On the Relationship Between Explanation and Prediction: A Causal View

Explainability has become a central requirement for the development, deployment, and adoption of machine learning (ML) models and we are yet to understand what explanation methods can and cannot do. Several factors such as data, model prediction, hyperparameters used in training the model, and random initialization can all influence downstream explanations. While previous work empirically hinted that explanations (E) may have little relationship with the prediction (Y), there is a lack of conclusive study to quantify this relationship. Our work borrows tools from causal inference to systematically assay this relationship. More specifically, we measure the relationship between E and Y by measuring the treatment effect when intervening on their causal ancestors (hyperparameters) (inputs to generate saliency-based Es or Ys). We discover that Y's relative direct influence on E follows an odd pattern; the influence is higher in the lowest-performing models than in mid-performing models, and it then decreases in the top-performing models. We believe our work is a promising first step towards providing better guidance for practitioners who can make more informed decisions in utilizing these explanations by knowing what factors are at play and how they relate to their end task.

Post hoc Explanations may be Ineffective for Detecting Unknown Spurious Correlation

We investigate whether three types of post hoc model explanations--feature attribution, concept activation, and training point ranking--are effective for detecting a model's reliance on spurious signals in the training data. Specifically, we consider the scenario where the spurious signal to be detected is unknown, at test-time, to the user of the explanation method. We design an empirical methodology that uses semi-synthetic datasets along with pre-specified spurious artifacts to obtain models that verifiably rely on these spurious training signals. We then provide a suite of metrics that assess an explanation method's reliability for spurious signal detection under various conditions. We find that the post hoc explanation methods tested are ineffective when the spurious artifact is unknown at test-time especially for non-visible artifacts like a background blur. Further, we find that feature attribution methods are susceptible to erroneously indicating dependence on spurious signals even when the model being explained does not rely on spurious artifacts. This finding casts doubt on the utility of these approaches, in the hands of a practitioner, for detecting a model's reliance on spurious signals.

Beyond Rewards: a Hierarchical Perspective on Offline Multiagent Behavioral Analysis

Each year, expert-level performance is attained in increasingly-complex multiagent domains, notable examples including Go, Poker, and StarCraft II. This rapid progression is accompanied by a commensurate need to better understand how such agents attain this performance, to enable their safe deployment, identify limitations, and reveal potential means of improving them. In this paper we take a step back from performance-focused multiagent learning, and instead turn our attention towards agent behavior analysis. We introduce a model-agnostic method for discovery of behavior clusters in multiagent domains, using variational inference to learn a hierarchy of behaviors at the joint and local agent levels. Our framework makes no assumption about agents' underlying learning algorithms, does not require access to their latent states or models, and can be trained using entirely offline observational data. We illustrate the effectiveness of our method for enabling the coupled understanding of behaviors at the joint and local agent level, detection of behavior changepoints throughout training, discovery of core behavioral concepts (e.g., those that facilitate higher returns), and demonstrate the approach's scalability to a high-dimensional multiagent MuJoCo control domain.

Human-Centered Concept Explanations for Neural Networks

Understanding complex machine learning models such as deep neural networks with explanations is crucial in various applications. Many explanations stem from the model perspective, and may not necessarily effectively communicate why the model is making its predictions at the right level of abstraction. For example, providing importance weights to individual pixels in an image can only express which parts of that particular image are important to the model, but humans may prefer an explanation which explains the prediction by concept-based thinking. In this work, we review the emerging area of concept based explanations. We start by introducing concept explanations including the class of Concept Activation Vectors (CAV) which characterize concepts using vectors in appropriate spaces of neural activations, and discuss different properties of useful concepts, and approaches to measure the usefulness of concept vectors. We then discuss approaches to automatically extract concepts, and approaches to address some of their caveats. Finally, we discuss some case studies that showcase the utility of such concept-based explanations in synthetic settings and real world applications.

