ShapShift: Explaining Model Prediction Shifts with Subgroup Conditional Shapley Values

Changes in input distribution can induce shifts in the average predictions of machine learning models. Such prediction shifts may impact downstream business outcomes (e.g. a bank's loan approval rate), so understanding their causes can be crucial. We propose \ours{}: a Shapley value method for attributing prediction shifts to changes in the conditional probabilities of interpretable subgroups of data, where these subgroups are defined by the structure of decision trees. We initially apply this method to single decision trees, providing exact explanations based on conditional probability changes at split nodes. Next, we extend it to tree ensembles by selecting the most explanatory tree and accounting for residual effects. Finally, we propose a model-agnostic variant using surrogate trees grown with a novel objective function, allowing application to models like neural networks. While exact computation can be intensive, approximation techniques enable practical application. We show that \ours{} provides simple, faithful, and near-complete explanations of prediction shifts across model classes, aiding model monitoring in dynamic environments.

When Do We Need LLMs? A Diagnostic for Language-Driven Bandits

We study Contextual Multi-Armed Bandits (CMABs) for non-episodic sequential decision making problems where the context includes both textual and numerical information (e.g., recommendation systems, dynamic portfolio adjustments, offer selection; all frequent problems in finance). While Large Language Models (LLMs) are increasingly applied to these settings, utilizing LLMs for reasoning at every decision step is computationally expensive and uncertainty estimates are difficult to obtain. To address this, we introduce LLMP-UCB, a bandit algorithm that derives uncertainty estimates from LLMs via repeated inference. However, our experiments demonstrate that lightweight numerical bandits operating on text embeddings (dense or Matryoshka) match or exceed the accuracy of LLM-based solutions at a fraction of their cost. We further show that embedding dimensionality is a practical lever on the exploration-exploitation balance, enabling cost--performance tradeoffs without prompt complexity. Finally, to guide practitioners, we propose a geometric diagnostic based on the arms' embedding to decide when to use LLM-driven reasoning versus a lightweight numerical bandit. Our results provide a principled deployment framework for cost-effective, uncertainty-aware decision systems with broad applicability across AI use cases in financial services.

Dynamic Linear Coregionalization for Realistic Synthetic Multivariate Time Series

Synthetic data is essential for training foundation models for time series (FMTS), but most generators assume static correlations, and are typically missing realistic inter-channel dependencies. We introduce DynLMC, a Dynamic Linear Model of Coregionalization, that incorporates time-varying, regime-switching correlations and cross-channel lag structures. Our approach produces synthetic multivariate time series with correlation dynamics that closely resemble real data. Fine-tuning three foundational models on DynLMC-generated data yields consistent zero-shot forecasting improvements across nine benchmarks. Our results demonstrate that modeling dynamic inter-channel correlations enhances FMTS transferability, highlighting the importance of data-centric pretraining.

TradeFM: A Generative Foundation Model for Trade-flow and Market Microstructure

Foundation models have transformed domains from language to genomics by learning general-purpose representations from large-scale, heterogeneous data. We introduce TradeFM, a 524M-parameter generative Transformer that brings this paradigm to market microstructure, learning directly from billions of trade events across >9K equities. To enable cross-asset generalization, we develop scale-invariant features and a universal tokenization scheme that map the heterogeneous, multi-modal event stream of order flow into a unified discrete sequence -- eliminating asset-specific calibration. Integrated with a deterministic market simulator, TradeFM-generated rollouts reproduce key stylized facts of financial returns, including heavy tails, volatility clustering, and absence of return autocorrelation. Quantitatively, TradeFM achieves 2-3x lower distributional error than Compound Hawkes baselines and generalizes zero-shot to geographically out-of-distribution APAC markets with moderate perplexity degradation. Together, these results suggest that scale-invariant trade representations capture transferable structure in market microstructure, opening a path toward synthetic data generation, stress testing, and learning-based trading agents.

Distill and Align Decomposition for Enhanced Claim Verification

Complex claim verification requires decomposing sentences into verifiable subclaims, yet existing methods struggle to align decomposition quality with verification performance. We propose a reinforcement learning (RL) approach that jointly optimizes decomposition quality and verifier alignment using Group Relative Policy Optimization (GRPO). Our method integrates: (i) structured sequential reasoning; (ii) supervised finetuning on teacher-distilled exemplars; and (iii) a multi-objective reward balancing format compliance, verifier alignment, and decomposition quality. Across six evaluation settings, our trained 8B decomposer improves downstream verification performance to (71.75%) macro-F1, outperforming prompt-based approaches ((+1.99), (+6.24)) and existing RL methods ((+5.84)). Human evaluation confirms the high quality of the generated subclaims. Our framework enables smaller language models to achieve state-of-the-art claim verification by jointly optimising for verification accuracy and decomposition quality.

