A Comparative Study of Traditional Machine Learning, Deep Learning, and Large Language Models for Mental Health Forecasting using Smartphone Sensing Data

Smartphone sensing offers an unobtrusive and scalable way to track daily behaviors linked to mental health, capturing changes in sleep, mobility, and phone use that often precede symptoms of stress, anxiety, or depression. While most prior studies focus on detection that responds to existing conditions, forecasting mental health enables proactive support through Just-in-Time Adaptive Interventions. In this paper, we present the first comprehensive benchmarking study comparing traditional machine learning (ML), deep learning (DL), and large language model (LLM) approaches for mental health forecasting using the College Experience Sensing (CES) dataset, the most extensive longitudinal dataset of college student mental health to date. We systematically evaluate models across temporal windows, feature granularities, personalization strategies, and class imbalance handling. Our results show that DL models, particularly Transformer (Macro-F1 = 0.58), achieve the best overall performance, while LLMs show strength in contextual reasoning but weaker temporal modeling. Personalization substantially improves forecasts of severe mental health states. By revealing how different modeling approaches interpret phone sensing behavioral data over time, this work lays the groundwork for next-generation, adaptive, and human-centered mental health technologies that can advance both research and real-world well-being.

With Great Capabilities Come Great Responsibilities: Introducing the Agentic Risk & Capability Framework for Governing Agentic AI Systems

Agentic AI systems present both significant opportunities and novel risks due to their capacity for autonomous action, encompassing tasks such as code execution, internet interaction, and file modification. This poses considerable challenges for effective organizational governance, particularly in comprehensively identifying, assessing, and mitigating diverse and evolving risks. To tackle this, we introduce the Agentic Risk \& Capability (ARC) Framework, a technical governance framework designed to help organizations identify, assess, and mitigate risks arising from agentic AI systems. The framework's core contributions are: (1) it develops a novel capability-centric perspective to analyze a wide range of agentic AI systems; (2) it distills three primary sources of risk intrinsic to agentic AI systems - components, design, and capabilities; (3) it establishes a clear nexus between each risk source, specific materialized risks, and corresponding technical controls; and (4) it provides a structured and practical approach to help organizations implement the framework. This framework provides a robust and adaptable methodology for organizations to navigate the complexities of agentic AI, enabling rapid and effective innovation while ensuring the safe, secure, and responsible deployment of agentic AI systems. Our framework is open-sourced \href{https://govtech-responsibleai.github.io/agentic-risk-capability-framework/}{here}.

Modeling Narrative Archetypes in Conspiratorial Narratives: Insights from Singapore-Based Telegram Groups

Conspiratorial discourse is increasingly embedded within digital communication ecosystems, yet its structure and spread remain difficult to study. This work analyzes conspiratorial narratives in Singapore-based Telegram groups, showing that such content is woven into everyday discussions rather than confined to isolated echo chambers. We propose a two-stage computational framework. First, we fine-tune RoBERTa-large to classify messages as conspiratorial or not, achieving an F1-score of 0.866 on 2,000 expert-labeled messages. Second, we build a signed belief graph in which nodes represent messages and edge signs reflect alignment in belief labels, weighted by textual similarity. We introduce a Signed Belief Graph Neural Network (SiBeGNN) that uses a Sign Disentanglement Loss to learn embeddings that separate ideological alignment from stylistic features. Using hierarchical clustering on these embeddings, we identify seven narrative archetypes across 553,648 messages: legal topics, medical concerns, media discussions, finance, contradictions in authority, group moderation, and general chat. SiBeGNN yields stronger clustering quality (cDBI = 8.38) than baseline methods (13.60 to 67.27), supported by 88 percent inter-rater agreement in expert evaluations. Our analysis shows that conspiratorial messages appear not only in clusters focused on skepticism or distrust, but also within routine discussions of finance, law, and everyday matters. These findings challenge common assumptions about online radicalization by demonstrating that conspiratorial discourse operates within ordinary social interaction. The proposed framework advances computational methods for belief-driven discourse analysis and offers applications for stance detection, political communication studies, and content moderation policy.

