Deep Reinforcement Learning and Mean-Variance Strategies for Responsible Portfolio Optimization

Portfolio optimization involves determining the optimal allocation of portfolio assets in order to maximize a given investment objective. Traditionally, some form of mean-variance optimization is used with the aim of maximizing returns while minimizing risk, however, more recently, deep reinforcement learning formulations have been explored. Increasingly, investors have demonstrated an interest in incorporating ESG objectives when making investment decisions, and modifications to the classical mean-variance optimization framework have been developed. In this work, we study the use of deep reinforcement learning for responsible portfolio optimization, by incorporating ESG states and objectives, and provide comparisons against modified mean-variance approaches. Our results show that deep reinforcement learning policies can provide competitive performance against mean-variance approaches for responsible portfolio allocation across additive and multiplicative utility functions of financial and ESG responsibility objectives.

REFRESH: Responsible and Efficient Feature Reselection Guided by SHAP Values

Feature selection is a crucial step in building machine learning models. This process is often achieved with accuracy as an objective, and can be cumbersome and computationally expensive for large-scale datasets. Several additional model performance characteristics such as fairness and robustness are of importance for model development. As regulations are driving the need for more trustworthy models, deployed models need to be corrected for model characteristics associated with responsible artificial intelligence. When feature selection is done with respect to one model performance characteristic (eg. accuracy), feature selection with secondary model performance characteristics (eg. fairness and robustness) as objectives would require going through the computationally expensive selection process from scratch. In this paper, we introduce the problem of feature \emph{reselection}, so that features can be selected with respect to secondary model performance characteristics efficiently even after a feature selection process has been done with respect to a primary objective. To address this problem, we propose REFRESH, a method to reselect features so that additional constraints that are desirable towards model performance can be achieved without having to train several new models. REFRESH's underlying algorithm is a novel technique using SHAP values and correlation analysis that can approximate for the predictions of a model without having to train these models. Empirical evaluations on three datasets, including a large-scale loan defaulting dataset show that REFRESH can help find alternate models with better model characteristics efficiently. We also discuss the need for reselection and REFRESH based on regulation desiderata.

Privacy-Preserving Algorithmic Recourse

When individuals are subject to adverse outcomes from machine learning models, providing a recourse path to help achieve a positive outcome is desirable. Recent work has shown that counterfactual explanations - which can be used as a means of single-step recourse - are vulnerable to privacy issues, putting an individuals' privacy at risk. Providing a sequential multi-step path for recourse can amplify this risk. Furthermore, simply adding noise to recourse paths found from existing methods can impact the realism and actionability of the path for an end-user. In this work, we address privacy issues when generating realistic recourse paths based on instance-based counterfactual explanations, and provide PrivRecourse: an end-to-end privacy preserving pipeline that can provide realistic recourse paths. PrivRecourse uses differentially private (DP) clustering to represent non-overlapping subsets of the private dataset. These DP cluster centers are then used to generate recourse paths by forming a graph with cluster centers as the nodes, so that we can generate realistic - feasible and actionable - recourse paths. We empirically evaluate our approach on finance datasets and compare it to simply adding noise to data instances, and to using DP synthetic data, to generate the graph. We observe that PrivRecourse can provide paths that are private and realistic.

Towards Accelerating Benders Decomposition via Reinforcement Learning Surrogate Models

Stochastic optimization (SO) attempts to offer optimal decisions in the presence of uncertainty. Often, the classical formulation of these problems becomes intractable due to (a) the number of scenarios required to capture the uncertainty and (b) the discrete nature of real-world planning problems. To overcome these tractability issues, practitioners turn to decomposition methods that divide the problem into smaller, more tractable sub-problems. The focal decomposition method of this paper is Benders decomposition (BD), which decomposes stochastic optimization problems on the basis of scenario independence. In this paper we propose a method of accelerating BD with the aid of a surrogate model in place of an NP-hard integer master problem. Through the acceleration method we observe 30% faster average convergence when compared to other accelerated BD implementations. We introduce a reinforcement learning agent as a surrogate and demonstrate how it can be used to solve a stochastic inventory management problem.

On the Connection between Game-Theoretic Feature Attributions and Counterfactual Explanations

Explainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) has received widespread interest in recent years, and two of the most popular types of explanations are feature attributions, and counterfactual explanations. These classes of approaches have been largely studied independently and the few attempts at reconciling them have been primarily empirical. This work establishes a clear theoretical connection between game-theoretic feature attributions, focusing on but not limited to SHAP, and counterfactuals explanations. After motivating operative changes to Shapley values based feature attributions and counterfactual explanations, we prove that, under conditions, they are in fact equivalent. We then extend the equivalency result to game-theoretic solution concepts beyond Shapley values. Moreover, through the analysis of the conditions of such equivalence, we shed light on the limitations of naively using counterfactual explanations to provide feature importances. Experiments on three datasets quantitatively show the difference in explanations at every stage of the connection between the two approaches and corroborate the theoretical findings.

