FLUXtrapolation: A benchmark on extrapolating ecosystem fluxes

We introduce FLUXtrapolation, a benchmark for extrapolating ecosystem fluxes under progressively harder distribution shifts. Ecosystem fluxes are central to understanding the carbon, water, and energy cycles, yet they can only be measured directly at sparsely located measurement towers. Producing global flux estimates therefore requires training models on observed sites using globally available covariates and predicting in unobserved regions, that is, upscaling. Flux upscaling is a challenging domain generalization problem that is affected by a shift in covariate distribution across climates, ecosystem types, and environmental conditions, as well as by conditional shift: important drivers remain unobserved at global scale. We provide a quantitative analysis of both these shifts in $P_X$ and $P_{Y\mid X}$. FLUXtrapolation is designed based on domain expertise on flux upscaling: it defines temporal, spatial, and temperature-based extrapolation scenarios and evaluates performance across held-out domains, temporal aggregations, and tail errors. In a pilot study, we find that baselines perform similarly under median hourly RMSE, but separate under the proposed tail-focused and multi-scale evaluation. FLUXtrapolation therefore poses a realistic and thus relevant challenge for machine learning methods under distribution shift; at the same time, progress on this benchmark would directly support the scientific goal of improving flux upscaling.

The FLUXCOM ensemble of global land-atmosphere energy fluxes

Although a key driver of Earth's climate system, global land-atmosphere energy fluxes are poorly constrained. Here we use machine learning to merge energy flux measurements from FLUXNET eddy covariance towers with remote sensing and meteorological data to estimate net radiation, latent and sensible heat and their uncertainties. The resulting FLUXCOM database comprises 147 global gridded products in two setups: (1) 0.0833${\deg}$ resolution using MODIS remote sensing data (RS) and (2) 0.5${\deg}$ resolution using remote sensing and meteorological data (RS+METEO). Within each setup we use a full factorial design across machine learning methods, forcing datasets and energy balance closure corrections. For RS and RS+METEO setups respectively, we estimate 2001-2013 global (${\pm}$ 1 standard deviation) net radiation as 75.8${\pm}$1.4 ${W\ m^{-2}}$ and 77.6${\pm}$2 ${W\ m^{-2}}$, sensible heat as 33${\pm}$4 ${W\ m^{-2}}$ and 36${\pm}$5 ${W\ m^{-2}}$, and evapotranspiration as 75.6${\pm}$10 ${\times}$ 10$^3$ ${km^3\ yr^{-1}}$ and 76${\pm}$6 ${\times}$ 10$^3$ ${km^3\ yr^{-1}}$. FLUXCOM products are suitable to quantify global land-atmosphere interactions and benchmark land surface model simulations.