Multi-Agent VLMs Guided Self-Training with PNU Loss for Low-Resource Offensive Content Detection

Accurate detection of offensive content on social media demands high-quality labeled data; however, such data is often scarce due to the low prevalence of offensive instances and the high cost of manual annotation. To address this low-resource challenge, we propose a self-training framework that leverages abundant unlabeled data through collaborative pseudo-labeling. Starting with a lightweight classifier trained on limited labeled data, our method iteratively assigns pseudo-labels to unlabeled instances with the support of Multi-Agent Vision-Language Models (MA-VLMs). Un-labeled data on which the classifier and MA-VLMs agree are designated as the Agreed-Unknown set, while conflicting samples form the Disagreed-Unknown set. To enhance label reliability, MA-VLMs simulate dual perspectives, moderator and user, capturing both regulatory and subjective viewpoints. The classifier is optimized using a novel Positive-Negative-Unlabeled (PNU) loss, which jointly exploits labeled, Agreed-Unknown, and Disagreed-Unknown data while mitigating pseudo-label noise. Experiments on benchmark datasets demonstrate that our framework substantially outperforms baselines under limited supervision and approaches the performance of large-scale models

The Imperfect Learner: Incorporating Developmental Trajectories in Memory-based Student Simulation

User simulation is important for developing and evaluating human-centered AI, yet current student simulation in educational applications has significant limitations. Existing approaches focus on single learning experiences and do not account for students' gradual knowledge construction and evolving skill sets. Moreover, large language models are optimized to produce direct and accurate responses, making it challenging to represent the incomplete understanding and developmental constraints that characterize real learners. In this paper, we introduce a novel framework for memory-based student simulation that incorporates developmental trajectories through a hierarchical memory mechanism with structured knowledge representation. The framework also integrates metacognitive processes and personality traits to enrich the individual learner profiling, through dynamical consolidation of both cognitive development and personal learning characteristics. In practice, we implement a curriculum-aligned simulator grounded on the Next Generation Science Standards. Experimental results show that our approach can effectively reflect the gradual nature of knowledge development and the characteristic difficulties students face, providing a more accurate representation of learning processes.

Toxicity Red-Teaming: Benchmarking LLM Safety in Singapore's Low-Resource Languages

The advancement of Large Language Models (LLMs) has transformed natural language processing; however, their safety mechanisms remain under-explored in low-resource, multilingual settings. Here, we aim to bridge this gap. In particular, we introduce \textsf{SGToxicGuard}, a novel dataset and evaluation framework for benchmarking LLM safety in Singapore's diverse linguistic context, including Singlish, Chinese, Malay, and Tamil. SGToxicGuard adopts a red-teaming approach to systematically probe LLM vulnerabilities in three real-world scenarios: \textit{conversation}, \textit{question-answering}, and \textit{content composition}. We conduct extensive experiments with state-of-the-art multilingual LLMs, and the results uncover critical gaps in their safety guardrails. By offering actionable insights into cultural sensitivity and toxicity mitigation, we lay the foundation for safer and more inclusive AI systems in linguistically diverse environments.\footnote{Link to the dataset: https://github.com/Social-AI-Studio/SGToxicGuard.} \textcolor{red}{Disclaimer: This paper contains sensitive content that may be disturbing to some readers.}

Persuasion Dynamics in LLMs: Investigating Robustness and Adaptability in Knowledge and Safety with DuET-PD

Large Language Models (LLMs) can struggle to balance gullibility to misinformation and resistance to valid corrections in persuasive dialogues, a critical challenge for reliable deployment. We introduce DuET-PD (Dual Evaluation for Trust in Persuasive Dialogues), a framework evaluating multi-turn stance-change dynamics across dual dimensions: persuasion type (corrective/misleading) and domain (knowledge via MMLU-Pro, and safety via SALAD-Bench). We find that even a state-of-the-art model like GPT-4o achieves only 27.32% accuracy in MMLU-Pro under sustained misleading persuasions. Moreover, results reveal a concerning trend of increasing sycophancy in newer open-source models. To address this, we introduce Holistic DPO, a training approach balancing positive and negative persuasion examples. Unlike prompting or resist-only training, Holistic DPO enhances both robustness to misinformation and receptiveness to corrections, improving Llama-3.1-8B-Instruct's accuracy under misleading persuasion in safety contexts from 4.21% to 76.54%. These contributions offer a pathway to developing more reliable and adaptable LLMs for multi-turn dialogue. Code is available at https://github.com/Social-AI-Studio/DuET-PD.

