DEUP: Direct Epistemic Uncertainty Prediction

Epistemic uncertainty is the part of out-of-sample prediction error due to the lack of knowledge of the learner. Whereas previous work was focusing on model variance, we propose a principled approach for directly estimating epistemic uncertainty by learning to predict generalization error and subtracting an estimate of aleatoric uncertainty, i.e., intrinsic unpredictability. This estimator of epistemic uncertainty includes the effect of model bias and can be applied in non-stationary learning environments arising in active learning or reinforcement learning. In addition to demonstrating these properties of Direct Epistemic Uncertainty Prediction (DEUP), we illustrate its advantage against existing methods for uncertainty estimation on downstream tasks including sequential model optimization and reinforcement learning. We also evaluate the quality of uncertainty estimates from DEUP for probabilistic classification of images and for estimating uncertainty about synergistic drug combinations.

Structured Sparsity Inducing Adaptive Optimizers for Deep Learning

The parameters of a neural network are naturally organized in groups, some of which might not contribute to its overall performance. To prune out unimportant groups of parameters, we can include some non-differentiable penalty to the objective function, and minimize it using proximal gradient methods. In this paper, we derive the weighted proximal operator, which is a necessary component of these proximal methods, of two structured sparsity inducing penalties. Moreover, they can be approximated efficiently with a numerical solver, and despite this approximation, we prove that existing convergence guarantees are preserved when these operators are integrated as part of a generic adaptive proximal method. Finally, we show that this adaptive method, together with the weighted proximal operators derived here, is indeed capable of finding solutions with structure in their sparsity patterns, on representative examples from computer vision and natural language processing.

Scaling Equilibrium Propagation to Deep ConvNets by Drastically Reducing its Gradient Estimator Bias

Equilibrium Propagation (EP) is a biologically-inspired counterpart of Backpropagation Through Time (BPTT) which, owing to its strong theoretical guarantees and the locality in space of its learning rule, fosters the design of energy-efficient hardware dedicated to learning. In practice, however, EP does not scale to visual tasks harder than MNIST. In this work, we show that a bias in the gradient estimate of EP, inherent in the use of finite nudging, is responsible for this phenomenon and that cancelling it allows training deep ConvNets by EP, including architectures with distinct forward and backward connections. These results highlight EP as a scalable approach to compute error gradients in deep neural networks, thereby motivating its hardware implementation.

Machine Learning for Glacier Monitoring in the Hindu Kush Himalaya

Glacier mapping is key to ecological monitoring in the hkh region. Climate change poses a risk to individuals whose livelihoods depend on the health of glacier ecosystems. In this work, we present a machine learning based approach to support ecological monitoring, with a focus on glaciers. Our approach is based on semi-automated mapping from satellite images. We utilize readily available remote sensing data to create a model to identify and outline both clean ice and debris-covered glaciers from satellite imagery. We also release data and develop a web tool that allows experts to visualize and correct model predictions, with the ultimate aim of accelerating the glacier mapping process.

Inductive Biases for Deep Learning of Higher-Level Cognition

A fascinating hypothesis is that human and animal intelligence could be explained by a few principles (rather than an encyclopedic list of heuristics). If that hypothesis was correct, we could more easily both understand our own intelligence and build intelligent machines. Just like in physics, the principles themselves would not be sufficient to predict the behavior of complex systems like brains, and substantial computation might be needed to simulate human-like intelligence. This hypothesis would suggest that studying the kind of inductive biases that humans and animals exploit could help both clarify these principles and provide inspiration for AI research and neuroscience theories. Deep learning already exploits several key inductive biases, and this work considers a larger list, focusing on those which concern mostly higher-level and sequential conscious processing. The objective of clarifying these particular principles is that they could potentially help us build AI systems benefiting from humans' abilities in terms of flexible out-of-distribution and systematic generalization, which is currently an area where a large gap exists between state-of-the-art machine learning and human intelligence.

