Distributionally and Adversarially Robust Logistic Regression via Intersecting Wasserstein Balls

Empirical risk minimization often fails to provide robustness against adversarial attacks in test data, causing poor out-of-sample performance. Adversarially robust optimization (ARO) has thus emerged as the de facto standard for obtaining models that hedge against such attacks. However, while these models are robust against adversarial attacks, they tend to suffer severely from overfitting. To address this issue for logistic regression, we study the Wasserstein distributionally robust (DR) counterpart of ARO and show that this problem admits a tractable reformulation. Furthermore, we develop a framework to reduce the conservatism of this problem by utilizing an auxiliary dataset (e.g., synthetic, external, or out-of-domain data), whenever available, with instances independently sampled from a nonidentical but related ground truth. In particular, we intersect the ambiguity set of the DR problem with another Wasserstein ambiguity set that is built using the auxiliary dataset. We analyze the properties of the underlying optimization problem, develop efficient solution algorithms, and demonstrate that the proposed method consistently outperforms benchmark approaches on real-world datasets.

LETS-C: Leveraging Language Embedding for Time Series Classification

Recent advancements in language modeling have shown promising results when applied to time series data. In particular, fine-tuning pre-trained large language models (LLMs) for time series classification tasks has achieved state-of-the-art (SOTA) performance on standard benchmarks. However, these LLM-based models have a significant drawback due to the large model size, with the number of trainable parameters in the millions. In this paper, we propose an alternative approach to leveraging the success of language modeling in the time series domain. Instead of fine-tuning LLMs, we utilize a language embedding model to embed time series and then pair the embeddings with a simple classification head composed of convolutional neural networks (CNN) and multilayer perceptron (MLP). We conducted extensive experiments on well-established time series classification benchmark datasets. We demonstrated LETS-C not only outperforms the current SOTA in classification accuracy but also offers a lightweight solution, using only 14.5% of the trainable parameters on average compared to the SOTA model. Our findings suggest that leveraging language encoders to embed time series data, combined with a simple yet effective classification head, offers a promising direction for achieving high-performance time series classification while maintaining a lightweight model architecture.

HiddenTables & PyQTax: A Cooperative Game and Dataset For TableQA to Ensure Scale and Data Privacy Across a Myriad of Taxonomies

A myriad of different Large Language Models (LLMs) face a common challenge in contextually analyzing table question-answering tasks. These challenges are engendered from (1) finite context windows for large tables, (2) multi-faceted discrepancies amongst tokenization patterns against cell boundaries, and (3) various limitations stemming from data confidentiality in the process of using external models such as gpt-3.5-turbo. We propose a cooperative game dubbed "HiddenTables" as a potential resolution to this challenge. In essence, "HiddenTables" is played between the code-generating LLM "Solver" and the "Oracle" which evaluates the ability of the LLM agents to solve Table QA tasks. This game is based on natural language schemas and importantly, ensures the security of the underlying data. We provide evidential experiments on a diverse set of tables that demonstrate an LLM's collective inability to generalize and perform on complex queries, handle compositional dependencies, and align natural language to programmatic commands when concrete table schemas are provided. Unlike encoder-based models, we have pushed the boundaries of "HiddenTables" to not be limited by the number of rows - therefore we exhibit improved efficiency in prompt and completion tokens. Our infrastructure has spawned a new dataset "PyQTax" that spans across 116,671 question-table-answer triplets and provides additional fine-grained breakdowns & labels for varying question taxonomies. Therefore, in tandem with our academic contributions regarding LLMs' deficiency in TableQA tasks, "HiddenTables" is a tactile manifestation of how LLMs can interact with massive datasets while ensuring data security and minimizing generation costs.

Progressive Inference: Explaining Decoder-Only Sequence Classification Models Using Intermediate Predictions

This paper proposes Progressive Inference - a framework to compute input attributions to explain the predictions of decoder-only sequence classification models. Our work is based on the insight that the classification head of a decoder-only Transformer model can be used to make intermediate predictions by evaluating them at different points in the input sequence. Due to the causal attention mechanism, these intermediate predictions only depend on the tokens seen before the inference point, allowing us to obtain the model's prediction on a masked input sub-sequence, with negligible computational overheads. We develop two methods to provide sub-sequence level attributions using this insight. First, we propose Single Pass-Progressive Inference (SP-PI), which computes attributions by taking the difference between consecutive intermediate predictions. Second, we exploit a connection with Kernel SHAP to develop Multi Pass-Progressive Inference (MP-PI). MP-PI uses intermediate predictions from multiple masked versions of the input to compute higher quality attributions. Our studies on a diverse set of models trained on text classification tasks show that SP-PI and MP-PI provide significantly better attributions compared to prior work.

