Robostral Navigate

Deploying navigation systems at scale requires a recipe that minimizes sensor assumptions, generalizes across robot embodiments, and trains efficiently. Yet, today's best systems depend on depth sensors, multi-camera rigs, or pre-built maps, limiting the hardware they support and increasing deployment cost. We introduce Robostral Navigate, an 8B vision-language model built around this scalability objective. The model consumes only a stream of monocular RGB images - the most ubiquitous sensor across robotic platforms and predicts waypoints by pointing to the next target location in the current camera view. Operating purely in image space, rather than robot-specific coordinates, makes the policy naturally robust to changes in camera intrinsics and scene scale, enabling deployment across wheeled, legged, and aerial robots without recalibration. We generate 2.4 million trajectories across 350k simulated scenes to reduce the reliance on real-world data collection and scale easily. We further introduce a prefix-caching training recipe that packs entire episodes into single training sequences, reducing training tokens by 22x and cutting training time from months to days. A tree-based attention mask prevents conditioning on previous ground-truth actions, encouraging visually grounded action prediction, and reinforcement learning is used to further improve exploration and recovery capabilities. On the Room-to-Room and Room-Across-Room in Continuous Environments (R2R-CE and RxR-CE) benchmarks, Robostral Navigate sets a new state of the art. On R2R-CE, it achieves a 77.4% success rate, surpassing the best monocular method by 10.5 points and the strongest depth- or multi-camera system by 5.3 points despite using only a single RGB camera. On RxR-CE, it reaches 75.1% success rate, outperforming all monocular baselines.

Simplifying the Modeling of Arbitrary Conditionals in Natural Language

Causal Transformers model sequences through an autoregressive factorization of the joint distribution, which enables efficient left-to-right decoding and conditional likelihood computation. However, they cannot tractably sample from or evaluate arbitrary conditionals -- e.g., a block of text conditioned on past and future tokens. Recent work aims to solve this problem through novel architectures, but they often lead to sub-optimal modeling of such conditionals and degraded generations. We propose Arbitrary Conditionals GPT (AC-GPT) which introduces a simple modification to standard causal Transformers to enable evaluating and sampling from arbitrary conditionals -- including past, future, and mixed contexts -- within a single forward pass. Unlike prior approaches, our method preserves the standard left-to-right ordering and next-token prediction objective essential for both strong performance and efficient training on natural language. Crucially, this compatibility allows existing LLMs to be fine-tuned for arbitrary conditioning. Our empirical results indicate that our method outperforms baselines on modeling arbitrary conditionals, without degrading standard left-to-right performance.

A Compression Perspective on Simplicity Bias

Deep neural networks exhibit a simplicity bias, a well-documented tendency to favor simple functions over complex ones. In this work, we cast new light on this phenomenon through the lens of the Minimum Description Length principle, formalizing supervised learning as a problem of optimal two-part lossless compression. Our theory explains how simplicity bias governs feature selection in neural networks through a fundamental trade-off between model complexity (the cost of describing the hypothesis) and predictive power (the cost of describing the data). Our framework predicts that as the amount of available training data increases, learners transition through qualitatively different features -- from simple spurious shortcuts to complex features -- only when the reduction in data encoding cost justifies the increased model complexity. Consequently, we identify distinct data regimes where increasing data promotes robustness by ruling out trivial shortcuts, and conversely, regimes where limiting data can act as a form of complexity-based regularization, preventing the learning of unreliable complex environmental cues. We validate our theory on a semi-synthetic benchmark showing that the feature selection of neural networks follows the same trajectory of solutions as optimal two-part compressors.

A Comedy of Estimators: On KL Regularization in RL Training of LLMs

The reasoning performance of large language models (LLMs) can be substantially improved by training them with reinforcement learning (RL). The RL objective for LLM training involves a regularization term, which is the reverse Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence between the trained policy and the reference policy. Since computing the KL divergence exactly is intractable, various estimators are used in practice to estimate it from on-policy samples. Despite its wide adoption, including in several open-source libraries, there is no systematic study analyzing the numerous ways of incorporating KL estimators in the objective and their effect on the downstream performance of RL-trained models. Recent works show that prevailing practices for incorporating KL regularization do not provide correct gradients for stated objectives, creating a discrepancy between the objective and its implementation. In this paper, we further analyze these practices and study the gradients of several estimators configurations, revealing how design choices shape gradient bias. We substantiate these findings with empirical observations by RL fine-tuning \texttt{Qwen2.5-7B}, \texttt{Llama-3.1-8B-Instruct} and \texttt{Qwen3-4B-Instruct-2507} with different configurations and evaluating their performance on both in- and out-of-distribution tasks. Through our analysis, we observe that, in on-policy settings: (1) estimator configurations with biased gradients can result in training instabilities; and (2) using estimator configurations resulting in unbiased gradients leads to better performance on in-domain as well as out-of-domain tasks. We also investigate the performance resulting from different KL configurations in off-policy settings and observe that KL regularization can help stabilize off-policy RL training resulting from asynchronous setups.