RetroGNN: Approximating Retrosynthesis by Graph Neural Networks for De Novo Drug Design

De novo molecule generation often results in chemically unfeasible molecules. A natural idea to mitigate this problem is to bias the search process towards more easily synthesizable molecules using a proxy for synthetic accessibility. However, using currently available proxies still results in highly unrealistic compounds. We investigate the feasibility of training deep graph neural networks to approximate the outputs of a retrosynthesis planning software, and their use to bias the search process. We evaluate our method on a benchmark involving searching for drug-like molecules with antibiotic properties. Compared to enumerating over five million existing molecules from the ZINC database, our approach finds molecules predicted to be more likely to be antibiotics while maintaining good drug-like properties and being easily synthesizable. Importantly, our deep neural network can successfully filter out hard to synthesize molecules while achieving a $10^5$ times speed-up over using the retrosynthesis planning software.

Gradient Starvation: A Learning Proclivity in Neural Networks

We identify and formalize a fundamental gradient descent phenomenon resulting in a learning proclivity in over-parameterized neural networks. Gradient Starvation arises when cross-entropy loss is minimized by capturing only a subset of features relevant for the task, despite the presence of other predictive features that fail to be discovered. This work provides a theoretical explanation for the emergence of such feature imbalance in neural networks. Using tools from Dynamical Systems theory, we identify simple properties of learning dynamics during gradient descent that lead to this imbalance, and prove that such a situation can be expected given certain statistical structure in training data. Based on our proposed formalism, we develop guarantees for a novel regularization method aimed at decoupling feature learning dynamics, improving accuracy and robustness in cases hindered by gradient starvation. We illustrate our findings with simple and real-world out-of-distribution (OOD) generalization experiments.

COVI-AgentSim: an Agent-based Model for Evaluating Methods of Digital Contact Tracing

The rapid global spread of COVID-19 has led to an unprecedented demand for effective methods to mitigate the spread of the disease, and various digital contact tracing (DCT) methods have emerged as a component of the solution. In order to make informed public health choices, there is a need for tools which allow evaluation and comparison of DCT methods. We introduce an agent-based compartmental simulator we call COVI-AgentSim, integrating detailed consideration of virology, disease progression, social contact networks, and mobility patterns, based on parameters derived from empirical research. We verify by comparing to real data that COVI-AgentSim is able to reproduce realistic COVID-19 spread dynamics, and perform a sensitivity analysis to verify that the relative performance of contact tracing methods are consistent across a range of settings. We use COVI-AgentSim to perform cost-benefit analyses comparing no DCT to: 1) standard binary contact tracing (BCT) that assigns binary recommendations based on binary test results; and 2) a rule-based method for feature-based contact tracing (FCT) that assigns a graded level of recommendation based on diverse individual features. We find all DCT methods consistently reduce the spread of the disease, and that the advantage of FCT over BCT is maintained over a wide range of adoption rates. Feature-based methods of contact tracing avert more disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) per socioeconomic cost (measured by productive hours lost). Our results suggest any DCT method can help save lives, support re-opening of economies, and prevent second-wave outbreaks, and that FCT methods are a promising direction for enriching BCT using self-reported symptoms, yielding earlier warning signals and a significantly reduced spread of the virus per socioeconomic cost.

Predicting Infectiousness for Proactive Contact Tracing

The COVID-19 pandemic has spread rapidly worldwide, overwhelming manual contact tracing in many countries and resulting in widespread lockdowns for emergency containment. Large-scale digital contact tracing (DCT) has emerged as a potential solution to resume economic and social activity while minimizing spread of the virus. Various DCT methods have been proposed, each making trade-offs between privacy, mobility restrictions, and public health. The most common approach, binary contact tracing (BCT), models infection as a binary event, informed only by an individual's test results, with corresponding binary recommendations that either all or none of the individual's contacts quarantine. BCT ignores the inherent uncertainty in contacts and the infection process, which could be used to tailor messaging to high-risk individuals, and prompt proactive testing or earlier warnings. It also does not make use of observations such as symptoms or pre-existing medical conditions, which could be used to make more accurate infectiousness predictions. In this paper, we use a recently-proposed COVID-19 epidemiological simulator to develop and test methods that can be deployed to a smartphone to locally and proactively predict an individual's infectiousness (risk of infecting others) based on their contact history and other information, while respecting strong privacy constraints. Predictions are used to provide personalized recommendations to the individual via an app, as well as to send anonymized messages to the individual's contacts, who use this information to better predict their own infectiousness, an approach we call proactive contact tracing (PCT). We find a deep-learning based PCT method which improves over BCT for equivalent average mobility, suggesting PCT could help in safe re-opening and second-wave prevention.