Dynamic Linear Coregionalization for Realistic Synthetic Multivariate Time Series

Synthetic data is essential for training foundation models for time series (FMTS), but most generators assume static correlations, and are typically missing realistic inter-channel dependencies. We introduce DynLMC, a Dynamic Linear Model of Coregionalization, that incorporates time-varying, regime-switching correlations and cross-channel lag structures. Our approach produces synthetic multivariate time series with correlation dynamics that closely resemble real data. Fine-tuning three foundational models on DynLMC-generated data yields consistent zero-shot forecasting improvements across nine benchmarks. Our results demonstrate that modeling dynamic inter-channel correlations enhances FMTS transferability, highlighting the importance of data-centric pretraining.

Toward Breaking Watermarks in Distortion-free Large Language Models

In recent years, LLM watermarking has emerged as an attractive safeguard against AI-generated content, with promising applications in many real-world domains. However, there are growing concerns that the current LLM watermarking schemes are vulnerable to expert adversaries wishing to reverse-engineer the watermarking mechanisms. Prior work in "breaking" or "stealing" LLM watermarks mainly focuses on the distribution-modifying algorithm of Kirchenbauer et al. (2023), which perturbs the logit vector before sampling. In this work, we focus on reverse-engineering the other prominent LLM watermarking scheme, distortion-free watermarking (Kuditipudi et al. 2024), which preserves the underlying token distribution by using a hidden watermarking key sequence. We demonstrate that, even under a more sophisticated watermarking scheme, it is possible to "compromise" the LLM and carry out a "spoofing" attack. Specifically, we propose a mixed integer linear programming framework that accurately estimates the secret key used for watermarking using only a few samples of the watermarked dataset. Our initial findings challenge the current theoretical claims on the robustness and usability of existing LLM watermarking techniques.

Synthetic Data Applications in Finance

Synthetic data has made tremendous strides in various commercial settings including finance, healthcare, and virtual reality. We present a broad overview of prototypical applications of synthetic data in the financial sector and in particular provide richer details for a few select ones. These cover a wide variety of data modalities including tabular, time-series, event-series, and unstructured arising from both markets and retail financial applications. Since finance is a highly regulated industry, synthetic data is a potential approach for dealing with issues related to privacy, fairness, and explainability. Various metrics are utilized in evaluating the quality and effectiveness of our approaches in these applications. We conclude with open directions in synthetic data in the context of the financial domain.

A supervised generative optimization approach for tabular data

Synthetic data generation has emerged as a crucial topic for financial institutions, driven by multiple factors, such as privacy protection and data augmentation. Many algorithms have been proposed for synthetic data generation but reaching the consensus on which method we should use for the specific data sets and use cases remains challenging. Moreover, the majority of existing approaches are ``unsupervised'' in the sense that they do not take into account the downstream task. To address these issues, this work presents a novel synthetic data generation framework. The framework integrates a supervised component tailored to the specific downstream task and employs a meta-learning approach to learn the optimal mixture distribution of existing synthetic distributions.