DataProphet: Demystifying Supervision Data Generalization in Multimodal LLMs

Conventional wisdom for selecting supervision data for multimodal large language models (MLLMs) is to prioritize datasets that appear similar to the target benchmark, such as text-intensive or vision-centric tasks. However, it remains unclear whether such intuitive similarity reliably predicts downstream performance gains. In this work, we take a first step toward answering a practical question: can we estimate the influence of a training dataset on a target benchmark before any training is performed? To investigate this question, we conduct an in-depth analysis of transfer across 14 vision-language datasets spanning 7 diverse tasks. Our results show that intuitive task similarity is an unreliable predictor of transferability, and that generalization depends more on the specific dataset than on its broad task category. Motivated by this finding, we propose DATAPROPHET, a simple and effective training-free metric that combines multimodal perplexity, similarity, and data diversity. Experiments show that DATAPROPHET produces supervision-data rankings that strongly correlate with rankings based on actual post-training performance gains, achieving a Kendall's tau of 86.0%. Moreover, DATAPROPHET enables better supervision-data selection, yielding up to 6.9% improvement over uniform selection, 1.4% over a state-of-the-art training-based baseline, and 0.2% above oracle selection based on experimental performance. Our code and data will be released.

LLM NL2SQL Robustness: Surface Noise vs. Linguistic Variation in Traditional and Agentic Settings

Robustness evaluation for Natural Language to SQL (NL2SQL) systems is essential because real-world database environments are dynamic, noisy, and continuously evolving, whereas conventional benchmark evaluations typically assume static schemas and well-formed user inputs. In this work, we introduce a robustness evaluation benchmark containing approximately ten types of perturbations and conduct evaluations under both traditional and agentic settings. We assess multiple state-of-the-art large language models (LLMs), including Grok-4.1, Gemini-3-Pro, Claude-Opus-4.6, and GPT-5.2. Our results show that these models generally maintain strong performance under several perturbations; however, notable performance degradation is observed for surface-level noise (e.g., character-level corruption) and linguistic variation that preserves semantics while altering lexical or syntactic forms. Furthermore, we observe that surface-level noise causes larger performance drops in traditional pipelines, whereas linguistic variation presents greater challenges in agentic settings. These findings highlight the remaining challenges in achieving robust NL2SQL systems, particularly in handling linguistic variability.

AI+HW 2035: Shaping the Next Decade

Artificial intelligence (AI) and hardware (HW) are advancing at unprecedented rates, yet their trajectories have become inseparably intertwined. The global research community lacks a cohesive, long-term vision to strategically coordinate the development of AI and HW. This fragmentation constrains progress toward holistic, sustainable, and adaptive AI systems capable of learning, reasoning, and operating efficiently across cloud, edge, and physical environments. The future of AI depends not only on scaling intelligence, but on scaling efficiency, achieving exponential gains in intelligence per joule, rather than unbounded compute consumption. Addressing this grand challenge requires rethinking the entire computing stack. This vision paper lays out a 10-year roadmap for AI+HW co-design and co-development, spanning algorithms, architectures, systems, and sustainability. We articulate key insights that redefine scaling around energy efficiency, system-level integration, and cross-layer optimization. We identify key challenges and opportunities, candidly assess potential obstacles and pitfalls, and propose integrated solutions grounded in algorithmic innovation, hardware advances, and software abstraction. Looking ahead, we define what success means in 10 years: achieving a 1000x improvement in efficiency for AI training and inference; enabling energy-aware, self-optimizing systems that seamlessly span cloud, edge, and physical AI; democratizing access to advanced AI infrastructure; and embedding human-centric principles into the design of intelligent systems. Finally, we outline concrete action items for academia, industry, government, and the broader community, calling for coordinated national initiatives, shared infrastructure, workforce development, cross-agency collaboration, and sustained public-private partnerships to ensure that AI+HW co-design becomes a unifying long-term mission.

SAGE: Structure Aware Graph Expansion for Retrieval of Heterogeneous Data

Retrieval-augmented question answering over heterogeneous corpora requires connected evidence across text, tables, and graph nodes. While entity-level knowledge graphs support structured access, they are costly to construct and maintain, and inefficient to traverse at query time. In contrast, standard retriever-reader pipelines use flat similarity search over independently chunked text, missing multi-hop evidence chains across modalities. We propose SAGE (Structure Aware Graph Expansion) framework that (i) constructs a chunk-level graph offline using metadata-driven similarities with percentile-based pruning, and (ii) performs online retrieval by running an initial baseline retriever to obtain k seed chunks, expanding first-hop neighbors, and then filtering the neighbors using dense+sparse retrieval, selecting k' additional chunks. We instantiate the initial retriever using hybrid dense+sparse retrieval for implicit cross-modal corpora and SPARK (Structure Aware Planning Agent for Retrieval over Knowledge Graphs) an agentic retriever for explicit schema graphs. On OTT-QA and STaRK, SAGE improves retrieval recall by 5.7 and 8.5 points over baselines.

On Improving Neurosymbolic Learning by Exploiting the Representation Space

We study the problem of learning neural classifiers in a neurosymbolic setting where the hidden gold labels of input instances must satisfy a logical formula. Learning in this setting proceeds by first computing (a subset of) the possible combinations of labels that satisfy the formula and then computing a loss using those combinations and the classifiers' scores. One challenge is that the space of label combinations can grow exponentially, making learning difficult. We propose a technique that prunes this space by exploiting the intuition that instances with similar latent representations are likely to share the same label. While this intuition has been widely used in weakly supervised learning, its application in our setting is challenging due to label dependencies imposed by logical constraints. We formulate the pruning process as an integer linear program that discards inconsistent label combinations while respecting logical structure. Our approach, CLIPPER, is orthogonal to existing training algorithms and can be seamlessly integrated with them. Across 16 benchmarks over complex neurosymbolic tasks, we demonstrate that CLIPPER boosts the performance of state-of-the-art neurosymbolic engines like Scallop, Dolphin, and ISED by up to 48%, 53%, and 8%, leading to state-of-the-art accuracies.

