Bridging Remote Sensors with Multisensor Geospatial Foundation Models

In the realm of geospatial analysis, the diversity of remote sensors, encompassing both optical and microwave technologies, offers a wealth of distinct observational capabilities. Recognizing this, we present msGFM, a multisensor geospatial foundation model that effectively unifies data from four key sensor modalities. This integration spans an expansive dataset of two million multisensor images. msGFM is uniquely adept at handling both paired and unpaired sensor data. For data originating from identical geolocations, our model employs an innovative cross-sensor pretraining approach in masked image modeling, enabling the synthesis of joint representations from diverse sensors. msGFM, incorporating four remote sensors, upholds strong performance, forming a comprehensive model adaptable to various sensor types. msGFM has demonstrated enhanced proficiency in a range of both single-sensor and multisensor downstream tasks. These include scene classification, segmentation, cloud removal, and pan-sharpening. A key discovery of our research is that representations derived from natural images are not always compatible with the distinct characteristics of geospatial remote sensors, underscoring the limitations of existing representations in this field. Our work can serve as a guide for developing multisensor geospatial pretraining models, paving the way for more advanced geospatial capabilities.

Double machine learning for causal hybrid modeling -- applications in the Earth sciences

Hybrid modeling integrates machine learning with scientific knowledge with the goal of enhancing interpretability, generalization, and adherence to natural laws. Nevertheless, equifinality and regularization biases pose challenges in hybrid modeling to achieve these purposes. This paper introduces a novel approach to estimating hybrid models via a causal inference framework, specifically employing Double Machine Learning (DML) to estimate causal effects. We showcase its use for the Earth sciences on two problems related to carbon dioxide fluxes. In the $Q_{10}$ model, we demonstrate that DML-based hybrid modeling is superior in estimating causal parameters over end-to-end deep neural network (DNN) approaches, proving efficiency, robustness to bias from regularization methods, and circumventing equifinality. Our approach, applied to carbon flux partitioning, exhibits flexibility in accommodating heterogeneous causal effects. The study emphasizes the necessity of explicitly defining causal graphs and relationships, advocating for this as a general best practice. We encourage the continued exploration of causality in hybrid models for more interpretable and trustworthy results in knowledge-guided machine learning.

Forecasting localized weather impacts on vegetation as seen from space with meteo-guided video prediction

We present a novel approach for modeling vegetation response to weather in Europe as measured by the Sentinel 2 satellite. Existing satellite imagery forecasting approaches focus on photorealistic quality of the multispectral images, while derived vegetation dynamics have not yet received as much attention. We leverage both spatial and temporal context by extending state-of-the-art video prediction methods with weather guidance. We extend the EarthNet2021 dataset to be suitable for vegetation modeling by introducing a learned cloud mask and an appropriate evaluation scheme. Qualitative and quantitative experiments demonstrate superior performance of our approach over a wide variety of baseline methods, including leading approaches to satellite imagery forecasting. Additionally, we show how our modeled vegetation dynamics can be leveraged in a downstream task: inferring gross primary productivity for carbon monitoring. To the best of our knowledge, this work presents the first models for continental-scale vegetation modeling at fine resolution able to capture anomalies beyond the seasonal cycle, thereby paving the way for predictive assessments of vegetation status.

Learning to forecast vegetation greenness at fine resolution over Africa with ConvLSTMs

Forecasting the state of vegetation in response to climate and weather events is a major challenge. Its implementation will prove crucial in predicting crop yield, forest damage, or more generally the impact on ecosystems services relevant for socio-economic functioning, which if absent can lead to humanitarian disasters. Vegetation status depends on weather and environmental conditions that modulate complex ecological processes taking place at several timescales. Interactions between vegetation and different environmental drivers express responses at instantaneous but also time-lagged effects, often showing an emerging spatial context at landscape and regional scales. We formulate the land surface forecasting task as a strongly guided video prediction task where the objective is to forecast the vegetation developing at very fine resolution using topography and weather variables to guide the prediction. We use a Convolutional LSTM (ConvLSTM) architecture to address this task and predict changes in the vegetation state in Africa using Sentinel-2 satellite NDVI, having ERA5 weather reanalysis, SMAP satellite measurements, and topography (DEM of SRTMv4.1) as variables to guide the prediction. Ours results highlight how ConvLSTM models can not only forecast the seasonal evolution of NDVI at high resolution, but also the differential impacts of weather anomalies over the baselines. The model is able to predict different vegetation types, even those with very high NDVI variability during target length, which is promising to support anticipatory actions in the context of drought-related disasters.

On the Generalization of Agricultural Drought Classification from Climate Data

Climate change is expected to increase the likelihood of drought events, with severe implications for food security. Unlike other natural disasters, droughts have a slow onset and depend on various external factors, making drought detection in climate data difficult. In contrast to existing works that rely on simple relative drought indices as ground-truth data, we build upon soil moisture index (SMI) obtained from a hydrological model. This index is directly related to insufficiently available water to vegetation. Given ERA5-Land climate input data of six months with land use information from MODIS satellite observation, we compare different models with and without sequential inductive bias in classifying droughts based on SMI. We use PR-AUC as the evaluation measure to account for the class imbalance and obtain promising results despite a challenging time-based split. We further show in an ablation study that the models retain their predictive capabilities given input data of coarser resolutions, as frequently encountered in climate models.

