Context-Informed Ship Trajectory Prediction via Conditional Attention

Long-term ship trajectory prediction is a fundamental capability for maritime safety and autonomous navigation. While recent Transformer-based architectures have improved forecasting horizons, they predominantly rely on historical kinematic states, treating vessel motion as an isolated system. In reality, maritime navigation is profoundly modulated by extrinsic factors like weather and constrained by static vessel characteristics. Existing multimodal approaches fundamentally model the joint distribution over states and contexts, treating environmental variables as peer features rather than encoding the directional physical dependence of vessel dynamics on environmental conditions. In this work, we propose the Conditional Informer, a novel encoder-decoder architecture that formulates trajectory prediction as a conditional generation task. We employ a dedicated Conditional Attention mechanism where the vessel state explicitly queries environmental contexts through cross-attention, encoding the physical prior that weather modulates - but is not generated by - vessel dynamics. Furthermore, to address the intermittency of real-world data, we introduce a Modality Masking training strategy to prevent catastrophic degradation during sensor fallback. Extensive experiments on AIS and ERA5 data demonstrate that our approach outperforms kinematic and concatenation-based baselines by 15.4% in prediction accuracy when context is available. Crucially, Modality Masking prevents shortcut learning, reducing fallback error by nearly an order of magnitude compared to unconstrained models.

Catastrophic Compositional Generation: Why Vanilla Diffusion Models Fail to Extrapolate

The task of compositional generation involves using a conditional generative model, trained only on a subset of the possible conditions, to produce samples from compositionally-defined target distributions such as a geometric combination of the source distributions. In this work, we argue that this task is often infeasible for vanilla conditional diffusion models: we conjecture that no inference-time technique can efficiently produce samples from the target distribution in certain well-motivated settings. This idea is supported by theory-guided generalization arguments and carefully-designed experiments on both synthetic and realistic data. In particular, while recent methods such as Feynman-Kac correction reduce inference-time approximation error, our results show that score estimation error has a more catastrophic effect on performance when the target distribution is out-of-distribution with respect to the sources, highlighting the need for a different approach to this task.

Concept Modulation Models: A Unified Framework for Identifiability and Extrapolation

Reliable generalization in conditional latent variable models requires understanding both identifiability and extrapolation: how observed variation across attributes determines latent structure, and how that structure determines distributions at unseen attributes. However, existing identifiability and extrapolation guarantees are largely model-specific, with separate analyses in nonlinear ICA, causal representation learning, perturbation modeling, and related conditional latent variable models. We introduce concept modulation models (CMMs), an attribute-indexed class of conditional generative models with structure $A\to Λ\to C\to X$, where attributes select modulators, modulators induce latent concept laws, and concepts generate observed features. CMMs lift transition-based identifiability to conditional settings by showing that feature agreement on observed attributes induces a latent concept transition constrained by the CMM class. We express these constraints through attribute potentials, log-density ratios between attribute-conditioned concept laws, separating the generic lifting step from model-specific rigidity arguments. The same potentials control extrapolation: agreement at unseen attributes holds exactly when the transported attribute-potential identities extend to those attributes. This yields algebraic extrapolation criteria, identifies the common potential-based proof objects behind several existing identifiability and extrapolation results, and, when combined with the model-specific rigidity arguments in those works, recovers their stated conclusions.

A Unifying Framework for Unsupervised Concept Extraction

Techniques for concept extraction, such as sparse autoencoders and transcoders, aim to extract high-level symbolic concepts from low-level nonsymbolic representations. When these extracted concepts are used for downstream tasks such as model steering and unlearning, it is essential to understand their guarantees, or lack thereof. In this work, we present a unified theoretical framework for unsupervised concept extraction, in which we frame the task of concept extraction as identifying a generative model. We present a general meta-theorem for identifiability, which reduces the problem of establishing identifiability guarantees to the problem of characterizing the intersection of two sets. As we demonstrate on a range of widely-used approaches, this meta-theorem substantially simplifies the task of proving such guarantees, thus paving the way for the development of new, principled approaches for concept extraction.

The Landscape of Causal Discovery Data: Grounding Causal Discovery in Real-World Applications

Causal discovery aims to automatically uncover causal relationships from data, a capability with significant potential across many scientific disciplines. However, its real-world applications remain limited. Current methods often rely on unrealistic assumptions and are evaluated only on simple synthetic toy datasets, often with inadequate evaluation metrics. In this paper, we substantiate these claims by performing a systematic review of the recent causal discovery literature. We present applications in biology, neuroscience, and Earth sciences - fields where causal discovery holds promise for addressing key challenges. We highlight available simulated and real-world datasets from these domains and discuss common assumption violations that have spurred the development of new methods. Our goal is to encourage the community to adopt better evaluation practices by utilizing realistic datasets and more adequate metrics.

