Michael Pokorny
Abstract:Building performant Vision-Language Models (VLMs) requires carefully curating large-scale training datasets, yet the community lacks systematic benchmarks for evaluating such curation strategies. We introduce DataComp for VLMs (DCVLM), a benchmark for controlled data-centric experiments to improve VLM training. As part of DCVLM, we collect 160 datasets spanning four data types -- image-caption pairs, multimodal interleaved documents, text-only, and instruction-tuning data -- into a corpus of 6T multimodal tokens. DCVLM allows participants to test curation strategies (filtering, mixing, formatting, sampling) across 1B-8B models and 6.25B-200B token budgets. Models are then evaluated on a carefully selected suite of up to 52 downstream benchmarks across 9 domains. We conduct extensive experiments on DCVLM and find that data mixing, not filtering, is key to a high-quality training dataset: instruction-heavy mixtures scale better than caption-heavy ones, with gains widening at larger scales. The resulting dataset, DCVLM-Baseline, enables training an 8B VLM to 63.6% accuracy on our 33-task core suite with 200B training tokens. Compared to FineVision, the state-of-the-art open VLM training dataset, this represents an improvement of +5.4pp. DCVLM and all accompanying artifacts will be made publicly available at https://www.datacomp.ai/dcvlm/.
Abstract:LLM agents increasingly act over long horizons, where a single trajectory can contain hundreds or thousands of actions. In these settings, outcome-only rewards provide too sparse guidance, failing to inform the model about the goodness of intermediate actions. Dense supervision methods aim to solve this problem by scoring intermediate steps, from intrinsic confidence to self-distillation and embedding similarities. However, it is common practice to evaluate them by measuring the downstream performance of a training pipeline that integrates them. This is expensive, conflates supervision quality with training engineering confounders, and renders different methodological families requiring distinct training setups incomparable. As a result, dense supervision methods are rarely benchmarked on common ground. We introduce QVal, a training-free testbed for directly evaluating dense supervision signals. Given a state-action pair, QVal measures how well a method's score is Q-aligned: whether it orders actions according to the Q-values of a strong reference-policy. This lets us compare signals before any training run and separate signal quality from other engineering choices. We instantiate QVal as QVal-v1.0, benchmarking 21 dense supervision methods across four diverse environments and seven methodological families, with over 1.2K evaluation experiments across six open-weight model backbones. We find that simple prompting baselines consistently outperform recent dense supervision methods from the literature, and that performance clusters strongly by family. These findings hold across model sizes, environments, and observation modalities. QVal is designed to be easily extensible to new environments and methods, enabling researchers to iterate on dense supervision methods before any training run.
Abstract:AI agents are being increasingly deployed in dynamic, open-ended environments that require adapting to new information as it arrives. To efficiently measure this capability for realistic use-cases, we propose building grounded simulations that replay real-world events in the order they occurred. We build FutureSim, where agents forecast world events beyond their knowledge cutoff while interacting with a chronological replay of the world: real news articles arriving and questions resolving over the simulated period. We evaluate frontier agents in their native harness, testing their ability to predict world events over a three-month period from January to March 2026. FutureSim reveals a clear separation in their capabilities, with the best agent's accuracy being 25%, and many having worse Brier skill score than making no prediction at all. Through careful ablations, we show how FutureSim offers a realistic setting to study emerging research directions like long-horizon test-time adaptation, search, memory, and reasoning about uncertainty. Overall, we hope our benchmark design paves the way to measure AI progress on open-ended adaptation spanning long time-horizons in the real world.
Abstract:As language models are increasingly deployed for complex autonomous tasks, their ability to reason accurately over longer horizons becomes critical. An essential component of this ability is planning and managing a long, complex chain-of-thought (CoT). We introduce LongCoT, a scalable benchmark of 2,500 expert-designed problems spanning chemistry, mathematics, computer science, chess, and logic to isolate and directly measure the long-horizon CoT reasoning capabilities of frontier models. Problems consist of a short input with a verifiable answer; solving them requires navigating a graph of interdependent steps that span tens to hundreds of thousands of reasoning tokens. Each local step is individually tractable for frontier models, so failures reflect long-horizon reasoning limitations. At release, the best models achieve <10% accuracy (GPT 5.2: 9.8%; Gemini 3 Pro: 6.1%) on LongCoT, revealing a substantial gap in current capabilities. Overall, LongCoT provides a rigorous measure of long-horizon reasoning, tracking the ability of frontier models to reason reliably over extended periods.
Abstract:Multilingual benchmarks guide the development of frontier models. Yet multilingual evaluations reported by frontier models are structured similar to popular reasoning and knowledge benchmarks, but across many languages. We show such benchmarks, and consequently multilingual evaluations, measure mathematical reasoning and factual recall, not multilingual proficiency. For example, thinking variants dramatically outperform instruct variants on these benchmarks, yet often perform worse on real-world multilingual tasks, such as LMArena. We propose a simple alternative: evaluate multilingual capability via round-trip translation. Given text in a source language, translate it to a target language and back; semantic gaps between the original and result expose failures in multilingual generation capabilities. Round-trip translation correlates almost perfectly (\r{ho} = 0.94) with user ratings on LMArena with our benchmark, requires no human reference translations, and does not require a more capable multilingual judge than tested models. Lastly, we introduce Lost in Translation (LiT), a challenging round-trip translation benchmark spanning widely spoken languages worldwide, for realistic evaluation of multilingual frontier models.
