CausalQuest: Collecting Natural Causal Questions for AI Agents

Humans have an innate drive to seek out causality. Whether fuelled by curiosity or specific goals, we constantly question why things happen, how they are interconnected, and many other related phenomena. To develop AI agents capable of addressing this natural human quest for causality, we urgently need a comprehensive dataset of natural causal questions. Unfortunately, existing datasets either contain only artificially-crafted questions that do not reflect real AI usage scenarios or have limited coverage of questions from specific sources. To address this gap, we present CausalQuest, a dataset of 13,500 naturally occurring questions sourced from social networks, search engines, and AI assistants. We formalize the definition of causal questions and establish a taxonomy for finer-grained classification. Through a combined effort of human annotators and large language models (LLMs), we carefully label the dataset. We find that 42% of the questions humans ask are indeed causal, with the majority seeking to understand the causes behind given effects. Using this dataset, we train efficient classifiers (up to 2.85B parameters) for the binary task of identifying causal questions, achieving high performance with F1 scores of up to 0.877. We conclude with a rich set of future research directions that can build upon our data and models.

Implicit Personalization in Language Models: A Systematic Study

Implicit Personalization (IP) is a phenomenon of language models inferring a user's background from the implicit cues in the input prompts and tailoring the response based on this inference. While previous work has touched upon various instances of this problem, there lacks a unified framework to study this behavior. This work systematically studies IP through a rigorous mathematical formulation, a multi-perspective moral reasoning framework, and a set of case studies. Our theoretical foundation for IP relies on a structural causal model and introduces a novel method, indirect intervention, to estimate the causal effect of a mediator variable that cannot be directly intervened upon. Beyond the technical approach, we also introduce a set of moral reasoning principles based on three schools of moral philosophy to study when IP may or may not be ethically appropriate. Equipped with both mathematical and ethical insights, we present three diverse case studies illustrating the varied nature of the IP problem and offer recommendations for future research. Our code and data are at https://github.com/jiarui-liu/IP.

Automatic Generation of Model and Data Cards: A Step Towards Responsible AI

In an era of model and data proliferation in machine learning/AI especially marked by the rapid advancement of open-sourced technologies, there arises a critical need for standardized consistent documentation. Our work addresses the information incompleteness in current human-generated model and data cards. We propose an automated generation approach using Large Language Models (LLMs). Our key contributions include the establishment of CardBench, a comprehensive dataset aggregated from over 4.8k model cards and 1.4k data cards, coupled with the development of the CardGen pipeline comprising a two-step retrieval process. Our approach exhibits enhanced completeness, objectivity, and faithfulness in generated model and data cards, a significant step in responsible AI documentation practices ensuring better accountability and traceability.

Analyzing the Role of Semantic Representations in the Era of Large Language Models

Traditionally, natural language processing (NLP) models often use a rich set of features created by linguistic expertise, such as semantic representations. However, in the era of large language models (LLMs), more and more tasks are turned into generic, end-to-end sequence generation problems. In this paper, we investigate the question: what is the role of semantic representations in the era of LLMs? Specifically, we investigate the effect of Abstract Meaning Representation (AMR) across five diverse NLP tasks. We propose an AMR-driven chain-of-thought prompting method, which we call AMRCoT, and find that it generally hurts performance more than it helps. To investigate what AMR may have to offer on these tasks, we conduct a series of analysis experiments. We find that it is difficult to predict which input examples AMR may help or hurt on, but errors tend to arise with multi-word expressions, named entities, and in the final inference step where the LLM must connect its reasoning over the AMR to its prediction. We recommend focusing on these areas for future work in semantic representations for LLMs. Our code: https://github.com/causalNLP/amr_llm.

Cooperate or Collapse: Emergence of Sustainability Behaviors in a Society of LLM Agents

In the rapidly evolving field of artificial intelligence, ensuring safe decision-making of Large Language Models (LLMs) is a significant challenge. This paper introduces Governance of the Commons Simulation (GovSim), a simulation platform designed to study strategic interactions and cooperative decision-making in LLMs. Through this simulation environment, we explore the dynamics of resource sharing among AI agents, highlighting the importance of ethical considerations, strategic planning, and negotiation skills. GovSim is versatile and supports any text-based agent, including LLMs agents. Using the Generative Agent framework, we create a standard agent that facilitates the integration of different LLMs. Our findings reveal that within GovSim, only two out of 15 tested LLMs managed to achieve a sustainable outcome, indicating a significant gap in the ability of models to manage shared resources. Furthermore, we find that by removing the ability of agents to communicate, they overuse the shared resource, highlighting the importance of communication for cooperation. Interestingly, most LLMs lack the ability to make universalized hypotheses, which highlights a significant weakness in their reasoning skills. We open source the full suite of our research results, including the simulation environment, agent prompts, and a comprehensive web interface.

