Deep Neural Network Identification of Limnonectes Species and New Class Detection Using Image Data

As is true of many complex tasks, the work of discovering, describing, and understanding the diversity of life on Earth (viz., biological systematics and taxonomy) requires many tools. Some of this work can be accomplished as it has been done in the past, but some aspects present us with challenges which traditional knowledge and tools cannot adequately resolve. One such challenge is presented by species complexes in which the morphological similarities among the group members make it difficult to reliably identify known species and detect new ones. We address this challenge by developing new tools using the principles of machine learning to resolve two specific questions related to species complexes. The first question is formulated as a classification problem in statistics and machine learning and the second question is an out-of-distribution (OOD) detection problem. We apply these tools to a species complex comprising Southeast Asian stream frogs (Limnonectes kuhlii complex) and employ a morphological character (hind limb skin texture) traditionally treated qualitatively in a quantitative and objective manner. We demonstrate that deep neural networks can successfully automate the classification of an image into a known species group for which it has been trained. We further demonstrate that the algorithm can successfully classify an image into a new class if the image does not belong to the existing classes. Additionally, we use the larger MNIST dataset to test the performance of our OOD detection algorithm. We finish our paper with some concluding remarks regarding the application of these methods to species complexes and our efforts to document true biodiversity. This paper has online supplementary materials.

Bayesian Sparse Regression for Mixed Multi-Responses with Application to Runtime Metrics Prediction in Fog Manufacturing

Fog manufacturing can greatly enhance traditional manufacturing systems through distributed Fog computation units, which are governed by predictive computational workload offloading methods under different Industrial Internet architectures. It is known that the predictive offloading methods highly depend on accurate prediction and uncertainty quantification of runtime performance metrics, containing multivariate mixed-type responses (i.e., continuous, counting, binary). In this work, we propose a Bayesian sparse regression for multivariate mixed responses to enhance the prediction of runtime performance metrics and to enable the statistical inferences. The proposed method considers both group and individual variable selection to jointly model the mixed types of runtime performance metrics. The conditional dependency among multiple responses is described by a graphical model using the precision matrix, where a spike-and-slab prior is used to enable the sparse estimation of the graph. The proposed method not only achieves accurate prediction, but also makes the predictive model more interpretable with statistical inferences on model parameters and prediction in the Fog manufacturing. A simulation study and a real case example in a Fog manufacturing are conducted to demonstrate the merits of the proposed model.

Boosting Sensitivity of Large-scale Online Experimentation via Dropout Buyer Imputation

Metrics provide strong evidence to support hypotheses in online experimentation and hence reduce debates in the decision-making process. In this work, we introduce the concept of dropout buyers and categorize users with incomplete metric values into two groups: visitors and dropout buyers. For the analysis of incomplete metrics, we propose a cluster-based k-nearest neighbors-based imputation method. Our proposed imputation method considers both the experiment-specific features and users' activities along their shopping paths, allowing different imputation values for different users. To facilitate efficient imputation in large-scale data sets in online experimentation, the proposed method uses a combination of stratification and clustering. The performance of the proposed method was compared to several conventional methods in a past experiment at eBay.

Statistical Perspectives on Reliability of Artificial Intelligence Systems

Artificial intelligence (AI) systems have become increasingly popular in many areas. Nevertheless, AI technologies are still in their developing stages, and many issues need to be addressed. Among those, the reliability of AI systems needs to be demonstrated so that the AI systems can be used with confidence by the general public. In this paper, we provide statistical perspectives on the reliability of AI systems. Different from other considerations, the reliability of AI systems focuses on the time dimension. That is, the system can perform its designed functionality for the intended period. We introduce a so-called SMART statistical framework for AI reliability research, which includes five components: Structure of the system, Metrics of reliability, Analysis of failure causes, Reliability assessment, and Test planning. We review traditional methods in reliability data analysis and software reliability, and discuss how those existing methods can be transformed for reliability modeling and assessment of AI systems. We also describe recent developments in modeling and analysis of AI reliability and outline statistical research challenges in this area, including out-of-distribution detection, the effect of the training set, adversarial attacks, model accuracy, and uncertainty quantification, and discuss how those topics can be related to AI reliability, with illustrative examples. Finally, we discuss data collection and test planning for AI reliability assessment and how to improve system designs for higher AI reliability. The paper closes with some concluding remarks.