Decomposed Prompting Does Not Fix Knowledge Gaps, But Helps Models Say "I Don't Know"

Large language models often struggle to recognize their knowledge limits in closed-book question answering, leading to confident hallucinations. While decomposed prompting is typically used to improve accuracy, we investigate its impact on reliability. We evaluate three task-equivalent prompting regimes: Direct, Assistive, and Incremental, across different model scales and multi-hop QA benchmarks. We find that although accuracy gains from decomposition diminish in frontier models, disagreements between prompting regimes remain highly indicative of potential errors. Because factual knowledge is stable while hallucinations are stochastic, cross-regime agreement provides a precise signal of internal uncertainty. We leverage this signal to implement a training-free abstention policy that requires no retrieval or fine-tuning. Our results show that disagreement-based abstention outperforms standard uncertainty baselines as an error detector, improving both F1 and AUROC across settings. This demonstrates that decomposition-based prompting can serve as a practical diagnostic probe for model reliability in closed-book QA.

CORE-T: COherent REtrieval of Tables for Text-to-SQL

Realistic text-to-SQL workflows often require joining multiple tables. As a result, accurately retrieving the relevant set of tables becomes a key bottleneck for end-to-end performance. We study an open-book setting where queries must be answered over large, heterogeneous table collections pooled from many sources, without clean scoping signals such as database identifiers. Here, dense retrieval (DR) achieves high recall but returns many distractors, while join-aware alternatives often rely on extra assumptions and/or incur high inference overhead. We propose CORE-T, a scalable, training-free framework that enriches tables with LLM-generated purpose metadata and pre-computes a lightweight table-compatibility cache. At inference time, DR returns top-K candidates; a single LLM call selects a coherent, joinable subset, and a simple additive adjustment step restores strongly compatible tables. Across Bird, Spider, and MMQA, CORE-T improves table-selection F1 by up to 22.7 points while retrieving up to 42% fewer tables, improving multi-table execution accuracy by up to 5.0 points on Bird and 6.9 points on MMQA, and using 4-5x fewer tokens than LLM-intensive baselines.

Budget-Aware Anytime Reasoning with LLM-Synthesized Preference Data

We study the reasoning behavior of large language models (LLMs) under limited computation budgets. In such settings, producing useful partial solutions quickly is often more practical than exhaustive reasoning, which incurs high inference costs. Many real-world tasks, such as trip planning, require models to deliver the best possible output within a fixed reasoning budget. We introduce an anytime reasoning framework and the Anytime Index, a metric that quantifies how effectively solution quality improves as reasoning tokens increase. To further enhance efficiency, we propose an inference-time self-improvement method using LLM-synthesized preference data, where models learn from their own reasoning comparisons to produce better intermediate solutions. Experiments on NaturalPlan (Trip), AIME, and GPQA datasets show consistent gains across Grok-3, GPT-oss, GPT-4.1/4o, and LLaMA models, improving both reasoning quality and efficiency under budget constraints.

CONCUR: A Framework for Continual Constrained and Unconstrained Routing

AI tasks differ in complexity and are best addressed with different computation strategies (e.g., combinations of models and decoding methods). Hence, an effective routing system that maps tasks to the appropriate strategies is crucial. Most prior methods build the routing framework by training a single model across all strategies, which demands full retraining whenever new strategies appear and leads to high overhead. Attempts at such continual routing, however, often face difficulties with generalization. Prior models also typically use a single input representation, limiting their ability to capture the full complexity of the routing problem and leading to sub-optimal routing decisions. To address these gaps, we propose CONCUR, a continual routing framework that supports both constrained and unconstrained routing (i.e., routing with or without a budget). Our modular design trains a separate predictor model for each strategy, enabling seamless incorporation of new strategies with low additional training cost. Our predictors also leverage multiple representations of both tasks and computation strategies to better capture overall problem complexity. Experiments on both in-distribution and out-of-distribution, knowledge- and reasoning-intensive tasks show that our method outperforms the best single strategy and strong existing routing techniques with higher end-to-end accuracy and lower inference cost in both continual and non-continual settings, while also reducing training cost in the continual setting.

Routesplain: Towards Faithful and Intervenable Routing for Software-related Tasks

LLMs now tackle a wide range of software-related tasks, yet we show that their performance varies markedly both across and within these tasks. Routing user queries to the appropriate LLMs can therefore help improve response quality while reducing cost. Prior work, however, has focused mainly on general-purpose LLM routing via black-box models. We introduce Routesplain, the first LLM router for software-related tasks, including multilingual code generation and repair, input/output prediction, and computer science QA. Unlike existing routing approaches, Routesplain first extracts human-interpretable concepts from each query (e.g., task, domain, reasoning complexity) and only routes based on these concepts, thereby providing intelligible, faithful rationales. We evaluate Routesplain on 16 state-of-the-art LLMs across eight software-related tasks; Routesplain outperforms individual models both in terms of accuracy and cost, and equals or surpasses all black-box baselines, with concept-level intervention highlighting avenues for further router improvements.