Probably approximately correct high-dimensional causal effect estimation given a valid adjustment set

Accurate estimates of causal effects play a key role in decision-making across applications such as healthcare, economics, and operations. In the absence of randomized experiments, a common approach to estimating causal effects uses \textit{covariate adjustment}. In this paper, we study covariate adjustment for discrete distributions from the PAC learning perspective, assuming knowledge of a valid adjustment set $\bZ$, which might be high-dimensional. Our first main result PAC-bounds the estimation error of covariate adjustment by a term that is exponential in the size of the adjustment set; it is known that such a dependency is unavoidable even if one only aims to minimize the mean squared error. Motivated by this result, we introduce the notion of an \emph{$\eps$-Markov blanket}, give bounds on the misspecification error of using such a set for covariate adjustment, and provide an algorithm for $\eps$-Markov blanket discovery; our second main result upper bounds the sample complexity of this algorithm. Furthermore, we provide a misspecification error bound and a constraint-based algorithm that allow us to go beyond $\eps$-Markov blankets to even smaller adjustment sets. Our third main result upper bounds the sample complexity of this algorithm, and our final result combines the first three into an overall PAC bound. Altogether, our results highlight that one does not need to perfectly recover causal structure in order to ensure accurate estimates of causal effects.

Synthetic Potential Outcomes for Mixtures of Treatment Effects

Modern data analysis frequently relies on the use of large datasets, often constructed as amalgamations of diverse populations or data-sources. Heterogeneity across these smaller datasets constitutes two major challenges for causal inference: (1) the source of each sample can introduce latent confounding between treatment and effect, and (2) diverse populations may respond differently to the same treatment, giving rise to heterogeneous treatment effects (HTEs). The issues of latent confounding and HTEs have been studied separately but not in conjunction. In particular, previous works only report the conditional average treatment effect (CATE) among similar individuals (with respect to the measured covariates). CATEs cannot resolve mixtures of potential treatment effects driven by latent heterogeneity, which we call mixtures of treatment effects (MTEs). Inspired by method of moment approaches to mixture models, we propose "synthetic potential outcomes" (SPOs). Our new approach deconfounds heterogeneity while also guaranteeing the identifiability of MTEs. This technique bypasses full recovery of a mixture, which significantly simplifies its requirements for identifiability. We demonstrate the efficacy of SPOs on synthetic data.

Causal Imputation for Counterfactual SCMs: Bridging Graphs and Latent Factor Models

We consider the task of causal imputation, where we aim to predict the outcomes of some set of actions across a wide range of possible contexts. As a running example, we consider predicting how different drugs affect cells from different cell types. We study the index-only setting, where the actions and contexts are categorical variables with a finite number of possible values. Even in this simple setting, a practical challenge arises, since often only a small subset of possible action-context pairs have been studied. Thus, models must extrapolate to novel action-context pairs, which can be framed as a form of matrix completion with rows indexed by actions, columns indexed by contexts, and matrix entries corresponding to outcomes. We introduce a novel SCM-based model class, where the outcome is expressed as a counterfactual, actions are expressed as interventions on an instrumental variable, and contexts are defined based on the initial state of the system. We show that, under a linearity assumption, this setup induces a latent factor model over the matrix of outcomes, with an additional fixed effect term. To perform causal prediction based on this model class, we introduce simple extension to the Synthetic Interventions estimator (Agarwal et al., 2020). We evaluate several matrix completion approaches on the PRISM drug repurposing dataset, showing that our method outperforms all other considered matrix completion approaches.

Identifiability Guarantees for Causal Disentanglement from Soft Interventions

Causal disentanglement aims to uncover a representation of data using latent variables that are interrelated through a causal model. Such a representation is identifiable if the latent model that explains the data is unique. In this paper, we focus on the scenario where unpaired observational and interventional data are available, with each intervention changing the mechanism of a latent variable. When the causal variables are fully observed, statistically consistent algorithms have been developed to identify the causal model under faithfulness assumptions. We here show that identifiability can still be achieved with unobserved causal variables, given a generalized notion of faithfulness. Our results guarantee that we can recover the latent causal model up to an equivalence class and predict the effect of unseen combinations of interventions, in the limit of infinite data. We implement our causal disentanglement framework by developing an autoencoding variational Bayes algorithm and apply it to the problem of predicting combinatorial perturbation effects in genomics.

Unpaired Multi-Domain Causal Representation Learning

The goal of causal representation learning is to find a representation of data that consists of causally related latent variables. We consider a setup where one has access to data from multiple domains that potentially share a causal representation. Crucially, observations in different domains are assumed to be unpaired, that is, we only observe the marginal distribution in each domain but not their joint distribution. In this paper, we give sufficient conditions for identifiability of the joint distribution and the shared causal graph in a linear setup. Identifiability holds if we can uniquely recover the joint distribution and the shared causal representation from the marginal distributions in each domain. We transform our identifiability results into a practical method to recover the shared latent causal graph. Moreover, we study how multiple domains reduce errors in falsely detecting shared causal variables in the finite data setting.