Abstract:Modern text-to-image (T2I) models generate high-fidelity visuals but remain indifferent to individual user preferences. While existing reward models optimize for "average" human appeal, they fail to capture the inherent subjectivity of aesthetic judgment. In this work, we introduce a novel dataset and predictive framework, called PAMELA, designed to model personalized image evaluations. Our dataset comprises 70,000 ratings across 5,000 diverse images generated by state-of-the-art models (Flux 2 and Nano Banana). Each image is evaluated by 15 unique users, providing a rich distribution of subjective preferences across domains such as art, design, fashion, and cinematic photography. Leveraging this data, we propose a personalized reward model trained jointly on our high-quality annotations and existing aesthetic assessment subsets. We demonstrate that our model predicts individual liking with higher accuracy than the majority of current state-of-the-art methods predict population-level preferences. Using our personalized predictor, we demonstrate how simple prompt optimization methods can be used to steer generations towards individual user preferences. Our results highlight the importance of data quality and personalization to handle the subjectivity of user preferences. We release our dataset and model to facilitate standardized research in personalized T2I alignment and subjective visual quality assessment.
Abstract:AI agents have become surprisingly proficient at software engineering over the past year, largely due to improvements in reasoning capabilities. This raises a deeper question: can these systems extend their capabilities to automate AI research itself? In this paper, we explore post-training, the critical phase that turns base LLMs into useful assistants. We introduce PostTrainBench to benchmark how well LLM agents can perform post-training autonomously under bounded compute constraints (10 hours on one H100 GPU). We ask frontier agents (e.g., Claude Code with Opus 4.6) to optimize the performance of a base LLM on a particular benchmark (e.g., Qwen3-4B on AIME). Importantly, we do not provide any predefined strategies to the agents and instead give them full autonomy to find necessary information on the web, run experiments, and curate data. We find that frontier agents make substantial progress but generally lag behind instruction-tuned LLMs from leading providers: 23.2% for the best agent vs. 51.1% for official instruction-tuned models. However, agents can exceed instruction-tuned models in targeted scenarios: GPT-5.1 Codex Max achieves 89% on BFCL with Gemma-3-4B vs. 67% for the official model. We also observe several failure modes worth flagging. Agents sometimes engage in reward hacking: training on the test set, downloading existing instruction-tuned checkpoints instead of training their own, and using API keys they find to generate synthetic data without authorization. These behaviors are concerning and highlight the importance of careful sandboxing as these systems become more capable. Overall, we hope PostTrainBench will be useful for tracking progress in AI R&D automation and for studying the risks that come with it. Website and code are available at https://posttrainbench.com/.
Abstract:Foundation models have transformed machine learning through large-scale pretraining and increased test-time compute. Despite surpassing human performance in several domains, these models remain fundamentally limited in continuous operation, experience accumulation, and personalization, capabilities that are central to adaptive intelligence. While continual learning research has long targeted these goals, its historical focus on in-weight learning (IWL), i.e., updating a single model's parameters to absorb new knowledge, has rendered catastrophic forgetting a persistent challenge. Our position is that combining the strengths of In-Weight Learning (IWL) and the newly emerged capabilities of In-Context Learning (ICL) through the design of modular memory is the missing piece for continual adaptation at scale. We outline a conceptual framework for modular memory-centric architectures that leverage ICL for rapid adaptation and knowledge accumulation, and IWL for stable updates to model capabilities, charting a practical roadmap toward continually learning agents.
Abstract:How can we train agents to navigate uncertainty over long horizons? In this work, we propose ΔBelief-RL, which leverages a language model's own intrinsic beliefs to reward intermediate progress. Our method utilizes the change in the probability an agent assigns to the target solution for credit assignment. By training on synthetic interaction data, ΔBelief-RL teaches information-seeking capabilities that consistently outperform purely outcome-based rewards for Reinforcement Learning, with improvements generalizing to out-of-distribution applications ranging from customer service to personalization. Notably, the performance continues to improve as we scale test-time interactions beyond the training horizon, with interaction-efficiency increasing even on Pass@k metrics. Overall, our work introduces a scalable training strategy for navigating uncertainty over a long-horizon, by enabling credit assignment to intermediate actions via intrinsic ΔBelief rewards.
Abstract:High-stakes decision making involves reasoning under uncertainty about the future. In this work, we train language models to make predictions on open-ended forecasting questions. To scale up training data, we synthesize novel forecasting questions from global events reported in daily news, using a fully automated, careful curation recipe. We train the Qwen3 thinking models on our dataset, OpenForesight. To prevent leakage of future information during training and evaluation, we use an offline news corpus, both for data generation and retrieval in our forecasting system. Guided by a small validation set, we show the benefits of retrieval, and an improved reward function for reinforcement learning (RL). Once we obtain our final forecasting system, we perform held-out testing between May to August 2025. Our specialized model, OpenForecaster 8B, matches much larger proprietary models, with our training improving the accuracy, calibration, and consistency of predictions. We find calibration improvements from forecasting training generalize across popular benchmarks. We open-source all our models, code, and data to make research on language model forecasting broadly accessible.