WeatherBench 2: A benchmark for the next generation of data-driven global weather models

WeatherBench 2 is an update to the global, medium-range (1-14 day) weather forecasting benchmark proposed by Rasp et al. (2020), designed with the aim to accelerate progress in data-driven weather modeling. WeatherBench 2 consists of an open-source evaluation framework, publicly available training, ground truth and baseline data as well as a continuously updated website with the latest metrics and state-of-the-art models: https://sites.research.google/weatherbench. This paper describes the design principles of the evaluation framework and presents results for current state-of-the-art physical and data-driven weather models. The metrics are based on established practices for evaluating weather forecasts at leading operational weather centers. We define a set of headline scores to provide an overview of model performance. In addition, we also discuss caveats in the current evaluation setup and challenges for the future of data-driven weather forecasting.

SEEDS: Emulation of Weather Forecast Ensembles with Diffusion Models

Probabilistic forecasting is crucial to decision-making under uncertainty about future weather. The dominant approach is to use an ensemble of forecasts to represent and quantify uncertainty in operational numerical weather prediction. However, generating ensembles is computationally costly. In this paper, we propose to generate ensemble forecasts at scale by leveraging recent advances in generative artificial intelligence. Our approach learns a data-driven probabilistic diffusion model from the 5-member ensemble GEFS reforecast dataset. The model can then be sampled efficiently to produce realistic weather forecasts, conditioned on a few members of the operational GEFS forecasting system. The generated ensembles have similar predictive skill as the full GEFS 31-member ensemble, evaluated against ERA5 reanalysis, and emulate well the statistics of large physics-based ensembles. We also apply the same methodology to developing a diffusion model for generative post-processing: the model directly learns to correct biases present in the emulated forecasting system by leveraging reanalysis data as labels during training. Ensembles from this generative post-processing model show greater reliability and accuracy, particularly in extreme event classification. In general, they are more reliable and forecast the probability of extreme weather more accurately than the GEFS operational ensemble. Our models achieve these results at less than 1/10th of the computational cost incurred by the operational GEFS system.

Encyclopedic VQA: Visual questions about detailed properties of fine-grained categories

We propose Encyclopedic-VQA, a large scale visual question answering (VQA) dataset featuring visual questions about detailed properties of fine-grained categories and instances. It contains 221k unique question+answer pairs each matched with (up to) 5 images, resulting in a total of 1M VQA samples. Moreover, our dataset comes with a controlled knowledge base derived from Wikipedia, marking the evidence to support each answer. Empirically, we show that our dataset poses a hard challenge for large vision+language models as they perform poorly on our dataset: PaLI [14] is state-of-the-art on OK-VQA [37], yet it only achieves 13.0% accuracy on our dataset. Moreover, we experimentally show that progress on answering our encyclopedic questions can be achieved by augmenting large models with a mechanism that retrieves relevant information from the knowledge base. An oracle experiment with perfect retrieval achieves 87.0% accuracy on the single-hop portion of our dataset, and an automatic retrieval-augmented prototype yields 48.8%. We believe that our dataset enables future research on retrieval-augmented vision+language models.

User-defined Event Sampling and Uncertainty Quantification in Diffusion Models for Physical Dynamical Systems

Diffusion models are a class of probabilistic generative models that have been widely used as a prior for image processing tasks like text conditional generation and inpainting. We demonstrate that these models can be adapted to make predictions and provide uncertainty quantification for chaotic dynamical systems. In these applications, diffusion models can implicitly represent knowledge about outliers and extreme events; however, querying that knowledge through conditional sampling or measuring probabilities is surprisingly difficult. Existing methods for conditional sampling at inference time seek mainly to enforce the constraints, which is insufficient to match the statistics of the distribution or compute the probability of the chosen events. To achieve these ends, optimally one would use the conditional score function, but its computation is typically intractable. In this work, we develop a probabilistic approximation scheme for the conditional score function which provably converges to the true distribution as the noise level decreases. With this scheme we are able to sample conditionally on nonlinear userdefined events at inference time, and matches data statistics even when sampling from the tails of the distribution.

Neural Ideal Large Eddy Simulation: Modeling Turbulence with Neural Stochastic Differential Equations

We introduce a data-driven learning framework that assimilates two powerful ideas: ideal large eddy simulation (LES) from turbulence closure modeling and neural stochastic differential equations (SDE) for stochastic modeling. The ideal LES models the LES flow by treating each full-order trajectory as a random realization of the underlying dynamics, as such, the effect of small-scales is marginalized to obtain the deterministic evolution of the LES state. However, ideal LES is analytically intractable. In our work, we use a latent neural SDE to model the evolution of the stochastic process and an encoder-decoder pair for transforming between the latent space and the desired ideal flow field. This stands in sharp contrast to other types of neural parameterization of closure models where each trajectory is treated as a deterministic realization of the dynamics. We show the effectiveness of our approach (niLES - neural ideal LES) on a challenging chaotic dynamical system: Kolmogorov flow at a Reynolds number of 20,000. Compared to competing methods, our method can handle non-uniform geometries using unstructured meshes seamlessly. In particular, niLES leads to trajectories with more accurate statistics and enhances stability, particularly for long-horizon rollouts.

