SMURF-THP: Score Matching-based UnceRtainty quantiFication for Transformer Hawkes Process

Transformer Hawkes process models have shown to be successful in modeling event sequence data. However, most of the existing training methods rely on maximizing the likelihood of event sequences, which involves calculating some intractable integral. Moreover, the existing methods fail to provide uncertainty quantification for model predictions, e.g., confidence intervals for the predicted event's arrival time. To address these issues, we propose SMURF-THP, a score-based method for learning Transformer Hawkes process and quantifying prediction uncertainty. Specifically, SMURF-THP learns the score function of events' arrival time based on a score-matching objective that avoids the intractable computation. With such a learned score function, we can sample arrival time of events from the predictive distribution. This naturally allows for the quantification of uncertainty by computing confidence intervals over the generated samples. We conduct extensive experiments in both event type prediction and uncertainty quantification of arrival time. In all the experiments, SMURF-THP outperforms existing likelihood-based methods in confidence calibration while exhibiting comparable prediction accuracy.

Score Matching-based Pseudolikelihood Estimation of Neural Marked Spatio-Temporal Point Process with Uncertainty Quantification

Spatio-temporal point processes (STPPs) are potent mathematical tools for modeling and predicting events with both temporal and spatial features. Despite their versatility, most existing methods for learning STPPs either assume a restricted form of the spatio-temporal distribution, or suffer from inaccurate approximations of the intractable integral in the likelihood training objective. These issues typically arise from the normalization term of the probability density function. Moreover, current techniques fail to provide uncertainty quantification for model predictions, such as confidence intervals for the predicted event's arrival time and confidence regions for the event's location, which is crucial given the considerable randomness of the data. To tackle these challenges, we introduce SMASH: a Score MAtching-based pSeudolikeliHood estimator for learning marked STPPs with uncertainty quantification. Specifically, our framework adopts a normalization-free objective by estimating the pseudolikelihood of marked STPPs through score-matching and offers uncertainty quantification for the predicted event time, location and mark by computing confidence regions over the generated samples. The superior performance of our proposed framework is demonstrated through extensive experiments in both event prediction and uncertainty quantification.

Stochastic Inexact Augmented Lagrangian Method for Nonconvex Expectation Constrained Optimization

Many real-world problems not only have complicated nonconvex functional constraints but also use a large number of data points. This motivates the design of efficient stochastic methods on finite-sum or expectation constrained problems. In this paper, we design and analyze stochastic inexact augmented Lagrangian methods (Stoc-iALM) to solve problems involving a nonconvex composite (i.e. smooth+nonsmooth) objective and nonconvex smooth functional constraints. We adopt the standard iALM framework and design a subroutine by using the momentum-based variance-reduced proximal stochastic gradient method (PStorm) and a postprocessing step. Under certain regularity conditions (assumed also in existing works), to reach an $\varepsilon$-KKT point in expectation, we establish an oracle complexity result of $O(\varepsilon^{-5})$, which is better than the best-known $O(\varepsilon^{-6})$ result. Numerical experiments on the fairness constrained problem and the Neyman-Pearson classification problem with real data demonstrate that our proposed method outperforms an existing method with the previously best-known complexity result.

Transformer Hawkes Process

Modern data acquisition routinely produce massive amounts of event sequence data in various domains, such as social media, healthcare, and financial markets. These data often exhibit complicated short-term and long-term temporal dependencies. However, most of the existing recurrent neural network-based point process models fail to capture such dependencies, and yield unreliable prediction performance. To address this issue, we propose a Transformer Hawkes Process (THP) model, which leverages the self-attention mechanism to capture long-term dependencies and meanwhile enjoys computational efficiency. Numerical experiments on various datasets show that THP outperforms existing models in terms of both likelihood and event prediction accuracy by a notable margin. Moreover, THP is quite general and can incorporate additional structural knowledge. We provide a concrete example, where THP achieves improved prediction performance for learning multiple point processes when incorporating their relational information.