Recursive Self-Aggregation Unlocks Deep Thinking in Large Language Models

Test-time scaling methods improve the capabilities of large language models (LLMs) by increasing the amount of compute used during inference to make a prediction. Inference-time compute can be scaled in parallel by choosing among multiple independent solutions or sequentially through self-refinement. We propose Recursive Self-Aggregation (RSA), a test-time scaling method inspired by evolutionary methods that combines the benefits of both parallel and sequential scaling. Each step of RSA refines a population of candidate reasoning chains through aggregation of subsets to yield a population of improved solutions, which are then used as the candidate pool for the next iteration. RSA exploits the rich information embedded in the reasoning chains -- not just the final answers -- and enables bootstrapping from partially correct intermediate steps within different chains of thought. Empirically, RSA delivers substantial performance gains with increasing compute budgets across diverse tasks, model families and sizes. Notably, RSA enables Qwen3-4B-Instruct-2507 to achieve competitive performance with larger reasoning models, including DeepSeek-R1 and o3-mini (high), while outperforming purely parallel and sequential scaling strategies across AIME-25, HMMT-25, Reasoning Gym, LiveCodeBench-v6, and SuperGPQA. We further demonstrate that training the model to combine solutions via a novel aggregation-aware reinforcement learning approach yields significant performance gains. Code available at https://github.com/HyperPotatoNeo/RSA.

Solving Bayesian inverse problems with diffusion priors and off-policy RL

This paper presents a practical application of Relative Trajectory Balance (RTB), a recently introduced off-policy reinforcement learning (RL) objective that can asymptotically solve Bayesian inverse problems optimally. We extend the original work by using RTB to train conditional diffusion model posteriors from pretrained unconditional priors for challenging linear and non-linear inverse problems in vision, and science. We use the objective alongside techniques such as off-policy backtracking exploration to improve training. Importantly, our results show that existing training-free diffusion posterior methods struggle to perform effective posterior inference in latent space due to inherent biases.

In-Context Parametric Inference: Point or Distribution Estimators?

Bayesian and frequentist inference are two fundamental paradigms in statistical estimation. Bayesian methods treat hypotheses as random variables, incorporating priors and updating beliefs via Bayes' theorem, whereas frequentist methods assume fixed but unknown hypotheses, relying on estimators like maximum likelihood. While extensive research has compared these approaches, the frequentist paradigm of obtaining point estimates has become predominant in deep learning, as Bayesian inference is challenging due to the computational complexity and the approximation gap of posterior estimation methods. However, a good understanding of trade-offs between the two approaches is lacking in the regime of amortized estimators, where in-context learners are trained to estimate either point values via maximum likelihood or maximum a posteriori estimation, or full posteriors using normalizing flows, score-based diffusion samplers, or diagonal Gaussian approximations, conditioned on observations. To help resolve this, we conduct a rigorous comparative analysis spanning diverse problem settings, from linear models to shallow neural networks, with a robust evaluation framework assessing both in-distribution and out-of-distribution generalization on tractable tasks. Our experiments indicate that amortized point estimators generally outperform posterior inference, though the latter remain competitive in some low-dimensional problems, and we further discuss why this might be the case.

Amortized In-Context Bayesian Posterior Estimation

Bayesian inference provides a natural way of incorporating prior beliefs and assigning a probability measure to the space of hypotheses. Current solutions rely on iterative routines like Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling and Variational Inference (VI), which need to be re-run whenever new observations are available. Amortization, through conditional estimation, is a viable strategy to alleviate such difficulties and has been the guiding principle behind simulation-based inference, neural processes and in-context methods using pre-trained models. In this work, we conduct a thorough comparative analysis of amortized in-context Bayesian posterior estimation methods from the lens of different optimization objectives and architectural choices. Such methods train an amortized estimator to perform posterior parameter inference by conditioning on a set of data examples passed as context to a sequence model such as a transformer. In contrast to language models, we leverage permutation invariant architectures as the true posterior is invariant to the ordering of context examples. Our empirical study includes generalization to out-of-distribution tasks, cases where the assumed underlying model is misspecified, and transfer from simulated to real problems. Subsequently, it highlights the superiority of the reverse KL estimator for predictive problems, especially when combined with the transformer architecture and normalizing flows.

In-context learning and Occam's razor

The goal of machine learning is generalization. While the No Free Lunch Theorem states that we cannot obtain theoretical guarantees for generalization without further assumptions, in practice we observe that simple models which explain the training data generalize best: a principle called Occam's razor. Despite the need for simple models, most current approaches in machine learning only minimize the training error, and at best indirectly promote simplicity through regularization or architecture design. Here, we draw a connection between Occam's razor and in-context learning: an emergent ability of certain sequence models like Transformers to learn at inference time from past observations in a sequence. In particular, we show that the next-token prediction loss used to train in-context learners is directly equivalent to a data compression technique called prequential coding, and that minimizing this loss amounts to jointly minimizing both the training error and the complexity of the model that was implicitly learned from context. Our theory and the empirical experiments we use to support it not only provide a normative account of in-context learning, but also elucidate the shortcomings of current in-context learning methods, suggesting ways in which they can be improved. We make our code available at https://github.com/3rdCore/PrequentialCode.

Steering Masked Discrete Diffusion Models via Discrete Denoising Posterior Prediction

Generative modeling of discrete data underlies important applications spanning text-based agents like ChatGPT to the design of the very building blocks of life in protein sequences. However, application domains need to exert control over the generated data by steering the generative process - typically via RLHF - to satisfy a specified property, reward, or affinity metric. In this paper, we study the problem of steering Masked Diffusion Models (MDMs), a recent class of discrete diffusion models that offer a compelling alternative to traditional autoregressive models. We introduce Discrete Denoising Posterior Prediction (DDPP), a novel framework that casts the task of steering pre-trained MDMs as a problem of probabilistic inference by learning to sample from a target Bayesian posterior. Our DDPP framework leads to a family of three novel objectives that are all simulation-free, and thus scalable while applying to general non-differentiable reward functions. Empirically, we instantiate DDPP by steering MDMs to perform class-conditional pixel-level image modeling, RLHF-based alignment of MDMs using text-based rewards, and finetuning protein language models to generate more diverse secondary structures and shorter proteins. We substantiate our designs via wet-lab validation, where we observe transient expression of reward-optimized protein sequences.