Debias Coarsely, Sample Conditionally: Statistical Downscaling through Optimal Transport and Probabilistic Diffusion Models

We introduce a two-stage probabilistic framework for statistical downscaling between unpaired data. Statistical downscaling seeks a probabilistic map to transform low-resolution data from a (possibly biased) coarse-grained numerical scheme to high-resolution data that is consistent with a high-fidelity scheme. Our framework tackles the problem by tandeming two transformations: a debiasing step that is performed by an optimal transport map, and an upsampling step that is achieved by a probabilistic diffusion model with \textit{a posteriori} conditional sampling. This approach characterizes a conditional distribution without the need for paired data, and faithfully recovers relevant physical statistics from biased samples. We demonstrate the utility of the proposed approach on one- and two-dimensional fluid flow problems, which are representative of the core difficulties present in numerical simulations of weather and climate. Our method produces realistic high-resolution outputs from low-resolution inputs, by upsampling resolutions of $8\times$ and $16\times$. Moreover, our procedure correctly matches the statistics of physical quantities, even when the low-frequency content of the inputs and outputs do not match, a crucial but difficult-to-satisfy assumption needed by current state-of-the-art alternatives.

V2Meow: Meowing to the Visual Beat via Music Generation

Generating high quality music that complements the visual content of a video is a challenging task. Most existing visual conditioned music generation systems generate symbolic music data, such as MIDI files, instead of raw audio waveform. Given the limited availability of symbolic music data, such methods can only generate music for a few instruments or for specific types of visual input. In this paper, we propose a novel approach called V2Meow that can generate high-quality music audio that aligns well with the visual semantics of a diverse range of video input types. Specifically, the proposed music generation system is a multi-stage autoregressive model which is trained with a number of O(100K) music audio clips paired with video frames, which are mined from in-the-wild music videos, and no parallel symbolic music data is involved. V2Meow is able to synthesize high-fidelity music audio waveform solely conditioned on pre-trained visual features extracted from an arbitrary silent video clip, and it also allows high-level control over the music style of generation examples via supporting text prompts in addition to the video frames conditioning. Through both qualitative and quantitative evaluations, we demonstrate that our model outperforms several existing music generation systems in terms of both visual-audio correspondence and audio quality.

Policy-Induced Self-Supervision Improves Representation Finetuning in Visual RL

We study how to transfer representations pretrained on source tasks to target tasks in visual percept based RL. We analyze two popular approaches: freezing or finetuning the pretrained representations. Empirical studies on a set of popular tasks reveal several properties of pretrained representations. First, finetuning is required even when pretrained representations perfectly capture the information required to solve the target task. Second, finetuned representations improve learnability and are more robust to noise. Third, pretrained bottom layers are task-agnostic and readily transferable to new tasks, while top layers encode task-specific information and require adaptation. Building on these insights, we propose a self-supervised objective that clusters representations according to the policy they induce, as opposed to traditional representation similarity measures which are policy-agnostic (e.g. Euclidean norm, cosine similarity). Together with freezing the bottom layers, this objective results in significantly better representation than frozen, finetuned, and self-supervised alternatives on a wide range of benchmarks.

Evolve Smoothly, Fit Consistently: Learning Smooth Latent Dynamics For Advection-Dominated Systems

We present a data-driven, space-time continuous framework to learn surrogatemodels for complex physical systems described by advection-dominated partialdifferential equations. Those systems have slow-decaying Kolmogorovn-widththat hinders standard methods, including reduced order modeling, from producinghigh-fidelity simulations at low cost. In this work, we construct hypernetwork-based latent dynamical models directly on the parameter space of a compactrepresentation network. We leverage the expressive power of the network and aspecially designed consistency-inducing regularization to obtain latent trajectoriesthat are both low-dimensional and smooth. These properties render our surrogatemodels highly efficient at inference time. We show the efficacy of our frameworkby learning models that generate accurate multi-step rollout predictions at muchfaster inference speed compared to competitors, for several challenging examples.

Pre-computed memory or on-the-fly encoding? A hybrid approach to retrieval augmentation makes the most of your compute

Retrieval-augmented language models such as Fusion-in-Decoder are powerful, setting the state of the art on a variety of knowledge-intensive tasks. However, they are also expensive, due to the need to encode a large number of retrieved passages. Some work avoids this cost by pre-encoding a text corpus into a memory and retrieving dense representations directly. However, pre-encoding memory incurs a severe quality penalty as the memory representations are not conditioned on the current input. We propose LUMEN, a hybrid between these two extremes, pre-computing the majority of the retrieval representation and completing the encoding on the fly using a live encoder that is conditioned on the question and fine-tuned for the task. We show that LUMEN significantly outperforms pure memory on multiple question-answering tasks while being much cheaper than FiD, and outperforms both for any given compute budget. Moreover, the advantage of LUMEN over FiD increases with model size.