Atmospheric Transport Modeling of CO$_2$ with Neural Networks

Accurately describing the distribution of CO$_2$ in the atmosphere with atmospheric tracer transport models is essential for greenhouse gas monitoring and verification support systems to aid implementation of international climate agreements. Large deep neural networks are poised to revolutionize weather prediction, which requires 3D modeling of the atmosphere. While similar in this regard, atmospheric transport modeling is subject to new challenges. Both, stable predictions for longer time horizons and mass conservation throughout need to be achieved, while IO plays a larger role compared to computational costs. In this study we explore four different deep neural networks (UNet, GraphCast, Spherical Fourier Neural Operator and SwinTransformer) which have proven as state-of-the-art in weather prediction to assess their usefulness for atmospheric tracer transport modeling. For this, we assemble the CarbonBench dataset, a systematic benchmark tailored for machine learning emulators of Eulerian atmospheric transport. Through architectural adjustments, we decouple the performance of our emulators from the distribution shift caused by a steady rise in atmospheric CO$_2$. More specifically, we center CO$_2$ input fields to zero mean and then use an explicit flux scheme and a mass fixer to assure mass balance. This design enables stable and mass conserving transport for over 6 months with all four neural network architectures. In our study, the SwinTransformer displays particularly strong emulation skill (90-day $R^2 > 0.99$), with physically plausible emulation even for forward runs of multiple years. This work paves the way forward towards high resolution forward and inverse modeling of inert trace gases with neural networks.

Applying ranking techniques for estimating influence of Earth variables on temperature forecast error

This paper describes how to analyze the influence of Earth system variables on the errors when providing temperature forecasts. The initial framework to get the data has been based on previous research work, which resulted in a very interesting discovery. However, the aforementioned study only worked on individual correlations of the variables with respect to the error. This research work is going to re-use the main ideas but introduce three main novelties: (1) applying a data science approach by a few representative locations; (2) taking advantage of the rankings created by Spearman correlation but enriching them with other metrics looking for a more robust ranking of the variables; (3) evaluation of the methodology by learning random forest models for regression with the distinct experimental variations. The main contribution is the framework that shows how to convert correlations into rankings and combine them into an aggregate ranking. We have carried out experiments on five chosen locations to analyze the behavior of this ranking-based methodology. The results show that the specific performance is dependent on the location and season, which is expected, and that this selection technique works properly with Random Forest models but can also improve simpler regression models such as Bayesian Ridge. This work also contributes with an extensive analysis of the results. We can conclude that this selection based on the top-k ranked variables seems promising for this real problem, and it could also be applied in other domains.