Identification and Bounding of Central Moments of Causal Effects Using Marginal Moments Information

Evaluating the causal effect of a treatment on an outcome is a central objective in causal inference. While the average causal effect summarizes the mean impact of treatment, the central moments of the individual causal effect (ICE) characterize the shape of the ICE distribution, thereby revealing the extent and structure of treatment effect heterogeneity across individuals. This paper investigates the identification and bounding of the central moments of the ICE using only the marginal central moments of each potential outcome (PO). Compared with existing approaches that require knowledge of the full marginal distributions of the POs, marginal moment information is often substantially easier to obtain in empirical applications. Finally, we illustrate the practical relevance of our results through two empirical case studies.

Fixed-Confidence Best-Arm Identification for Causal Mediation Analysis

This paper studies the problem of identifying the treatment that maximizes the expected natural direct potential outcome (NDPO), which captures the potential outcome of an intervention while excluding the pathway transmitted through a mediator that researchers may wish to remove from evaluation. We first establish population-level identification of the expected NDPO in a causal bandit setting using observable interventional distributions. We then develop a fixed-confidence best-arm identification (BAI) algorithm based on the Track-and-Stop (TaS) framework, employing a cutting-set method to solve the resulting semi-infinite optimization problem. The proposed algorithm achieves sample-efficient identification with a high-probability correctness guarantee. We prove that it satisfies $δ$-correctness and asymptotic optimality. Finally, we validate the approach through empirical evaluations on a large-scale real-world advertising dataset (IPinYou).

Potential Outcome Rankings for Counterfactual Decision Making

Counterfactual decision-making in the face of uncertainty involves selecting the optimal action from several alternatives using causal reasoning. Decision-makers often rank expected potential outcomes (or their corresponding utility and desirability) to compare the preferences of candidate actions. In this paper, we study new counterfactual decision-making rules by introducing two new metrics: the probabilities of potential outcome ranking (PoR) and the probability of achieving the best potential outcome (PoB). PoR reveals the most probable ranking of potential outcomes for an individual, and PoB indicates the action most likely to yield the top-ranked outcome for an individual. We then establish identification theorems and derive bounds for these metrics, and present estimation methods. Finally, we perform numerical experiments to illustrate the finite-sample properties of the estimators and demonstrate their application to a real-world dataset.

Self-Supervised Multi-Part Articulated Objects Modeling via Deformable Gaussian Splatting and Progressive Primitive Segmentation

Articulated objects are ubiquitous in everyday life, and accurate 3D representations of their geometry and motion are critical for numerous applications. However, in the absence of human annotation, existing approaches still struggle to build a unified representation for objects that contain multiple movable parts. We introduce DeGSS, a unified framework that encodes articulated objects as deformable 3D Gaussian fields, embedding geometry, appearance, and motion in one compact representation. Each interaction state is modeled as a smooth deformation of a shared field, and the resulting deformation trajectories guide a progressive coarse-to-fine part segmentation that identifies distinct rigid components, all in an unsupervised manner. The refined field provides a spatially continuous, fully decoupled description of every part, supporting part-level reconstruction and precise modeling of their kinematic relationships. To evaluate generalization and realism, we enlarge the synthetic PartNet-Mobility benchmark and release RS-Art, a real-to-sim dataset that pairs RGB captures with accurately reverse-engineered 3D models. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our method outperforms existing methods in both accuracy and stability.

Moments of Causal Effects

The moments of random variables are fundamental statistical measures for characterizing the shape of a probability distribution, encompassing metrics such as mean, variance, skewness, and kurtosis. Additionally, the product moments, including covariance and correlation, reveal the relationships between multiple random variables. On the other hand, the primary focus of causal inference is the evaluation of causal effects, which are defined as the difference between two potential outcomes. While traditional causal effect assessment focuses on the average causal effect, this work provides definitions, identification theorems, and bounds for moments and product moments of causal effects to analyze their distribution and relationships. We conduct experiments to illustrate the estimation of the moments of causal effects from finite samples and demonstrate their practical application using a real-world medical dataset.

Decomposition of Probabilities of Causation with Two Mediators

Mediation analysis for probabilities of causation (PoC) provides a fundamental framework for evaluating the necessity and sufficiency of treatment in provoking an event through different causal pathways. One of the primary objectives of causal mediation analysis is to decompose the total effect into path-specific components. In this study, we investigate the path-specific probability of necessity and sufficiency (PNS) to decompose the total PNS into path-specific components along distinct causal pathways between treatment and outcome, incorporating two mediators. We define the path-specific PNS for decomposition and provide an identification theorem. Furthermore, we conduct numerical experiments to assess the properties of the proposed estimators from finite samples and demonstrate their practical application using a real-world educational dataset.

