Synthetic Data Applications in Finance

Synthetic data has made tremendous strides in various commercial settings including finance, healthcare, and virtual reality. We present a broad overview of prototypical applications of synthetic data in the financial sector and in particular provide richer details for a few select ones. These cover a wide variety of data modalities including tabular, time-series, event-series, and unstructured arising from both markets and retail financial applications. Since finance is a highly regulated industry, synthetic data is a potential approach for dealing with issues related to privacy, fairness, and explainability. Various metrics are utilized in evaluating the quality and effectiveness of our approaches in these applications. We conclude with open directions in synthetic data in the context of the financial domain.

Fast Learning of Multidimensional Hawkes Processes via Frank-Wolfe

Hawkes processes have recently risen to the forefront of tools when it comes to modeling and generating sequential events data. Multidimensional Hawkes processes model both the self and cross-excitation between different types of events and have been applied successfully in various domain such as finance, epidemiology and personalized recommendations, among others. In this work we present an adaptation of the Frank-Wolfe algorithm for learning multidimensional Hawkes processes. Experimental results show that our approach has better or on par accuracy in terms of parameter estimation than other first order methods, while enjoying a significantly faster runtime.

Online Learning for Mixture of Multivariate Hawkes Processes

Online learning of Hawkes processes has received increasing attention in the last couple of years especially for modeling a network of actors. However, these works typically either model the rich interaction between the events or the latent cluster of the actors or the network structure between the actors. We propose to model the latent structure of the network of actors as well as their rich interaction across events for real-world settings of medical and financial applications. Experimental results on both synthetic and real-world data showcase the efficacy of our approach.

Differentially Private Learning of Hawkes Processes

Hawkes processes have recently gained increasing attention from the machine learning community for their versatility in modeling event sequence data. While they have a rich history going back decades, some of their properties, such as sample complexity for learning the parameters and releasing differentially private versions, are yet to be thoroughly analyzed. In this work, we study standard Hawkes processes with background intensity $\mu$ and excitation function $\alpha e^{-\beta t}$. We provide both non-private and differentially private estimators of $\mu$ and $\alpha$, and obtain sample complexity results in both settings to quantify the cost of privacy. Our analysis exploits the strong mixing property of Hawkes processes and classical central limit theorem results for weakly dependent random variables. We validate our theoretical findings on both synthetic and real datasets.

A Minimax Lower Bound for Low-Rank Matrix-Variate Logistic Regression

This paper considers the problem of matrix-variate logistic regression. The fundamental error threshold on estimating coefficient matrices in the logistic regression problem is found by deriving a lower bound on the minimax risk. The focus of this paper is on derivation of a minimax risk lower bound for low-rank coefficient matrices. The bound depends explicitly on the dimensions and distribution of the covariates, the rank and energy of the coefficient matrix, and the number of samples. The resulting bound is proportional to the intrinsic degrees of freedom in the problem, which suggests the sample complexity of the low-rank matrix logistic regression problem can be lower than that for vectorized logistic regression. \color{red}\color{black} The proof techniques utilized in this work also set the stage for development of minimax lower bounds for tensor-variate logistic regression problems.

Learning Mixtures of Separable Dictionaries for Tensor Data: Analysis and Algorithms

This work addresses the problem of learning sparse representations of tensor data using structured dictionary learning. It proposes learning a mixture of separable dictionaries to better capture the structure of tensor data by generalizing the separable dictionary learning model. Two different approaches for learning mixture of separable dictionaries are explored and sufficient conditions for local identifiability of the underlying dictionary are derived in each case. Moreover, computational algorithms are developed to solve the problem of learning mixture of separable dictionaries in both batch and online settings. Numerical experiments are used to show the usefulness of the proposed model and the efficacy of the developed algorithms.

STARK: Structured Dictionary Learning Through Rank-one Tensor Recovery

In recent years, a class of dictionaries have been proposed for multidimensional (tensor) data representation that exploit the structure of tensor data by imposing a Kronecker structure on the dictionary underlying the data. In this work, a novel algorithm called "STARK" is provided to learn Kronecker structured dictionaries that can represent tensors of any order. By establishing that the Kronecker product of any number of matrices can be rearranged to form a rank-1 tensor, we show that Kronecker structure can be enforced on the dictionary by solving a rank-1 tensor recovery problem. Because rank-1 tensor recovery is a challenging nonconvex problem, we resort to solving a convex relaxation of this problem. Empirical experiments on synthetic and real data show promising results for our proposed algorithm.