Explaining Probabilistic Models with Distributional Values

A large branch of explainable machine learning is grounded in cooperative game theory. However, research indicates that game-theoretic explanations may mislead or be hard to interpret. We argue that often there is a critical mismatch between what one wishes to explain (e.g. the output of a classifier) and what current methods such as SHAP explain (e.g. the scalar probability of a class). This paper addresses such gap for probabilistic models by generalising cooperative games and value operators. We introduce the distributional values, random variables that track changes in the model output (e.g. flipping of the predicted class) and derive their analytic expressions for games with Gaussian, Bernoulli and Categorical payoffs. We further establish several characterising properties, and show that our framework provides fine-grained and insightful explanations with case studies on vision and language models.

Optimizing Hyperparameters with Conformal Quantile Regression

Many state-of-the-art hyperparameter optimization (HPO) algorithms rely on model-based optimizers that learn surrogate models of the target function to guide the search. Gaussian processes are the de facto surrogate model due to their ability to capture uncertainty but they make strong assumptions about the observation noise, which might not be warranted in practice. In this work, we propose to leverage conformalized quantile regression which makes minimal assumptions about the observation noise and, as a result, models the target function in a more realistic and robust fashion which translates to quicker HPO convergence on empirical benchmarks. To apply our method in a multi-fidelity setting, we propose a simple, yet effective, technique that aggregates observed results across different resource levels and outperforms conventional methods across many empirical tasks.

Fortuna: A Library for Uncertainty Quantification in Deep Learning

We present Fortuna, an open-source library for uncertainty quantification in deep learning. Fortuna supports a range of calibration techniques, such as conformal prediction that can be applied to any trained neural network to generate reliable uncertainty estimates, and scalable Bayesian inference methods that can be applied to Flax-based deep neural networks trained from scratch for improved uncertainty quantification and accuracy. By providing a coherent framework for advanced uncertainty quantification methods, Fortuna simplifies the process of benchmarking and helps practitioners build robust AI systems.

Meta-Forecasting by combining Global Deep Representations with Local Adaptation

While classical time series forecasting considers individual time series in isolation, recent advances based on deep learning showed that jointly learning from a large pool of related time series can boost the forecasting accuracy. However, the accuracy of these methods suffers greatly when modeling out-of-sample time series, significantly limiting their applicability compared to classical forecasting methods. To bridge this gap, we adopt a meta-learning view of the time series forecasting problem. We introduce a novel forecasting method, called Meta Global-Local Auto-Regression (Meta-GLAR), that adapts to each time series by learning in closed-form the mapping from the representations produced by a recurrent neural network (RNN) to one-step-ahead forecasts. Crucially, the parameters ofthe RNN are learned across multiple time series by backpropagating through the closed-form adaptation mechanism. In our extensive empirical evaluation we show that our method is competitive with the state-of-the-art in out-of-sample forecasting accuracy reported in earlier work.

Meta-Forecasting by combining Global DeepRepresentations with Local Adaptation

While classical time series forecasting considers individual time series in isolation, recent advances based on deep learning showed that jointly learning from a large pool of related time series can boost the forecasting accuracy. However, the accuracy of these methods suffers greatly when modeling out-of-sample time series, significantly limiting their applicability compared to classical forecasting methods. To bridge this gap, we adopt a meta-learning view of the time series forecasting problem. We introduce a novel forecasting method, called Meta Global-Local Auto-Regression (Meta-GLAR), that adapts to each time series by learning in closed-form the mapping from the representations produced by a recurrent neural network (RNN) to one-step-ahead forecasts. Crucially, the parameters ofthe RNN are learned across multiple time series by backpropagating through the closed-form adaptation mechanism. In our extensive empirical evaluation we show that our method is competitive with the state-of-the-art in out-of-sample forecasting accuracy reported in earlier work.

