Lag-Llama: Towards Foundation Models for Time Series Forecasting

Aiming to build foundation models for time-series forecasting and study their scaling behavior, we present here our work-in-progress on Lag-Llama, a general-purpose univariate probabilistic time-series forecasting model trained on a large collection of time-series data. The model shows good zero-shot prediction capabilities on unseen "out-of-distribution" time-series datasets, outperforming supervised baselines. We use smoothly broken power-laws to fit and predict model scaling behavior. The open source code is made available at https://github.com/kashif/pytorch-transformer-ts.

LORD: Low Rank Decomposition Of Monolingual Code LLMs For One-Shot Compression

Low Rank Decomposition of matrix - splitting a large matrix into a product of two smaller matrix offers a means for compression that reduces the parameters of a model without sparsification, and hence delivering more speedup on modern hardware. Moreover, unlike quantization, the compressed linear layers remain fully differentiable and all the parameters trainable, while being able to leverage the existing highly efficient kernels over floating point matrices. We study the potential to compress Large Language Models (LLMs) for monolingual Code generation via Low Rank Decomposition (LoRD) and observe that ranks for the linear layers in these models can be reduced by upto 39.58% with less than 1% increase in perplexity. We then use Low Rank Decomposition (LoRD) to compress StarCoder 16B to 13.2B parameter with no drop and to 12.3B with minimal drop in HumanEval Pass@1 score, in less than 10 minutes on a single A100. The compressed models speeds up inference by up to 22.35% with just a single line of change in code over huggingface's implementation with pytorch backend. Low Rank Decomposition (LoRD) models remain compatible with state of the art near-lossless quantization method such as SpQR, which allows leveraging further compression gains of quantization. Lastly, QLoRA over Low Rank Decomposition (LoRD) model further reduces memory requirements by as much as 21.2% over vanilla QLoRA while offering similar gains from parameter efficient fine tuning. Our work shows Low Rank Decomposition (LoRD) as a promising new paradigm for LLM compression.

Amplifying Pathological Detection in EEG Signaling Pathways through Cross-Dataset Transfer Learning

Pathology diagnosis based on EEG signals and decoding brain activity holds immense importance in understanding neurological disorders. With the advancement of artificial intelligence methods and machine learning techniques, the potential for accurate data-driven diagnoses and effective treatments has grown significantly. However, applying machine learning algorithms to real-world datasets presents diverse challenges at multiple levels. The scarcity of labelled data, especially in low regime scenarios with limited availability of real patient cohorts due to high costs of recruitment, underscores the vital deployment of scaling and transfer learning techniques. In this study, we explore a real-world pathology classification task to highlight the effectiveness of data and model scaling and cross-dataset knowledge transfer. As such, we observe varying performance improvements through data scaling, indicating the need for careful evaluation and labelling. Additionally, we identify the challenges of possible negative transfer and emphasize the significance of some key components to overcome distribution shifts and potential spurious correlations and achieve positive transfer. We see improvement in the performance of the target model on the target (NMT) datasets by using the knowledge from the source dataset (TUAB) when a low amount of labelled data was available. Our findings indicate a small and generic model (e.g. ShallowNet) performs well on a single dataset, however, a larger model (e.g. TCN) performs better on transfer and learning from a larger and diverse dataset.

Continual Pre-Training of Large Language Models: How to (re)warm your model?

Large language models (LLMs) are routinely pre-trained on billions of tokens, only to restart the process over again once new data becomes available. A much cheaper and more efficient solution would be to enable the continual pre-training of these models, i.e. updating pre-trained models with new data instead of re-training them from scratch. However, the distribution shift induced by novel data typically results in degraded performance on past data. Taking a step towards efficient continual pre-training, in this work, we examine the effect of different warm-up strategies. Our hypothesis is that the learning rate must be re-increased to improve compute efficiency when training on a new dataset. We study the warmup phase of models pre-trained on the Pile (upstream data, 300B tokens) as we continue to pre-train on SlimPajama (downstream data, 297B tokens), following a linear warmup and cosine decay schedule. We conduct all experiments on the Pythia 410M language model architecture and evaluate performance through validation perplexity. We experiment with different pre-training checkpoints, various maximum learning rates, and various warmup lengths. Our results show that while rewarming models first increases the loss on upstream and downstream data, in the longer run it improves the downstream performance, outperforming models trained from scratch$\unicode{x2013}$even for a large downstream dataset.

GOKU-UI: Ubiquitous Inference through Attention and Multiple Shooting for Continuous-time Generative Models

Scientific Machine Learning (SciML) is a burgeoning field that synergistically combines domain-aware and interpretable models with agnostic machine learning techniques. In this work, we introduce GOKU-UI, an evolution of the SciML generative model GOKU-nets. The GOKU-UI broadens the original model's spectrum to incorporate other classes of differential equations, such as Stochastic Differential Equations (SDEs), and integrates a distributed, i.e. ubiquitous, inference through attention mechanisms and a novel multiple shooting training strategy in the latent space. These enhancements have led to a significant increase in its performance in both reconstruction and forecast tasks, as demonstrated by our evaluation of simulated and empirical data. Specifically, GOKU-UI outperformed all baseline models on synthetic datasets even with a training set 32-fold smaller, underscoring its remarkable data efficiency. Furthermore, when applied to empirical human brain data, while incorporating stochastic Stuart-Landau oscillators into its dynamical core, it not only surpassed state-of-the-art baseline methods in the reconstruction task, but also demonstrated better prediction of future brain activity up to 12 seconds ahead. By training GOKU-UI on resting-state fMRI data, we encoded whole-brain dynamics into a latent representation, learning an effective low-dimensional dynamical system model that could offer insights into brain functionality and open avenues for practical applications such as mental state or psychiatric condition classification. Ultimately, our research provides further impetus for the field of Scientific Machine Learning, showcasing the potential for advancements when established scientific insights are interwoven with modern machine learning.

