CITRIS: Causal Identifiability from Temporal Intervened Sequences

Understanding the latent causal factors of a dynamical system from visual observations is a crucial step towards agents reasoning in complex environments. In this paper, we propose CITRIS, a variational autoencoder framework that learns causal representations from temporal sequences of images in which underlying causal factors have possibly been intervened upon. In contrast to the recent literature, CITRIS exploits temporality and observing intervention targets to identify scalar and multidimensional causal factors, such as 3D rotation angles. Furthermore, by introducing a normalizing flow, CITRIS can be easily extended to leverage and disentangle representations obtained by already pretrained autoencoders. Extending previous results on scalar causal factors, we prove identifiability in a more general setting, in which only some components of a causal factor are affected by interventions. In experiments on 3D rendered image sequences, CITRIS outperforms previous methods on recovering the underlying causal variables. Moreover, using pretrained autoencoders, CITRIS can even generalize to unseen instantiations of causal factors, opening future research areas in sim-to-real generalization for causal representation learning.

AdaRL: What, Where, and How to Adapt in Transfer Reinforcement Learning

Most approaches in reinforcement learning (RL) are data-hungry and specific to fixed environments. In this paper, we propose a principled framework for adaptive RL, called AdaRL, that adapts reliably to changes across domains. Specifically, we construct a generative environment model for the structural relationships among variables in the system and embed the changes in a compact way, which provides a clear and interpretable picture for locating what and where the changes are and how to adapt. Based on the environment model, we characterize a minimal set of representations, including both domain-specific factors and domain-shared state representations, that suffice for reliable and low-cost transfer. Moreover, we show that by explicitly leveraging a compact representation to encode changes, we can adapt the policy with only a few samples without further policy optimization in the target domain. We illustrate the efficacy of AdaRL through a series of experiments that allow for changes in different components of Cartpole and Atari games.

Active Structure Learning of Causal DAGs via Directed Clique Tree

A growing body of work has begun to study intervention design for efficient structure learning of causal directed acyclic graphs (DAGs). A typical setting is a causally sufficient setting, i.e. a system with no latent confounders, selection bias, or feedback, when the essential graph of the observational equivalence class (EC) is given as an input and interventions are assumed to be noiseless. Most existing works focus on worst-case or average-case lower bounds for the number of interventions required to orient a DAG. These worst-case lower bounds only establish that the largest clique in the essential graph could make it difficult to learn the true DAG. In this work, we develop a universal lower bound for single-node interventions that establishes that the largest clique is always a fundamental impediment to structure learning. Specifically, we present a decomposition of a DAG into independently orientable components through directed clique trees and use it to prove that the number of single-node interventions necessary to orient any DAG in an EC is at least the sum of half the size of the largest cliques in each chain component of the essential graph. Moreover, we present a two-phase intervention design algorithm that, under certain conditions on the chordal skeleton, matches the optimal number of interventions up to a multiplicative logarithmic factor in the number of maximal cliques. We show via synthetic experiments that our algorithm can scale to much larger graphs than most of the related work and achieves better worst-case performance than other scalable approaches. A code base to recreate these results can be found at https://github.com/csquires/dct-policy

Verifiably Safe Exploration for End-to-End Reinforcement Learning

Deploying deep reinforcement learning in safety-critical settings requires developing algorithms that obey hard constraints during exploration. This paper contributes a first approach toward enforcing formal safety constraints on end-to-end policies with visual inputs. Our approach draws on recent advances in object detection and automated reasoning for hybrid dynamical systems. The approach is evaluated on a novel benchmark that emphasizes the challenge of safely exploring in the presence of hard constraints. Our benchmark draws from several proposed problem sets for safe learning and includes problems that emphasize challenges such as reward signals that are not aligned with safety constraints. On each of these benchmark problems, our algorithm completely avoids unsafe behavior while remaining competitive at optimizing for as much reward as is safe. We also prove that our method of enforcing the safety constraints preserves all safe policies from the original environment.

Domain Adaptation by Using Causal Inference to Predict Invariant Conditional Distributions

An important goal common to domain adaptation and causal inference is to make accurate predictions when the distributions for the source (or training) domain(s) and target (or test) domain(s) differ. In many cases, these different distributions can be modeled as different contexts of a single underlying system, in which each distribution corresponds to a different perturbation of the system, or in causal terms, an intervention. We focus on a class of such causal domain adaptation problems, where data for one or more source domains are given, and the task is to predict the distribution of a certain target variable from measurements of other variables in one or more target domains. We propose an approach for solving these problems that exploits causal inference and does not rely on prior knowledge of the causal graph, the type of interventions or the intervention targets. We demonstrate our approach by evaluating a possible implementation on simulated and real world data.

An Upper Bound for Random Measurement Error in Causal Discovery

Causal discovery algorithms infer causal relations from data based on several assumptions, including notably the absence of measurement error. However, this assumption is most likely violated in practical applications, which may result in erroneous, irreproducible results. In this work we show how to obtain an upper bound for the variance of random measurement error from the covariance matrix of measured variables and how to use this upper bound as a correction for constraint-based causal discovery. We demonstrate a practical application of our approach on both simulated data and real-world protein signaling data.

Joint Causal Inference from Multiple Contexts

The gold standard for discovering causal relations is by means of experimentation. Over the last decades, alternative methods have been proposed that can infer causal relations between variables from certain statistical patterns in purely observational data. We introduce Joint Causal Inference (JCI), a novel approach to causal discovery from multiple data sets that elegantly unifies both approaches. JCI is a causal modeling approach rather than a specific algorithm, and it can be used in combination with any causal discovery algorithm that can take into account certain background knowledge. The main idea is to reduce causal discovery from multiple datasets originating from different contexts (e.g., different experimental conditions) to causal discovery from a single pooled dataset by adding a set of auxiliary context variables. JCI offers the following features: it deals with several different types of interventions in a unified fashion, it can learn intervention targets, it pools data across different datasets which improves the statistical power of independence tests, and by exploiting differences in distribution between contexts it improves on the accuracy and identifiability of the predicted causal relations. We evaluate the approach on flow cytometry data.

Ancestral Causal Inference

Constraint-based causal discovery from limited data is a notoriously difficult challenge due to the many borderline independence test decisions. Several approaches to improve the reliability of the predictions by exploiting redundancy in the independence information have been proposed recently. Though promising, existing approaches can still be greatly improved in terms of accuracy and scalability. We present a novel method that reduces the combinatorial explosion of the search space by using a more coarse-grained representation of causal information, drastically reducing computation time. Additionally, we propose a method to score causal predictions based on their confidence. Crucially, our implementation also allows one to easily combine observational and interventional data and to incorporate various types of available background knowledge. We prove soundness and asymptotic consistency of our method and demonstrate that it can outperform the state-of-the-art on synthetic data, achieving a speedup of several orders of magnitude. We illustrate its practical feasibility by applying it on a challenging protein data set.