Subgoal-Based Explanations for Unreliable Intelligent Decision Support Systems

Intelligent decision support (IDS) systems leverage artificial intelligence techniques to generate recommendations that guide human users through the decision making phases of a task. However, a key challenge is that IDS systems are not perfect, and in complex real-world scenarios may produce incorrect output or fail to work altogether. The field of explainable AI planning (XAIP) has sought to develop techniques that make the decision making of sequential decision making AI systems more explainable to end-users. Critically, prior work in applying XAIP techniques to IDS systems has assumed that the plan being proposed by the planner is always optimal, and therefore the action or plan being recommended as decision support to the user is always correct. In this work, we examine novice user interactions with a non-robust IDS system -- one that occasionally recommends the wrong action, and one that may become unavailable after users have become accustomed to its guidance. We introduce a novel explanation type, subgoal-based explanations, for planning-based IDS systems, that supplements traditional IDS output with information about the subgoal toward which the recommended action would contribute. We demonstrate that subgoal-based explanations lead to improved user task performance, improve user ability to distinguish optimal and suboptimal IDS recommendations, are preferred by users, and enable more robust user performance in the case of IDS failure

Acquisition of Chess Knowledge in AlphaZero

What is learned by sophisticated neural network agents such as AlphaZero? This question is of both scientific and practical interest. If the representations of strong neural networks bear no resemblance to human concepts, our ability to understand faithful explanations of their decisions will be restricted, ultimately limiting what we can achieve with neural network interpretability. In this work we provide evidence that human knowledge is acquired by the AlphaZero neural network as it trains on the game of chess. By probing for a broad range of human chess concepts we show when and where these concepts are represented in the AlphaZero network. We also provide a behavioural analysis focusing on opening play, including qualitative analysis from chess Grandmaster Vladimir Kramnik. Finally, we carry out a preliminary investigation looking at the low-level details of AlphaZero's representations, and make the resulting behavioural and representational analyses available online.

Best of both worlds: local and global explanations with human-understandable concepts

Interpretability techniques aim to provide the rationale behind a model's decision, typically by explaining either an individual prediction (local explanation, e.g. `why is this patient diagnosed with this condition') or a class of predictions (global explanation, e.g. `why are patients diagnosed with this condition in general'). While there are many methods focused on either one, few frameworks can provide both local and global explanations in a consistent manner. In this work, we combine two powerful existing techniques, one local (Integrated Gradients, IG) and one global (Testing with Concept Activation Vectors), to provide local, and global concept-based explanations. We first validate our idea using two synthetic datasets with a known ground truth, and further demonstrate with a benchmark natural image dataset. We test our method with various concepts, target classes, model architectures and IG baselines. We show that our method improves global explanations over TCAV when compared to ground truth, and provides useful insights. We hope our work provides a step towards building bridges between many existing local and global methods to get the best of both worlds.

DISSECT: Disentangled Simultaneous Explanations via Concept Traversals

Explaining deep learning model inferences is a promising venue for scientific understanding, improving safety, uncovering hidden biases, evaluating fairness, and beyond, as argued by many scholars. One of the principal benefits of counterfactual explanations is allowing users to explore "what-if" scenarios through what does not and cannot exist in the data, a quality that many other forms of explanation such as heatmaps and influence functions are inherently incapable of doing. However, most previous work on generative explainability cannot disentangle important concepts effectively, produces unrealistic examples, or fails to retain relevant information. We propose a novel approach, DISSECT, that jointly trains a generator, a discriminator, and a concept disentangler to overcome such challenges using little supervision. DISSECT generates Concept Traversals (CTs), defined as a sequence of generated examples with increasing degrees of concepts that influence a classifier's decision. By training a generative model from a classifier's signal, DISSECT offers a way to discover a classifier's inherent "notion" of distinct concepts automatically rather than rely on user-predefined concepts. We show that DISSECT produces CTs that (1) disentangle several concepts, (2) are influential to a classifier's decision and are coupled to its reasoning due to joint training (3), are realistic, (4) preserve relevant information, and (5) are stable across similar inputs. We validate DISSECT on several challenging synthetic and realistic datasets where previous methods fall short of satisfying desirable criteria for interpretability and show that it performs consistently well and better than existing methods. Finally, we present experiments showing applications of DISSECT for detecting potential biases of a classifier and identifying spurious artifacts that impact predictions.