SHAP@k:Efficient and Probably Approximately Correct (PAC) Identification of Top-k Features

The SHAP framework provides a principled method to explain the predictions of a model by computing feature importance. Motivated by applications in finance, we introduce the Top-k Identification Problem (TkIP), where the objective is to identify the k features with the highest SHAP values. While any method to compute SHAP values with uncertainty estimates (such as KernelSHAP and SamplingSHAP) can be trivially adapted to solve TkIP, doing so is highly sample inefficient. The goal of our work is to improve the sample efficiency of existing methods in the context of solving TkIP. Our key insight is that TkIP can be framed as an Explore-m problem--a well-studied problem related to multi-armed bandits (MAB). This connection enables us to improve sample efficiency by leveraging two techniques from the MAB literature: (1) a better stopping-condition (to stop sampling) that identifies when PAC (Probably Approximately Correct) guarantees have been met and (2) a greedy sampling scheme that judiciously allocates samples between different features. By adopting these methods we develop KernelSHAP@k and SamplingSHAP@k to efficiently solve TkIP, offering an average improvement of $5\times$ in sample-efficiency and runtime across most common credit related datasets.

GLOBE-CE: A Translation-Based Approach for Global Counterfactual Explanations

Counterfactual explanations have been widely studied in explainability, with a range of application dependent methods prominent in fairness, recourse and model understanding. The major shortcoming associated with these methods, however, is their inability to provide explanations beyond the local or instance-level. While many works touch upon the notion of a global explanation, typically suggesting to aggregate masses of local explanations in the hope of ascertaining global properties, few provide frameworks that are both reliable and computationally tractable. Meanwhile, practitioners are requesting more efficient and interactive explainability tools. We take this opportunity to propose Global & Efficient Counterfactual Explanations (GLOBE-CE), a flexible framework that tackles the reliability and scalability issues associated with current state-of-the-art, particularly on higher dimensional datasets and in the presence of continuous features. Furthermore, we provide a unique mathematical analysis of categorical feature translations, utilising it in our method. Experimental evaluation with publicly available datasets and user studies demonstrate that GLOBE-CE performs significantly better than the current state-of-the-art across multiple metrics (e.g., speed, reliability).

Robust Counterfactual Explanations for Neural Networks With Probabilistic Guarantees

There is an emerging interest in generating robust counterfactual explanations that would remain valid if the model is updated or changed even slightly. Towards finding robust counterfactuals, existing literature often assumes that the original model $m$ and the new model $M$ are bounded in the parameter space, i.e., $\|\text{Params}(M){-}\text{Params}(m)\|{<}\Delta$. However, models can often change significantly in the parameter space with little to no change in their predictions or accuracy on the given dataset. In this work, we introduce a mathematical abstraction termed \emph{naturally-occurring} model change, which allows for arbitrary changes in the parameter space such that the change in predictions on points that lie on the data manifold is limited. Next, we propose a measure -- that we call \emph{Stability} -- to quantify the robustness of counterfactuals to potential model changes for differentiable models, e.g., neural networks. Our main contribution is to show that counterfactuals with sufficiently high value of \emph{Stability} as defined by our measure will remain valid after potential ``naturally-occurring'' model changes with high probability (leveraging concentration bounds for Lipschitz function of independent Gaussians). Since our quantification depends on the local Lipschitz constant around a data point which is not always available, we also examine practical relaxations of our proposed measure and demonstrate experimentally how they can be incorporated to find robust counterfactuals for neural networks that are close, realistic, and remain valid after potential model changes.

Bayesian Hierarchical Models for Counterfactual Estimation

Counterfactual explanations utilize feature perturbations to analyze the outcome of an original decision and recommend an actionable recourse. We argue that it is beneficial to provide several alternative explanations rather than a single point solution and propose a probabilistic paradigm to estimate a diverse set of counterfactuals. Specifically, we treat the perturbations as random variables endowed with prior distribution functions. This allows sampling multiple counterfactuals from the posterior density, with the added benefit of incorporating inductive biases, preserving domain specific constraints and quantifying uncertainty in estimates. More importantly, we leverage Bayesian hierarchical modeling to share information across different subgroups of a population, which can both improve robustness and measure fairness. A gradient based sampler with superior convergence characteristics efficiently computes the posterior samples. Experiments across several datasets demonstrate that the counterfactuals estimated using our approach are valid, sparse, diverse and feasible.

Learn to explain yourself, when you can: Equipping Concept Bottleneck Models with the ability to abstain on their concept predictions

The Concept Bottleneck Models (CBMs) of Koh et al. [2020] provide a means to ensure that a neural network based classifier bases its predictions solely on human understandable concepts. The concept labels, or rationales as we refer to them, are learned by the concept labeling component of the CBM. Another component learns to predict the target classification label from these predicted concept labels. Unfortunately, these models are heavily reliant on human provided concept labels for each datapoint. To enable CBMs to behave robustly when these labels are not readily available, we show how to equip them with the ability to abstain from predicting concepts when the concept labeling component is uncertain. In other words, our model learns to provide rationales for its predictions, but only whenever it is sure the rationale is correct.