On the Causal Nature of Sentiment Analysis

Sentiment analysis (SA) aims to identify the sentiment expressed in a text, such as a product review. Given a review and the sentiment associated with it, this paper formulates SA as a combination of two tasks: (1) a causal discovery task that distinguishes whether a review "primes" the sentiment (Causal Hypothesis C1), or the sentiment "primes" the review (Causal Hypothesis C2); and (2) the traditional prediction task to model the sentiment using the review as input. Using the peak-end rule in psychology, we classify a sample as C1 if its overall sentiment score approximates an average of all the sentence-level sentiments in the review, and C2 if the overall sentiment score approximates an average of the peak and end sentiments. For the prediction task, we use the discovered causal mechanisms behind the samples to improve the performance of LLMs by proposing causal prompts that give the models an inductive bias of the underlying causal graph, leading to substantial improvements by up to 32.13 F1 points on zero-shot five-class SA. Our code is at https://github.com/cogito233/causal-sa

Competition of Mechanisms: Tracing How Language Models Handle Facts and Counterfactuals

Interpretability research aims to bridge the gap between the empirical success and our scientific understanding of the inner workings of large language models (LLMs). However, most existing research in this area focused on analyzing a single mechanism, such as how models copy or recall factual knowledge. In this work, we propose the formulation of competition of mechanisms, which instead of individual mechanisms focuses on the interplay of multiple mechanisms, and traces how one of them becomes dominant in the final prediction. We uncover how and where the competition of mechanisms happens within LLMs using two interpretability methods, logit inspection and attention modification. Our findings show traces of the mechanisms and their competition across various model components, and reveal attention positions that effectively control the strength of certain mechanisms. Our code and data are at https://github.com/francescortu/Competition_of_Mechanisms.

CLadder: A Benchmark to Assess Causal Reasoning Capabilities of Language Models

The ability to perform causal reasoning is widely considered a core feature of intelligence. In this work, we investigate whether large language models (LLMs) can coherently reason about causality. Much of the existing work in natural language processing (NLP) focuses on evaluating commonsense causal reasoning in LLMs, thus failing to assess whether a model can perform causal inference in accordance with a set of well-defined formal rules. To address this, we propose a new NLP task, causal inference in natural language, inspired by the "causal inference engine" postulated by Judea Pearl et al. We compose a large dataset, CLadder, with 10K samples: based on a collection of causal graphs and queries (associational, interventional, and counterfactual), we obtain symbolic questions and ground-truth answers, through an oracle causal inference engine. These are then translated into natural language. We evaluate multiple LLMs on our dataset, and we introduce and evaluate a bespoke chain-of-thought prompting strategy, CausalCoT. We show that our task is highly challenging for LLMs, and we conduct an in-depth analysis to gain deeper insight into the causal reasoning abilities of LLMs. Our data is open-sourced at https://huggingface.co/datasets/causalNLP/cladder, and our code can be found at https://github.com/causalNLP/cladder.

Navigating the Ocean of Biases: Political Bias Attribution in Language Models via Causal Structures

The rapid advancement of Large Language Models (LLMs) has sparked intense debate regarding their ability to perceive and interpret complex socio-political landscapes. In this study, we undertake an exploration of decision-making processes and inherent biases within LLMs, exemplified by ChatGPT, specifically contextualizing our analysis within political debates. We aim not to critique or validate LLMs' values, but rather to discern how they interpret and adjudicate "good arguments." By applying Activity Dependency Networks (ADNs), we extract the LLMs' implicit criteria for such assessments and illustrate how normative values influence these perceptions. We discuss the consequences of our findings for human-AI alignment and bias mitigation. Our code and data at https://github.com/david-jenny/LLM-Political-Study.

CausalCite: A Causal Formulation of Paper Citations

Evaluating the significance of a paper is pivotal yet challenging for the scientific community. While the citation count is the most commonly used proxy for this purpose, they are widely criticized for failing to accurately reflect a paper's true impact. In this work, we propose a causal inference method, TextMatch, which adapts the traditional matching framework to high-dimensional text embeddings. Specifically, we encode each paper using the text embeddings by large language models (LLMs), extract similar samples by cosine similarity, and synthesize a counterfactual sample by the weighted average of similar papers according to their similarity values. We apply the resulting metric, called CausalCite, as a causal formulation of paper citations. We show its effectiveness on various criteria, such as high correlation with paper impact as reported by scientific experts on a previous dataset of 1K papers, (test-of-time) awards for past papers, and its stability across various sub-fields of AI. We also provide a set of findings that can serve as suggested ways for future researchers to use our metric for a better understanding of a paper's quality. Our code and data are at https://github.com/causalNLP/causal-cite.