Dynamic Pyramid Network for Efficient Multimodal Large Language Model

Multimodal large language models (MLLMs) have demonstrated impressive performance in various vision-language (VL) tasks, but their expensive computations still limit the real-world application. To address this issue, recent efforts aim to compress the visual features to save the computational costs of MLLMs. However, direct visual compression methods, e.g. efficient projectors, inevitably destroy the visual semantics in MLLM, especially in difficult samples. To overcome this shortcoming, we propose a novel dynamic pyramid network (DPN) for efficient MLLMs. Specifically, DPN formulates MLLM as a hierarchical structure where visual features are gradually compressed with increasing depth. In this case, even with a high compression ratio, fine-grained visual information can still be perceived in shallow layers. To maximize the benefit of DPN, we further propose an innovative Dynamic Pooling Experts (DPE) that can dynamically choose the optimal visual compression rate according to input features. With this design, harder samples will be assigned larger computations, thus preserving the model performance. To validate our approach, we conduct extensive experiments on two popular MLLMs and ten benchmarks. Experimental results show that DPN can save up to 56% average FLOPs on LLaVA while further achieving +0.74% performance gains. Besides, the generalization ability of DPN is also validated on the existing high-resolution MLLM called LLaVA-HR. Our source codes are anonymously released at https://github.com/aihao2000/DPN-LLaVA.

Standard-Deviation-Inspired Regularization for Improving Adversarial Robustness

Adversarial Training (AT) has been demonstrated to improve the robustness of deep neural networks (DNNs) against adversarial attacks. AT is a min-max optimization procedure where in adversarial examples are generated to train a more robust DNN. The inner maximization step of AT increases the losses of inputs with respect to their actual classes. The outer minimization involves minimizing the losses on the adversarial examples obtained from the inner maximization. This work proposes a standard-deviation-inspired (SDI) regularization term to improve adversarial robustness and generalization. We argue that the inner maximization in AT is similar to minimizing a modified standard deviation of the model's output probabilities. Moreover, we suggest that maximizing this modified standard deviation can complement the outer minimization of the AT framework. To support our argument, we experimentally show that the SDI measure can be used to craft adversarial examples. Additionally, we demonstrate that combining the SDI regularization term with existing AT variants enhances the robustness of DNNs against stronger attacks, such as CW and Auto-attack, and improves generalization.

Mediation Analysis for Probabilities of Causation

Probabilities of causation (PoC) offer valuable insights for informed decision-making. This paper introduces novel variants of PoC-controlled direct, natural direct, and natural indirect probability of necessity and sufficiency (PNS). These metrics quantify the necessity and sufficiency of a treatment for producing an outcome, accounting for different causal pathways. We develop identification theorems for these new PoC measures, allowing for their estimation from observational data. We demonstrate the practical application of our results through an analysis of a real-world psychology dataset.

Effects of Muscle Synergy during Overhead Work with a Passive Shoulder Exoskeleton: A Case Study

Objective: Shoulder exoskeletons can effectively assist with overhead work. However, their impacts on muscle synergy remain unclear. The objective is to systematically investigate the effects of the shoulder exoskeleton on muscle synergies during overhead work.Methods: Eight male participants were recruited to perform a screwing task both with (Intervention) and without (Normal) the exoskeleton. Eight muscles were monitored and muscle synergies were extracted using non-negative matrix factorization and electromyographic topographic maps. Results: The number of synergies extracted was the same (n = 2) in both conditions. Specifically, the first synergies in both conditions were identical, with the highest weight of AD and MD; while the second synergies were different between conditions, with highest weight of PM and MD, respectively. As for the first synergy in the Intervention condition, the activation profile significantly decreased, and the average recruitment level and activation duration were significantly lower (p<0.05). The regression analysis for the muscle synergies across conditions shows the changes of muscle synergies did not influence the sparseness of muscle synergies (p=0.7341). In the topographic maps, the mean value exhibited a significant decrease (p<0.001) and the entropy significantly increased (p<0.01). Conclusion: The exoskeleton does not alter the number of synergies and existing major synergies but may induce new synergies. It can also significantly decrease neural activation and may influence the heterogeneity of the distribution of monitored muscle activations. Significance: This study provides insights into the potential mechanisms of exoskeleton-assisted overhead work and guidance on improving the performance of exoskeletons.