Comparing Data-Driven and Mechanistic Models for Predicting Phenology in Deciduous Broadleaf Forests

Understanding the future climate is crucial for informed policy decisions on climate change prevention and mitigation. Earth system models play an important role in predicting future climate, requiring accurate representation of complex sub-processes that span multiple time scales and spatial scales. One such process that links seasonal and interannual climate variability to cyclical biological events is tree phenology in deciduous broadleaf forests. Phenological dates, such as the start and end of the growing season, are critical for understanding the exchange of carbon and water between the biosphere and the atmosphere. Mechanistic prediction of these dates is challenging. Hybrid modelling, which integrates data-driven approaches into complex models, offers a solution. In this work, as a first step towards this goal, train a deep neural network to predict a phenological index from meteorological time series. We find that this approach outperforms traditional process-based models. This highlights the potential of data-driven methods to improve climate predictions. We also analyze which variables and aspects of the time series influence the predicted onset of the season, in order to gain a better understanding of the advantages and limitations of our model.

Learning Disentangled Discrete Representations

Recent successes in image generation, model-based reinforcement learning, and text-to-image generation have demonstrated the empirical advantages of discrete latent representations, although the reasons behind their benefits remain unclear. We explore the relationship between discrete latent spaces and disentangled representations by replacing the standard Gaussian variational autoencoder (VAE) with a tailored categorical variational autoencoder. We show that the underlying grid structure of categorical distributions mitigates the problem of rotational invariance associated with multivariate Gaussian distributions, acting as an efficient inductive prior for disentangled representations. We provide both analytical and empirical findings that demonstrate the advantages of discrete VAEs for learning disentangled representations. Furthermore, we introduce the first unsupervised model selection strategy that favors disentangled representations.

Towards Learning an Unbiased Classifier from Biased Data via Conditional Adversarial Debiasing

Bias in classifiers is a severe issue of modern deep learning methods, especially for their application in safety- and security-critical areas. Often, the bias of a classifier is a direct consequence of a bias in the training dataset, frequently caused by the co-occurrence of relevant features and irrelevant ones. To mitigate this issue, we require learning algorithms that prevent the propagation of bias from the dataset into the classifier. We present a novel adversarial debiasing method, which addresses a feature that is spuriously connected to the labels of training images but statistically independent of the labels for test images. Thus, the automatic identification of relevant features during training is perturbed by irrelevant features. This is the case in a wide range of bias-related problems for many computer vision tasks, such as automatic skin cancer detection or driver assistance. We argue by a mathematical proof that our approach is superior to existing techniques for the abovementioned bias. Our experiments show that our approach performs better than state-of-the-art techniques on a well-known benchmark dataset with real-world images of cats and dogs.