Abstract:Opinion modeling aims to capture individual or group political preferences, enabling applications such as digital democracies, where models could help shape fairer and more popular policies. Given their versatility, strong generalization capabilities, and demonstrated success across diverse text-to-text applications, large language models (LLMs) are natural candidates for this task. However, due to their statistical nature and limited causal understanding, they tend to produce biased opinions when prompted naively. In this work, we study whether reasoning can improve opinion alignment. Motivated by the recent advancement in mathematical reasoning enabled by reinforcement learning (RL), we train models to produce profile-consistent answers through structured reasoning. We evaluate our approach on three datasets covering U.S., European, and Swiss politics. Results indicate that reasoning enhances opinion modeling and is competitive with strong baselines, but does not fully remove bias, highlighting the need for additional mechanisms to build faithful political digital twins using LLMs. By releasing both our method and datasets, we establish a solid baseline to support future research on LLM opinion alignment.
Abstract:The rapid advancement of Large Language Models (LLMs) has sparked intense debate regarding their ability to perceive and interpret complex socio-political landscapes. In this study, we undertake an exploration of decision-making processes and inherent biases within LLMs, exemplified by ChatGPT, specifically contextualizing our analysis within political debates. We aim not to critique or validate LLMs' values, but rather to discern how they interpret and adjudicate "good arguments." By applying Activity Dependency Networks (ADNs), we extract the LLMs' implicit criteria for such assessments and illustrate how normative values influence these perceptions. We discuss the consequences of our findings for human-AI alignment and bias mitigation. Our code and data at https://github.com/david-jenny/LLM-Political-Study.