What Makes a Good Query? Measuring the Impact of Human-Confusing Linguistic Features on LLM Performance

Large Language Model (LLM) hallucinations are usually treated as defects of the model or its decoding strategy. Drawing on classical linguistics, we argue that a query's form can also shape a listener's (and model's) response. We operationalize this insight by constructing a 22-dimension query feature vector covering clause complexity, lexical rarity, and anaphora, negation, answerability, and intention grounding, all known to affect human comprehension. Using 369,837 real-world queries, we ask: Are there certain types of queries that make hallucination more likely? A large-scale analysis reveals a consistent "risk landscape": certain features such as deep clause nesting and underspecification align with higher hallucination propensity. In contrast, clear intention grounding and answerability align with lower hallucination rates. Others, including domain specificity, show mixed, dataset- and model-dependent effects. Thus, these findings establish an empirically observable query-feature representation correlated with hallucination risk, paving the way for guided query rewriting and future intervention studies.

No One Size Fits All: QueryBandits for Hallucination Mitigation

Advanced reasoning capabilities in Large Language Models (LLMs) have led to more frequent hallucinations; yet most mitigation work focuses on open-source models for post-hoc detection and parameter editing. The dearth of studies focusing on hallucinations in closed-source models is especially concerning, as they constitute the vast majority of models in institutional deployments. We introduce QueryBandits, a model-agnostic contextual bandit framework that adaptively learns online to select the optimal query-rewrite strategy by leveraging an empirically validated and calibrated reward function. Across 16 QA scenarios, our top QueryBandit (Thompson Sampling) achieves an 87.5% win rate over a No-Rewrite baseline and outperforms zero-shot static policies (e.g., Paraphrase or Expand) by 42.6% and 60.3%, respectively. Moreover, all contextual bandits outperform vanilla bandits across all datasets, with higher feature variance coinciding with greater variance in arm selection. This substantiates our finding that there is no single rewrite policy optimal for all queries. We also discover that certain static policies incur higher cumulative regret than No-Rewrite, indicating that an inflexible query-rewriting policy can worsen hallucinations. Thus, learning an online policy over semantic features with QueryBandits can shift model behavior purely through forward-pass mechanisms, enabling its use with closed-source models and bypassing the need for retraining or gradient-based adaptation.

ExStrucTiny: A Benchmark for Schema-Variable Structured Information Extraction from Document Images

Enterprise documents, such as forms and reports, embed critical information for downstream applications like data archiving, automated workflows, and analytics. Although generalist Vision Language Models (VLMs) perform well on established document understanding benchmarks, their ability to conduct holistic, fine-grained structured extraction across diverse document types and flexible schemas is not well studied. Existing Key Entity Extraction (KEE), Relation Extraction (RE), and Visual Question Answering (VQA) datasets are limited by narrow entity ontologies, simple queries, or homogeneous document types, often overlooking the need for adaptable and structured extraction. To address these gaps, we introduce ExStrucTiny, a new benchmark dataset for structured Information Extraction (IE) from document images, unifying aspects of KEE, RE, and VQA. Built through a novel pipeline combining manual and synthetic human-validated samples, ExStrucTiny covers more varied document types and extraction scenarios. We analyze open and closed VLMs on this benchmark, highlighting challenges such as schema adaptation, query under-specification, and answer localization. We hope our work provides a bedrock for improving generalist models for structured IE in documents.

Beyond Manual Planning: Seating Allocation for Large Organizations

We introduce the Hierarchical Seating Allocation Problem (HSAP) which addresses the optimal assignment of hierarchically structured organizational teams to physical seating arrangements on a floor plan. This problem is driven by the necessity for large organizations with large hierarchies to ensure that teams with close hierarchical relationships are seated in proximity to one another, such as ensuring a research group occupies a contiguous area. Currently, this problem is managed manually leading to infrequent and suboptimal replanning efforts. To alleviate this manual process, we propose an end-to-end framework to solve the HSAP. A scalable approach to calculate the distance between any pair of seats using a probabilistic road map (PRM) and rapidly-exploring random trees (RRT) which is combined with heuristic search and dynamic programming approach to solve the HSAP using integer programming. We demonstrate our approach under different sized instances by evaluating the PRM framework and subsequent allocations both quantitatively and qualitatively.

Perturb Your Data: Paraphrase-Guided Training Data Watermarking

Training data detection is critical for enforcing copyright and data licensing, as Large Language Models (LLM) are trained on massive text corpora scraped from the internet. We present SPECTRA, a watermarking approach that makes training data reliably detectable even when it comprises less than 0.001% of the training corpus. SPECTRA works by paraphrasing text using an LLM and assigning a score based on how likely each paraphrase is, according to a separate scoring model. A paraphrase is chosen so that its score closely matches that of the original text, to avoid introducing any distribution shifts. To test whether a suspect model has been trained on the watermarked data, we compare its token probabilities against those of the scoring model. We demonstrate that SPECTRA achieves a consistent p-value gap of over nine orders of magnitude when detecting data used for training versus data not used for training, which is greater than all baselines tested. SPECTRA equips data owners with a scalable, deploy-before-release watermark that survives even large-scale LLM training.