BGM-HAN: A Hierarchical Attention Network for Accurate and Fair Decision Assessment on Semi-Structured Profiles

Human decision-making in high-stakes domains often relies on expertise and heuristics, but is vulnerable to hard-to-detect cognitive biases that threaten fairness and long-term outcomes. This work presents a novel approach to enhancing complex decision-making workflows through the integration of hierarchical learning alongside various enhancements. Focusing on university admissions as a representative high-stakes domain, we propose BGM-HAN, an enhanced Byte-Pair Encoded, Gated Multi-head Hierarchical Attention Network, designed to effectively model semi-structured applicant data. BGM-HAN captures multi-level representations that are crucial for nuanced assessment, improving both interpretability and predictive performance. Experimental results on real admissions data demonstrate that our proposed model significantly outperforms both state-of-the-art baselines from traditional machine learning to large language models, offering a promising framework for augmenting decision-making in domains where structure, context, and fairness matter. Source code is available at: https://github.com/junhua/bgm-han.

Toxicity-Aware Few-Shot Prompting for Low-Resource Singlish Translation

As online communication increasingly incorporates under-represented languages and colloquial dialects, standard translation systems often fail to preserve local slang, code-mixing, and culturally embedded markers of harmful speech. Translating toxic content between low-resource language pairs poses additional challenges due to scarce parallel data and safety filters that sanitize offensive expressions. In this work, we propose a reproducible, two-stage framework for toxicity-preserving translation, demonstrated on a code-mixed Singlish safety corpus. First, we perform human-verified few-shot prompt engineering: we iteratively curate and rank annotator-selected Singlish-target examples to capture nuanced slang, tone, and toxicity. Second, we optimize model-prompt pairs by benchmarking several large language models using semantic similarity via direct and back-translation. Quantitative human evaluation confirms the effectiveness and efficiency of our pipeline. Beyond improving translation quality, our framework contributes to the safety of multicultural LLMs by supporting culturally sensitive moderation and benchmarking in low-resource contexts. By positioning Singlish as a testbed for inclusive NLP, we underscore the importance of preserving sociolinguistic nuance in real-world applications such as content moderation and regional platform governance.

LongWriter-Zero: Mastering Ultra-Long Text Generation via Reinforcement Learning

Ultra-long generation by large language models (LLMs) is a widely demanded scenario, yet it remains a significant challenge due to their maximum generation length limit and overall quality degradation as sequence length increases. Previous approaches, exemplified by LongWriter, typically rely on ''teaching'', which involves supervised fine-tuning (SFT) on synthetic long-form outputs. However, this strategy heavily depends on synthetic SFT data, which is difficult and costly to construct, often lacks coherence and consistency, and tends to be overly artificial and structurally monotonous. In this work, we propose an incentivization-based approach that, starting entirely from scratch and without relying on any annotated or synthetic data, leverages reinforcement learning (RL) to foster the emergence of ultra-long, high-quality text generation capabilities in LLMs. We perform RL training starting from a base model, similar to R1-Zero, guiding it to engage in reasoning that facilitates planning and refinement during the writing process. To support this, we employ specialized reward models that steer the LLM towards improved length control, writing quality, and structural formatting. Experimental evaluations show that our LongWriter-Zero model, trained from Qwen2.5-32B, consistently outperforms traditional SFT methods on long-form writing tasks, achieving state-of-the-art results across all metrics on WritingBench and Arena-Write, and even surpassing 100B+ models such as DeepSeek R1 and Qwen3-235B. We open-source our data and model checkpoints under https://huggingface.co/THU-KEG/LongWriter-Zero-32B