Tight Mutual Information Estimation With Contrastive Fenchel-Legendre Optimization

Successful applications of InfoNCE and its variants have popularized the use of contrastive variational mutual information (MI) estimators in machine learning. While featuring superior stability, these estimators crucially depend on costly large-batch training, and they sacrifice bound tightness for variance reduction. To overcome these limitations, we revisit the mathematics of popular variational MI bounds from the lens of unnormalized statistical modeling and convex optimization. Our investigation not only yields a new unified theoretical framework encompassing popular variational MI bounds but also leads to a novel, simple, and powerful contrastive MI estimator named as FLO. Theoretically, we show that the FLO estimator is tight, and it provably converges under stochastic gradient descent. Empirically, our FLO estimator overcomes the limitations of its predecessors and learns more efficiently. The utility of FLO is verified using an extensive set of benchmarks, which also reveals the trade-offs in practical MI estimation.

JST-RR Model: Joint Modeling of Ratings and Reviews in Sentiment-Topic Prediction

Analysis of online reviews has attracted great attention with broad applications. Often times, the textual reviews are coupled with the numerical ratings in the data. In this work, we propose a probabilistic model to accommodate both textual reviews and overall ratings with consideration of their intrinsic connection for a joint sentiment-topic prediction. The key of the proposed method is to develop a unified generative model where the topic modeling is constructed based on review texts and the sentiment prediction is obtained by combining review texts and overall ratings. The inference of model parameters are obtained by an efficient Gibbs sampling procedure. The proposed method can enhance the prediction accuracy of review data and achieve an effective detection of interpretable topics and sentiments. The merits of the proposed method are elaborated by the case study from Amazon datasets and simulation studies.

Investigating the Robustness of Artificial Intelligent Algorithms with Mixture Experiments

Artificial intelligent (AI) algorithms, such as deep learning and XGboost, are used in numerous applications including computer vision, autonomous driving, and medical diagnostics. The robustness of these AI algorithms is of great interest as inaccurate prediction could result in safety concerns and limit the adoption of AI systems. In this paper, we propose a framework based on design of experiments to systematically investigate the robustness of AI classification algorithms. A robust classification algorithm is expected to have high accuracy and low variability under different application scenarios. The robustness can be affected by a wide range of factors such as the imbalance of class labels in the training dataset, the chosen prediction algorithm, the chosen dataset of the application, and a change of distribution in the training and test datasets. To investigate the robustness of AI classification algorithms, we conduct a comprehensive set of mixture experiments to collect prediction performance results. Then statistical analyses are conducted to understand how various factors affect the robustness of AI classification algorithms. We summarize our findings and provide suggestions to practitioners in AI applications.

An Improved Modified Cholesky Decomposition Method for Inverse Covariance Matrix Estimation

The modified Cholesky decomposition is commonly used for inverse covariance matrix estimation given a specified order of random variables. However, the order of variables is often not available or cannot be pre-determined. Hence, we propose a novel estimator to address the variable order issue in the modified Cholesky decomposition to estimate the sparse inverse covariance matrix. The key idea is to effectively combine a set of estimates obtained from multiple permutations of variable orders, and to efficiently encourage the sparse structure for the resultant estimate by the use of thresholding technique on the combined Cholesky factor matrix. The consistent property of the proposed estimate is established under some weak regularity conditions. Simulation studies show the superior performance of the proposed method in comparison with several existing approaches. We also apply the proposed method into the linear discriminant analysis for analyzing real-data examples for classification.

Sparse Estimation of Multivariate Poisson Log-Normal Models from Count Data

Modeling data with multivariate count responses is a challenging problem due to the discrete nature of the responses. Existing methods for univariate count responses cannot be easily extended to the multivariate case since the dependency among multiple responses needs to be properly accommodated. In this paper, we propose a multivariate Poisson log-normal regression model for multivariate data with count responses. By simultaneously estimating the regression coefficients and inverse covariance matrix over the latent variables with an efficient Monte Carlo EM algorithm, the proposed regression model takes advantages of association among multiple count responses to improve the model prediction performance. Simulation studies and applications to real world data are conducted to systematically evaluate the performance of the proposed method in comparison with conventional methods.