Counterfactual Metarules for Local and Global Recourse

We introduce T-CREx, a novel model-agnostic method for local and global counterfactual explanation (CE), which summarises recourse options for both individuals and groups in the form of human-readable rules. It leverages tree-based surrogate models to learn the counterfactual rules, alongside 'metarules' denoting their regions of optimality, providing both a global analysis of model behaviour and diverse recourse options for users. Experiments indicate that T-CREx achieves superior aggregate performance over existing rule-based baselines on a range of CE desiderata, while being orders of magnitude faster to run.

Deep Reinforcement Learning and Mean-Variance Strategies for Responsible Portfolio Optimization

Portfolio optimization involves determining the optimal allocation of portfolio assets in order to maximize a given investment objective. Traditionally, some form of mean-variance optimization is used with the aim of maximizing returns while minimizing risk, however, more recently, deep reinforcement learning formulations have been explored. Increasingly, investors have demonstrated an interest in incorporating ESG objectives when making investment decisions, and modifications to the classical mean-variance optimization framework have been developed. In this work, we study the use of deep reinforcement learning for responsible portfolio optimization, by incorporating ESG states and objectives, and provide comparisons against modified mean-variance approaches. Our results show that deep reinforcement learning policies can provide competitive performance against mean-variance approaches for responsible portfolio allocation across additive and multiplicative utility functions of financial and ESG responsibility objectives.

Six Levels of Privacy: A Framework for Financial Synthetic Data

Synthetic Data is increasingly important in financial applications. In addition to the benefits it provides, such as improved financial modeling and better testing procedures, it poses privacy risks as well. Such data may arise from client information, business information, or other proprietary sources that must be protected. Even though the process by which Synthetic Data is generated serves to obscure the original data to some degree, the extent to which privacy is preserved is hard to assess. Accordingly, we introduce a hierarchy of ``levels'' of privacy that are useful for categorizing Synthetic Data generation methods and the progressively improved protections they offer. While the six levels were devised in the context of financial applications, they may also be appropriate for other industries as well. Our paper includes: A brief overview of Financial Synthetic Data, how it can be used, how its value can be assessed, privacy risks, and privacy attacks. We close with details of the ``Six Levels'' that include defenses against those attacks.

Intelligent Execution through Plan Analysis

Intelligent robots need to generate and execute plans. In order to deal with the complexity of real environments, planning makes some assumptions about the world. When executing plans, the assumptions are usually not met. Most works have focused on the negative impact of this fact and the use of replanning after execution failures. Instead, we focus on the positive impact, or opportunities to find better plans. When planning, the proposed technique finds and stores those opportunities. Later, during execution, the monitoring system can use them to focus perception and repair the plan, instead of replanning from scratch. Experiments in several paradigmatic robotic tasks show how the approach outperforms standard replanning strategies.

From Pixels to Predictions: Spectrogram and Vision Transformer for Better Time Series Forecasting

Time series forecasting plays a crucial role in decision-making across various domains, but it presents significant challenges. Recent studies have explored image-driven approaches using computer vision models to address these challenges, often employing lineplots as the visual representation of time series data. In this paper, we propose a novel approach that uses time-frequency spectrograms as the visual representation of time series data. We introduce the use of a vision transformer for multimodal learning, showcasing the advantages of our approach across diverse datasets from different domains. To evaluate its effectiveness, we compare our method against statistical baselines (EMA and ARIMA), a state-of-the-art deep learning-based approach (DeepAR), other visual representations of time series data (lineplot images), and an ablation study on using only the time series as input. Our experiments demonstrate the benefits of utilizing spectrograms as a visual representation for time series data, along with the advantages of employing a vision transformer for simultaneous learning in both the time and frequency domains.

REFRESH: Responsible and Efficient Feature Reselection Guided by SHAP Values

Feature selection is a crucial step in building machine learning models. This process is often achieved with accuracy as an objective, and can be cumbersome and computationally expensive for large-scale datasets. Several additional model performance characteristics such as fairness and robustness are of importance for model development. As regulations are driving the need for more trustworthy models, deployed models need to be corrected for model characteristics associated with responsible artificial intelligence. When feature selection is done with respect to one model performance characteristic (eg. accuracy), feature selection with secondary model performance characteristics (eg. fairness and robustness) as objectives would require going through the computationally expensive selection process from scratch. In this paper, we introduce the problem of feature \emph{reselection}, so that features can be selected with respect to secondary model performance characteristics efficiently even after a feature selection process has been done with respect to a primary objective. To address this problem, we propose REFRESH, a method to reselect features so that additional constraints that are desirable towards model performance can be achieved without having to train several new models. REFRESH's underlying algorithm is a novel technique using SHAP values and correlation analysis that can approximate for the predictions of a model without having to train these models. Empirical evaluations on three datasets, including a large-scale loan defaulting dataset show that REFRESH can help find alternate models with better model characteristics efficiently. We also discuss the need for reselection and REFRESH based on regulation desiderata.