Fortuna: A Library for Uncertainty Quantification in Deep Learning

We present Fortuna, an open-source library for uncertainty quantification in deep learning. Fortuna supports a range of calibration techniques, such as conformal prediction that can be applied to any trained neural network to generate reliable uncertainty estimates, and scalable Bayesian inference methods that can be applied to Flax-based deep neural networks trained from scratch for improved uncertainty quantification and accuracy. By providing a coherent framework for advanced uncertainty quantification methods, Fortuna simplifies the process of benchmarking and helps practitioners build robust AI systems.

Uncertainty Calibration in Bayesian Neural Networks via Distance-Aware Priors

As we move away from the data, the predictive uncertainty should increase, since a great variety of explanations are consistent with the little available information. We introduce Distance-Aware Prior (DAP) calibration, a method to correct overconfidence of Bayesian deep learning models outside of the training domain. We define DAPs as prior distributions over the model parameters that depend on the inputs through a measure of their distance from the training set. DAP calibration is agnostic to the posterior inference method, and it can be performed as a post-processing step. We demonstrate its effectiveness against several baselines in a variety of classification and regression problems, including benchmarks designed to test the quality of predictive distributions away from the data.

Ranking Micro-Influencers: a Novel Multi-Task Learning and Interpretable Framework

With the rise in use of social media to promote branded products, the demand for effective influencer marketing has increased. Brands are looking for improved ways to identify valuable influencers among a vast catalogue; this is even more challenging with "micro-influencers", which are more affordable than mainstream ones but difficult to discover. In this paper, we propose a novel multi-task learning framework to improve the state of the art in micro-influencer ranking based on multimedia content. Moreover, since the visual congruence between a brand and influencer has been shown to be good measure of compatibility, we provide an effective visual method for interpreting our models' decisions, which can also be used to inform brands' media strategies. We compare with the current state-of-the-art on a recently constructed public dataset and we show significant improvement both in terms of accuracy and model complexity. The techniques for ranking and interpretation presented in this work can be generalised to arbitrary multimedia ranking tasks that have datasets with a similar structure.

Deep Learning for Time Series Forecasting: The Electric Load Case

Management and efficient operations in critical infrastructure such as Smart Grids take huge advantage of accurate power load forecasting which, due to its nonlinear nature, remains a challenging task. Recently, deep learning has emerged in the machine learning field achieving impressive performance in a vast range of tasks, from image classification to machine translation. Applications of deep learning models to the electric load forecasting problem are gaining interest among researchers as well as the industry, but a comprehensive and sound comparison among different architectures is not yet available in the literature. This work aims at filling the gap by reviewing and experimentally evaluating on two real-world datasets the most recent trends in electric load forecasting, by contrasting deep learning architectures on short term forecast (one day ahead prediction). Specifically, we focus on feedforward and recurrent neural networks, sequence to sequence models and temporal convolutional neural networks along with architectural variants, which are known in the signal processing community but are novel to the load forecasting one.