SHRUG-FM: Reliability-Aware Foundation Models for Earth Observation

Geospatial foundation models for Earth observation often fail to perform reliably in environments underrepresented during pretraining. We introduce SHRUG-FM, a framework for reliability-aware prediction that integrates three complementary signals: out-of-distribution (OOD) detection in the input space, OOD detection in the embedding space and task-specific predictive uncertainty. Applied to burn scar segmentation, SHRUG-FM shows that OOD scores correlate with lower performance in specific environmental conditions, while uncertainty-based flags help discard many poorly performing predictions. Linking these flags to land cover attributes from HydroATLAS shows that failures are not random but concentrated in certain geographies, such as low-elevation zones and large river areas, likely due to underrepresentation in pretraining data. SHRUG-FM provides a pathway toward safer and more interpretable deployment of GFMs in climate-sensitive applications, helping bridge the gap between benchmark performance and real-world reliability.

Dimensionality Reduction for Remote Sensing Data Analysis: A Systematic Review of Methods and Applications

Earth observation involves collecting, analyzing, and processing an ever-growing mass of data. Automatically harvesting information is crucial for addressing significant societal, economic, and environmental challenges, ranging from environmental monitoring to urban planning and disaster management. However, the high dimensionality of these data poses challenges in terms of sparsity, inefficiency, and the curse of dimensionality, which limits the effectiveness of machine learning models. Dimensionality reduction (DR) techniques, specifically feature extraction, address these challenges by preserving essential data properties while reducing complexity and enhancing tasks such as data compression, cleaning, fusion, visualization, anomaly detection, and prediction. This review provides a handbook for leveraging DR across the RS data value chain and identifies opportunities for under-explored DR algorithms and their application in future research.

AI for Extreme Event Modeling and Understanding: Methodologies and Challenges

In recent years, artificial intelligence (AI) has deeply impacted various fields, including Earth system sciences. Here, AI improved weather forecasting, model emulation, parameter estimation, and the prediction of extreme events. However, the latter comes with specific challenges, such as developing accurate predictors from noisy, heterogeneous and limited annotated data. This paper reviews how AI is being used to analyze extreme events (like floods, droughts, wildfires and heatwaves), highlighting the importance of creating accurate, transparent, and reliable AI models. We discuss the hurdles of dealing with limited data, integrating information in real-time, deploying models, and making them understandable, all crucial for gaining the trust of stakeholders and meeting regulatory needs. We provide an overview of how AI can help identify and explain extreme events more effectively, improving disaster response and communication. We emphasize the need for collaboration across different fields to create AI solutions that are practical, understandable, and trustworthy for analyzing and predicting extreme events. Such collaborative efforts aim to enhance disaster readiness and disaster risk reduction.

Large Language Models for Constrained-Based Causal Discovery

Causality is essential for understanding complex systems, such as the economy, the brain, and the climate. Constructing causal graphs often relies on either data-driven or expert-driven approaches, both fraught with challenges. The former methods, like the celebrated PC algorithm, face issues with data requirements and assumptions of causal sufficiency, while the latter demand substantial time and domain knowledge. This work explores the capabilities of Large Language Models (LLMs) as an alternative to domain experts for causal graph generation. We frame conditional independence queries as prompts to LLMs and employ the PC algorithm with the answers. The performance of the LLM-based conditional independence oracle on systems with known causal graphs shows a high degree of variability. We improve the performance through a proposed statistical-inspired voting schema that allows some control over false-positive and false-negative rates. Inspecting the chain-of-thought argumentation, we find causal reasoning to justify its answer to a probabilistic query. We show evidence that knowledge-based CIT could eventually become a complementary tool for data-driven causal discovery.

Double machine learning for causal hybrid modeling -- applications in the Earth sciences

Hybrid modeling integrates machine learning with scientific knowledge with the goal of enhancing interpretability, generalization, and adherence to natural laws. Nevertheless, equifinality and regularization biases pose challenges in hybrid modeling to achieve these purposes. This paper introduces a novel approach to estimating hybrid models via a causal inference framework, specifically employing Double Machine Learning (DML) to estimate causal effects. We showcase its use for the Earth sciences on two problems related to carbon dioxide fluxes. In the $Q_{10}$ model, we demonstrate that DML-based hybrid modeling is superior in estimating causal parameters over end-to-end deep neural network (DNN) approaches, proving efficiency, robustness to bias from regularization methods, and circumventing equifinality. Our approach, applied to carbon flux partitioning, exhibits flexibility in accommodating heterogeneous causal effects. The study emphasizes the necessity of explicitly defining causal graphs and relationships, advocating for this as a general best practice. We encourage the continued exploration of causality in hybrid models for more interpretable and trustworthy results in knowledge-guided machine learning.