A Nonmyopic Approach to Cost-Constrained Bayesian Optimization

Bayesian optimization (BO) is a popular method for optimizing expensive-to-evaluate black-box functions. BO budgets are typically given in iterations, which implicitly assumes each evaluation has the same cost. In fact, in many BO applications, evaluation costs vary significantly in different regions of the search space. In hyperparameter optimization, the time spent on neural network training increases with layer size; in clinical trials, the monetary cost of drug compounds vary; and in optimal control, control actions have differing complexities. Cost-constrained BO measures convergence with alternative cost metrics such as time, money, or energy, for which the sample efficiency of standard BO methods is ill-suited. For cost-constrained BO, cost efficiency is far more important than sample efficiency. In this paper, we formulate cost-constrained BO as a constrained Markov decision process (CMDP), and develop an efficient rollout approximation to the optimal CMDP policy that takes both the cost and future iterations into account. We validate our method on a collection of hyperparameter optimization problems as well as a sensor set selection application.

Overfitting in Bayesian Optimization: an empirical study and early-stopping solution

Bayesian Optimization (BO) is a successful methodology to tune the hyperparameters of machine learning algorithms. The user defines a metric of interest, such as the validation error, and BO finds the optimal hyperparameters that minimize it. However, the metric improvements on the validation set may not translate to the test set, especially on small datasets. In other words, BO can overfit. While cross-validation mitigates this, it comes with high computational cost. In this paper, we carry out the first systematic investigation of overfitting in BO and demonstrate that this is a serious yet often overlooked concern in practice. We propose the first problem-adaptive and interpretable criterion to early stop BO, reducing overfitting while mitigating the cost of cross-validation. Experimental results on real-world hyperparameter optimization tasks show that our approach can substantially reduce compute time with little to no loss of test accuracy,demonstrating a clear practical advantage over existing techniques.

BORE: Bayesian Optimization by Density-Ratio Estimation

Bayesian optimization (BO) is among the most effective and widely-used blackbox optimization methods. BO proposes solutions according to an explore-exploit trade-off criterion encoded in an acquisition function, many of which are computed from the posterior predictive of a probabilistic surrogate model. Prevalent among these is the expected improvement (EI) function. The need to ensure analytical tractability of the predictive often poses limitations that can hinder the efficiency and applicability of BO. In this paper, we cast the computation of EI as a binary classification problem, building on the link between class-probability estimation and density-ratio estimation, and the lesser-known link between density-ratios and EI. By circumventing the tractability constraints, this reformulation provides numerous advantages, not least in terms of expressiveness, versatility, and scalability.

Amazon SageMaker Autopilot: a white box AutoML solution at scale

AutoML systems provide a black-box solution to machine learning problems by selecting the right way of processing features, choosing an algorithm and tuning the hyperparameters of the entire pipeline. Although these systems perform well on many datasets, there is still a non-negligible number of datasets for which the one-shot solution produced by each particular system would provide sub-par performance. In this paper, we present Amazon SageMaker Autopilot: a fully managed system providing an automated ML solution that can be modified when needed. Given a tabular dataset and the target column name, Autopilot identifies the problem type, analyzes the data and produces a diverse set of complete ML pipelines including feature preprocessing and ML algorithms, which are tuned to generate a leaderboard of candidate models. In the scenario where the performance is not satisfactory, a data scientist is able to view and edit the proposed ML pipelines in order to infuse their expertise and business knowledge without having to revert to a fully manual solution. This paper describes the different components of Autopilot, emphasizing the infrastructure choices that allow scalability, high quality models, editable ML pipelines, consumption of artifacts of offline meta-learning, and a convenient integration with the entire SageMaker suite allowing these trained models to be used in a production setting.

Amazon SageMaker Automatic Model Tuning: Scalable Black-box Optimization

Tuning complex machine learning systems is challenging. Machine learning models typically expose a set of hyperparameters, be it regularization, architecture, or optimization parameters, whose careful tuning is critical to achieve good performance. To democratize access to such systems, it is essential to automate this tuning process. This paper presents Amazon SageMaker Automatic Model Tuning (AMT), a fully managed system for black-box optimization at scale. AMT finds the best version of a machine learning model by repeatedly training it with different hyperparameter configurations. It leverages either random search or Bayesian optimization to choose the hyperparameter values resulting in the best-performing model, as measured by the metric chosen by the user. AMT can be used with built-in algorithms, custom algorithms, and Amazon SageMaker pre-built containers for machine learning frameworks. We discuss the core functionality, system architecture and our design principles. We also describe some more advanced features provided by AMT, such as automated early stopping and warm-starting, demonstrating their benefits in experiments.