Maximum State Entropy Exploration using Predecessor and Successor Representations

Animals have a developed ability to explore that aids them in important tasks such as locating food, exploring for shelter, and finding misplaced items. These exploration skills necessarily track where they have been so that they can plan for finding items with relative efficiency. Contemporary exploration algorithms often learn a less efficient exploration strategy because they either condition only on the current state or simply rely on making random open-loop exploratory moves. In this work, we propose $\eta\psi$-Learning, a method to learn efficient exploratory policies by conditioning on past episodic experience to make the next exploratory move. Specifically, $\eta\psi$-Learning learns an exploration policy that maximizes the entropy of the state visitation distribution of a single trajectory. Furthermore, we demonstrate how variants of the predecessor representation and successor representations can be combined to predict the state visitation entropy. Our experiments demonstrate the efficacy of $\eta\psi$-Learning to strategically explore the environment and maximize the state coverage with limited samples.

Predicting Grokking Long Before it Happens: A look into the loss landscape of models which grok

This paper focuses on predicting the occurrence of grokking in neural networks, a phenomenon in which perfect generalization emerges long after signs of overfitting or memorization are observed. It has been reported that grokking can only be observed with certain hyper-parameters. This makes it critical to identify the parameters that lead to grokking. However, since grokking occurs after a large number of epochs, searching for the hyper-parameters that lead to it is time-consuming. In this paper, we propose a low-cost method to predict grokking without training for a large number of epochs. In essence, by studying the learning curve of the first few epochs, we show that one can predict whether grokking will occur later on. Specifically, if certain oscillations occur in the early epochs, one can expect grokking to occur if the model is trained for a much longer period of time. We propose using the spectral signature of a learning curve derived by applying the Fourier transform to quantify the amplitude of low-frequency components to detect the presence of such oscillations. We also present additional experiments aimed at explaining the cause of these oscillations and characterizing the loss landscape.

Towards ethical multimodal systems

The impact of artificial intelligence systems on our society is increasing at an unprecedented speed. For instance, ChatGPT is being tested in mental health treatment applications such as Koko, Stable Diffusion generates pieces of art competitive with (or outperforming) human artists, and so on. Ethical concerns regarding the behavior and applications of generative AI systems have been increasing over the past years, and the field of AI alignment - steering the behavior of AI systems towards being aligned with human values - is a rapidly growing subfield of modern AI. In this paper, we address the challenges involved in ethical evaluation of a multimodal artificial intelligence system. The multimodal systems we focus on take both text and an image as input and output text, completing the sentence or answering the question asked as input. We perform the evaluation of these models in two steps: we first discus the creation of a multimodal ethical database and then use this database to construct morality-evaluating algorithms. The creation of the multimodal ethical database is done interactively through human feedback. Users are presented with multiple examples and votes on whether they are ethical or not. Once these answers have been aggregated into a dataset, we built and tested different algorithms to automatically evaluate the morality of multimodal systems. These algorithms aim to classify the answers as ethical or not. The models we tested are a RoBERTa-large classifier and a multilayer perceptron classifier.

A Survey on Compositional Generalization in Applications

The field of compositional generalization is currently experiencing a renaissance in AI, as novel problem settings and algorithms motivated by various practical applications are being introduced, building on top of the classical compositional generalization problem. This article aims to provide a comprehensive review of top recent developments in multiple real-life applications of the compositional generalization. Specifically, we introduce a taxonomy of common applications and summarize the state-of-the-art for each of those domains. Furthermore, we identify important current trends and provide new perspectives pertaining to the future of this burgeoning field.

Broken Neural Scaling Laws

We present a smoothly broken power law functional form that accurately models and extrapolates the scaling behaviors of deep neural networks (i.e. how the evaluation metric of interest varies as the amount of compute used for training, number of model parameters, training dataset size, or upstream performance varies) for each task within a large and diverse set of upstream and downstream tasks, in zero-shot, prompted, and fine-tuned settings. This set includes large-scale vision and unsupervised language tasks, diffusion generative modeling of images, arithmetic, and reinforcement learning. When compared to other functional forms for neural scaling behavior, this functional form yields extrapolations of scaling behavior that are considerably more accurate on this set. Moreover, this functional form accurately models and extrapolates scaling behavior that other functional forms are incapable of expressing such as the non-monotonic transitions present in the scaling behavior of phenomena such as double descent and the delayed, sharp inflection points present in the scaling behavior of tasks such as arithmetic. Lastly, we use this functional form to glean insights about the limit of the predictability of scaling behavior. Code is available at https://github.com/ethancaballero/broken_neural_scaling_laws