransNet's superior predictive accuracy compared to existing state-of-the-art methods. The implication of this study extends beyond urban transportation, as the method for transferring information across different spatiotemporal graphs at both local and global scales can be instrumental in other spatial systems, such as supply chain logistics and epidemics spreading.

Information Cascade Prediction under Public Emergencies: A Survey

With the advent of the era of big data, massive information, expert experience, and high-accuracy models bring great opportunities to the information cascade prediction of public emergencies. However, the involvement of specialist knowledge from various disciplines has resulted in a primarily application-specific focus (e.g., earthquakes, floods, infectious diseases) for information cascade prediction of public emergencies. The lack of a unified prediction framework poses a challenge for classifying intersectional prediction methods across different application fields. This survey paper offers a systematic classification and summary of information cascade modeling, prediction, and application. We aim to help researchers identify cutting-edge research and comprehend models and methods of information cascade prediction under public emergencies. By summarizing open issues and outlining future directions in this field, this paper has the potential to be a valuable resource for researchers conducting further studies on predicting information cascades.

Where have you been? A Study of Privacy Risk for Point-of-Interest Recommendation

As location-based services (LBS) have grown in popularity, the collection of human mobility data has become increasingly extensive to build machine learning (ML) models offering enhanced convenience to LBS users. However, the convenience comes with the risk of privacy leakage since this type of data might contain sensitive information related to user identities, such as home/work locations. Prior work focuses on protecting mobility data privacy during transmission or prior to release, lacking the privacy risk evaluation of mobility data-based ML models. To better understand and quantify the privacy leakage in mobility data-based ML models, we design a privacy attack suite containing data extraction and membership inference attacks tailored for point-of-interest (POI) recommendation models, one of the most widely used mobility data-based ML models. These attacks in our attack suite assume different adversary knowledge and aim to extract different types of sensitive information from mobility data, providing a holistic privacy risk assessment for POI recommendation models. Our experimental evaluation using two real-world mobility datasets demonstrates that current POI recommendation models are vulnerable to our attacks. We also present unique findings to understand what types of mobility data are more susceptible to privacy attacks. Finally, we evaluate defenses against these attacks and highlight future directions and challenges.

Data-Driven Distributionally Robust Electric Vehicle Balancing for Autonomous Mobility-on-Demand Systems under Demand and Supply Uncertainties

Electric vehicles (EVs) are being rapidly adopted due to their economic and societal benefits. Autonomous mobility-on-demand (AMoD) systems also embrace this trend. However, the long charging time and high recharging frequency of EVs pose challenges to efficiently managing EV AMoD systems. The complicated dynamic charging and mobility process of EV AMoD systems makes the demand and supply uncertainties significant when designing vehicle balancing algorithms. In this work, we design a data-driven distributionally robust optimization (DRO) approach to balance EVs for both the mobility service and the charging process. The optimization goal is to minimize the worst-case expected cost under both passenger mobility demand uncertainties and EV supply uncertainties. We then propose a novel distributional uncertainty sets construction algorithm that guarantees the produced parameters are contained in desired confidence regions with a given probability. To solve the proposed DRO AMoD EV balancing problem, we derive an equivalent computationally tractable convex optimization problem. Based on real-world EV data of a taxi system, we show that with our solution the average total balancing cost is reduced by 14.49%, and the average mobility fairness and charging fairness are improved by 15.78% and 34.51%, respectively, compared to solutions that do not consider uncertainties.

Data-Driven Distributionally Robust Electric Vehicle Balancing for Mobility-on-Demand Systems under Demand and Supply Uncertainties

As electric vehicle (EV) technologies become mature, EV has been rapidly adopted in modern transportation systems, and is expected to provide future autonomous mobility-on-demand (AMoD) service with economic and societal benefits. However, EVs require frequent recharges due to their limited and unpredictable cruising ranges, and they have to be managed efficiently given the dynamic charging process. It is urgent and challenging to investigate a computationally efficient algorithm that provide EV AMoD system performance guarantees under model uncertainties, instead of using heuristic demand or charging models. To accomplish this goal, this work designs a data-driven distributionally robust optimization approach for vehicle supply-demand ratio and charging station utilization balancing, while minimizing the worst-case expected cost considering both passenger mobility demand uncertainties and EV supply uncertainties. We then derive an equivalent computationally tractable form for solving the distributionally robust problem in a computationally efficient way under ellipsoid uncertainty sets constructed from data. Based on E-taxi system data of Shenzhen city, we show that the average total balancing cost is reduced by 14.49%, the average unfairness of supply-demand ratio and utilization is reduced by 15.78% and 34.51% respectively with the distributionally robust vehicle balancing method, compared with solutions which do not consider model uncertainties.

Learning to Help Emergency Vehicles Arrive Faster: A Cooperative Vehicle-Road Scheduling Approach

The ever-increasing heavy traffic congestion potentially impedes the accessibility of emergency vehicles (EVs), resulting in detrimental impacts on critical services and even safety of people's lives. Hence, it is significant to propose an efficient scheduling approach to help EVs arrive faster. Existing vehicle-centric scheduling approaches aim to recommend the optimal paths for EVs based on the current traffic status while the road-centric scheduling approaches aim to improve the traffic condition and assign a higher priority for EVs to pass an intersection. With the intuition that real-time vehicle-road information interaction and strategy coordination can bring more benefits, we propose LEVID, a LEarning-based cooperative VehIcle-roaD scheduling approach including a real-time route planning module and a collaborative traffic signal control module, which interact with each other and make decisions iteratively. The real-time route planning module adapts the artificial potential field method to address the real-time changes of traffic signals and avoid falling into a local optimum. The collaborative traffic signal control module leverages a graph attention reinforcement learning framework to extract the latent features of different intersections and abstract their interplay to learn cooperative policies. Extensive experiments based on multiple real-world datasets show that our approach outperforms the state-of-the-art baselines.

ABSent: Cross-Lingual Sentence Representation Mapping with Bidirectional GANs

A number of cross-lingual transfer learning approaches based on neural networks have been proposed for the case when large amounts of parallel text are at our disposal. However, in many real-world settings, the size of parallel annotated training data is restricted. Additionally, prior cross-lingual mapping research has mainly focused on the word level. This raises the question of whether such techniques can also be applied to effortlessly obtain cross-lingually aligned sentence representations. To this end, we propose an Adversarial Bi-directional Sentence Embedding Mapping (ABSent) framework, which learns mappings of cross-lingual sentence representations from limited quantities of parallel data.