Synthetic Data Applications in Finance

Synthetic data has made tremendous strides in various commercial settings including finance, healthcare, and virtual reality. We present a broad overview of prototypical applications of synthetic data in the financial sector and in particular provide richer details for a few select ones. These cover a wide variety of data modalities including tabular, time-series, event-series, and unstructured arising from both markets and retail financial applications. Since finance is a highly regulated industry, synthetic data is a potential approach for dealing with issues related to privacy, fairness, and explainability. Various metrics are utilized in evaluating the quality and effectiveness of our approaches in these applications. We conclude with open directions in synthetic data in the context of the financial domain.

Multi-Modal Financial Time-Series Retrieval Through Latent Space Projections

Financial firms commonly process and store billions of time-series data, generated continuously and at a high frequency. To support efficient data storage and retrieval, specialized time-series databases and systems have emerged. These databases support indexing and querying of time-series by a constrained Structured Query Language(SQL)-like format to enable queries like "Stocks with monthly price returns greater than 5%", and expressed in rigid formats. However, such queries do not capture the intrinsic complexity of high dimensional time-series data, which can often be better described by images or language (e.g., "A stock in low volatility regime"). Moreover, the required storage, computational time, and retrieval complexity to search in the time-series space are often non-trivial. In this paper, we propose and demonstrate a framework to store multi-modal data for financial time-series in a lower-dimensional latent space using deep encoders, such that the latent space projections capture not only the time series trends but also other desirable information or properties of the financial time-series data (such as price volatility). Moreover, our approach allows user-friendly query interfaces, enabling natural language text or sketches of time-series, for which we have developed intuitive interfaces. We demonstrate the advantages of our method in terms of computational efficiency and accuracy on real historical data as well as synthetic data, and highlight the utility of latent-space projections in the storage and retrieval of financial time-series data with intuitive query modalities.

SafeAR: Towards Safer Algorithmic Recourse by Risk-Aware Policies

With the growing use of machine learning (ML) models in critical domains such as finance and healthcare, the need to offer recourse for those adversely affected by the decisions of ML models has become more important; individuals ought to be provided with recommendations on actions to take for improving their situation and thus receive a favorable decision. Prior work on sequential algorithmic recourse -- which recommends a series of changes -- focuses on action feasibility and uses the proximity of feature changes to determine action costs. However, the uncertainties of feature changes and the risk of higher than average costs in recourse have not been considered. It is undesirable if a recourse could (with some probability) result in a worse situation from which recovery requires an extremely high cost. It is essential to incorporate risks when computing and evaluating recourse. We call the recourse computed with such risk considerations as Safer Algorithmic Recourse (SafeAR). The objective is to empower people to choose a recourse based on their risk tolerance. In this work, we discuss and show how existing recourse desiderata can fail to capture the risk of higher costs. We present a method to compute recourse policies that consider variability in cost and connect algorithmic recourse literature with risk-sensitive reinforcement learning. We also adopt measures ``Value at Risk'' and ``Conditional Value at Risk'' from the financial literature to summarize risk concisely. We apply our method to two real-world datasets and compare policies with different levels of risk-aversion using risk measures and recourse desiderata (sparsity and proximity).

Methods and Mechanisms for Interactive Novelty Handling in Adversarial Environments

Learning to detect, characterize and accommodate novelties is a challenge that agents operating in open-world domains need to address to be able to guarantee satisfactory task performance. Certain novelties (e.g., changes in environment dynamics) can interfere with the performance or prevent agents from accomplishing task goals altogether. In this paper, we introduce general methods and architectural mechanisms for detecting and characterizing different types of novelties, and for building an appropriate adaptive model to accommodate them utilizing logical representations and reasoning methods. We demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed methods in evaluations performed by a third party in the adversarial multi-agent board game Monopoly. The results show high novelty detection and accommodation rates across a variety of novelty types, including changes to the rules of the game, as well as changes to the agent's action capabilities.

pyRDDLGym: From RDDL to Gym Environments

We present pyRDDLGym, a Python framework for auto-generation of OpenAI Gym environments from RDDL declerative description. The discrete time step evolution of variables in RDDL is described by conditional probability functions, which fits naturally into the Gym step scheme. Furthermore, since RDDL is a lifted description, the modification and scaling up of environments to support multiple entities and different configurations becomes trivial rather than a tedious process prone to errors. We hope that pyRDDLGym will serve as a new wind in the reinforcement learning community by enabling easy and rapid development of benchmarks due to the unique expressive power of RDDL. By providing explicit access to the model in the RDDL description, pyRDDLGym can also facilitate research on hybrid approaches for learning from interaction while leveraging model knowledge. We present the design and built-in examples of pyRDDLGym, and the additions made to the RDDL language that were incorporated into the framework.

Synthesizing Policies That Account For Human Execution Errors Caused By State-Aliasing In Markov Decision Processes

When humans are given a policy to execute, there can be policy execution errors and deviations in execution if there is uncertainty in identifying a state. So an algorithm that computes a policy for a human to execute ought to consider these effects in its computations. An optimal MDP policy that is poorly executed (because of a human agent) maybe much worse than another policy that is executed with fewer errors. In this paper, we consider the problems of erroneous execution and execution delay when computing policies for a human agent that would act in a setting modeled by a Markov Decision Process. We present a framework to model the likelihood of policy execution errors and likelihood of non-policy actions like inaction (delays) due to state uncertainty. This is followed by a hill climbing algorithm to search for good policies that account for these errors. We then use the best policy found by hill climbing with a branch and bound algorithm to find the optimal policy. We show experimental results in a Gridworld domain and analyze the performance of the two algorithms. We also present human studies that verify if our assumptions on policy execution by humans under state-aliasing are reasonable.

Integrating Planning, Execution and Monitoring in the presence of Open World Novelties: Case Study of an Open World Monopoly Solver

The game of monopoly is an adversarial multi-agent domain where there is no fixed goal other than to be the last player solvent, There are useful subgoals like monopolizing sets of properties, and developing them. There is also a lot of randomness from dice rolls, card-draws, and adversaries' strategies. This unpredictability is made worse when unknown novelties are added during gameplay. Given these challenges, Monopoly was one of the test beds chosen for the DARPA-SAILON program which aims to create agents that can detect and accommodate novelties. To handle the game complexities, we developed an agent that eschews complete plans, and adapts it's policy online as the game evolves. In the most recent independent evaluation in the SAILON program, our agent was the best performing agent on most measures. We herein present our approach and results.

Goal recognition via model-based and model-free techniques

Goal recognition aims at predicting human intentions from a trace of observations. This ability allows people or organizations to anticipate future actions and intervene in a positive (collaborative) or negative (adversarial) way. Goal recognition has been successfully used in many domains, but it has been seldom been used by financial institutions. We claim the techniques are ripe for its wide use in finance-related tasks. The main two approaches to perform goal recognition are model-based (planning-based) and model-free (learning-based). In this paper, we adapt state-of-the-art learning techniques to goal recognition, and compare model-based and model-free approaches in different domains. We analyze the experimental data to understand the trade-offs of using both types of methods. The experiments show that planning-based approaches are ready for some goal-recognition finance tasks.