EarthNet2021: A large-scale dataset and challenge for Earth surface forecasting as a guided video prediction task

Satellite images are snapshots of the Earth surface. We propose to forecast them. We frame Earth surface forecasting as the task of predicting satellite imagery conditioned on future weather. EarthNet2021 is a large dataset suitable for training deep neural networks on the task. It contains Sentinel 2 satellite imagery at 20m resolution, matching topography and mesoscale (1.28km) meteorological variables packaged into 32000 samples. Additionally we frame EarthNet2021 as a challenge allowing for model intercomparison. Resulting forecasts will greatly improve (>x50) over the spatial resolution found in numerical models. This allows localized impacts from extreme weather to be predicted, thus supporting downstream applications such as crop yield prediction, forest health assessments or biodiversity monitoring. Find data, code, and how to participate at www.earthnet.tech

EarthNet2021: A novel large-scale dataset and challenge for forecasting localized climate impacts

Climate change is global, yet its concrete impacts can strongly vary between different locations in the same region. Seasonal weather forecasts currently operate at the mesoscale (> 1 km). For more targeted mitigation and adaptation, modelling impacts to < 100 m is needed. Yet, the relationship between driving variables and Earth's surface at such local scales remains unresolved by current physical models. Large Earth observation datasets now enable us to create machine learning models capable of translating coarse weather information into high-resolution Earth surface forecasts. Here, we define high-resolution Earth surface forecasting as video prediction of satellite imagery conditional on mesoscale weather forecasts. Video prediction has been tackled with deep learning models. Developing such models requires analysis-ready datasets. We introduce EarthNet2021, a new, curated dataset containing target spatio-temporal Sentinel 2 satellite imagery at 20 m resolution, matched with high-resolution topography and mesoscale (1.28 km) weather variables. With over 32000 samples it is suitable for training deep neural networks. Comparing multiple Earth surface forecasts is not trivial. Hence, we define the EarthNetScore, a novel ranking criterion for models forecasting Earth surface reflectance. For model intercomparison we frame EarthNet2021 as a challenge with four tracks based on different test sets. These allow evaluation of model validity and robustness as well as model applicability to extreme events and the complete annual vegetation cycle. In addition to forecasting directly observable weather impacts through satellite-derived vegetation indices, capable Earth surface models will enable downstream applications such as crop yield prediction, forest health assessments, coastline management, or biodiversity monitoring. Find data, code, and how to participate at www.earthnet.tech .

A Perspective on Gaussian Processes for Earth Observation

Earth observation (EO) by airborne and satellite remote sensing and in-situ observations play a fundamental role in monitoring our planet. In the last decade, machine learning and Gaussian processes (GPs) in particular has attained outstanding results in the estimation of bio-geo-physical variables from the acquired images at local and global scales in a time-resolved manner. GPs provide not only accurate estimates but also principled uncertainty estimates for the predictions, can easily accommodate multimodal data coming from different sensors and from multitemporal acquisitions, allow the introduction of physical knowledge, and a formal treatment of uncertainty quantification and error propagation. Despite great advances in forward and inverse modelling, GP models still have to face important challenges that are revised in this perspective paper. GP models should evolve towards data-driven physics-aware models that respect signal characteristics, be consistent with elementary laws of physics, and move from pure regression to observational causal inference.

Predicting Landscapes from Environmental Conditions Using Generative Networks

Landscapes are meaningful ecological units that strongly depend on the environmental conditions. Such dependencies between landscapes and the environment have been noted since the beginning of Earth sciences and cast into conceptual models describing the interdependencies of climate, geology, vegetation and geomorphology. Here, we ask whether landscapes, as seen from space, can be statistically predicted from pertinent environmental conditions. To this end we adapted a deep learning generative model in order to establish the relationship between the environmental conditions and the view of landscapes from the Sentinel-2 satellite. We trained a conditional generative adversarial network to generate multispectral imagery given a set of climatic, terrain and anthropogenic predictors. The generated imagery of the landscapes share many characteristics with the real one. Results based on landscape patch metrics, indicative of landscape composition and structure, show that the proposed generative model creates landscapes that are more similar to the targets than the baseline models while overall reflectance and vegetation cover are predicted better. We demonstrate that for many purposes the generated landscapes behave as real with immediate application for global change studies. We envision the application of machine learning as a tool to forecast the effects of climate change on the spatial features of landscapes, while we assess its limitations and breaking points.

The FLUXCOM ensemble of global land-atmosphere energy fluxes

Although a key driver of Earth's climate system, global land-atmosphere energy fluxes are poorly constrained. Here we use machine learning to merge energy flux measurements from FLUXNET eddy covariance towers with remote sensing and meteorological data to estimate net radiation, latent and sensible heat and their uncertainties. The resulting FLUXCOM database comprises 147 global gridded products in two setups: (1) 0.0833${\deg}$ resolution using MODIS remote sensing data (RS) and (2) 0.5${\deg}$ resolution using remote sensing and meteorological data (RS+METEO). Within each setup we use a full factorial design across machine learning methods, forcing datasets and energy balance closure corrections. For RS and RS+METEO setups respectively, we estimate 2001-2013 global (${\pm}$ 1 standard deviation) net radiation as 75.8${\pm}$1.4 ${W\ m^{-2}}$ and 77.6${\pm}$2 ${W\ m^{-2}}$, sensible heat as 33${\pm}$4 ${W\ m^{-2}}$ and 36${\pm}$5 ${W\ m^{-2}}$, and evapotranspiration as 75.6${\pm}$10 ${\times}$ 10$^3$ ${km^3\ yr^{-1}}$ and 76${\pm}$6 ${\times}$ 10$^3$ ${km^3\ yr^{-1}}$. FLUXCOM products are suitable to quantify global land-atmosphere interactions and benchmark land surface model simulations.