SEEDS: Emulation of Weather Forecast Ensembles with Diffusion Models

Probabilistic forecasting is crucial to decision-making under uncertainty about future weather. The dominant approach is to use an ensemble of forecasts to represent and quantify uncertainty in operational numerical weather prediction. However, generating ensembles is computationally costly. In this paper, we propose to generate ensemble forecasts at scale by leveraging recent advances in generative artificial intelligence. Our approach learns a data-driven probabilistic diffusion model from the 5-member ensemble GEFS reforecast dataset. The model can then be sampled efficiently to produce realistic weather forecasts, conditioned on a few members of the operational GEFS forecasting system. The generated ensembles have similar predictive skill as the full GEFS 31-member ensemble, evaluated against ERA5 reanalysis, and emulate well the statistics of large physics-based ensembles. We also apply the same methodology to developing a diffusion model for generative post-processing: the model directly learns to correct biases present in the emulated forecasting system by leveraging reanalysis data as labels during training. Ensembles from this generative post-processing model show greater reliability and accuracy, particularly in extreme event classification. In general, they are more reliable and forecast the probability of extreme weather more accurately than the GEFS operational ensemble. Our models achieve these results at less than 1/10th of the computational cost incurred by the operational GEFS system.

Debias Coarsely, Sample Conditionally: Statistical Downscaling through Optimal Transport and Probabilistic Diffusion Models

We introduce a two-stage probabilistic framework for statistical downscaling between unpaired data. Statistical downscaling seeks a probabilistic map to transform low-resolution data from a (possibly biased) coarse-grained numerical scheme to high-resolution data that is consistent with a high-fidelity scheme. Our framework tackles the problem by tandeming two transformations: a debiasing step that is performed by an optimal transport map, and an upsampling step that is achieved by a probabilistic diffusion model with \textit{a posteriori} conditional sampling. This approach characterizes a conditional distribution without the need for paired data, and faithfully recovers relevant physical statistics from biased samples. We demonstrate the utility of the proposed approach on one- and two-dimensional fluid flow problems, which are representative of the core difficulties present in numerical simulations of weather and climate. Our method produces realistic high-resolution outputs from low-resolution inputs, by upsampling resolutions of $8\times$ and $16\times$. Moreover, our procedure correctly matches the statistics of physical quantities, even when the low-frequency content of the inputs and outputs do not match, a crucial but difficult-to-satisfy assumption needed by current state-of-the-art alternatives.

Deep Learning Models for Predicting Wildfires from Historical Remote-Sensing Data

Identifying regions that have high likelihood for wildfires is a key component of land and forestry management and disaster preparedness. We create a data set by aggregating nearly a decade of remote-sensing data and historical fire records to predict wildfires. This prediction problem is framed as three machine learning tasks. Results are compared and analyzed for four different deep learning models to estimate wildfire likelihood. The results demonstrate that deep learning models can successfully identify areas of high fire likelihood using aggregated data about vegetation, weather, and topography with an AUC of 83%.

Zero-Shot Heterogeneous Transfer Learning from Recommender Systems to Cold-Start Search Retrieval

Many recent advances in neural information retrieval models, which predict top-K items given a query, learn directly from a large training set of (query, item) pairs. However, they are often insufficient when there are many previously unseen (query, item) combinations, often referred to as the cold start problem. Furthermore, the search system can be biased towards items that are frequently shown to a query previously, also known as the 'rich get richer' (a.k.a. feedback loop) problem. In light of these problems, we observed that most online content platforms have both a search and a recommender system that, while having heterogeneous input spaces, can be connected through their common output item space and a shared semantic representation. In this paper, we propose a new Zero-Shot Heterogeneous Transfer Learning framework that transfers learned knowledge from the recommender system component to improve the search component of a content platform. First, it learns representations of items and their natural-language features by predicting (item, item) correlation graphs derived from the recommender system as an auxiliary task. Then, the learned representations are transferred to solve the target search retrieval task, performing query-to-item prediction without having seen any (query, item) pairs in training. We conduct online and offline experiments on one of the world's largest search and recommender systems from Google, and present the results and lessons learned. We demonstrate that the proposed approach can achieve high performance on offline search retrieval tasks, and more importantly, achieved significant improvements on relevance and user interactions over the highly-optimized production system in online experiments.

Neural Collaborative Filtering vs. Matrix Factorization Revisited

Embedding based models have been the state of the art in collaborative filtering for over a decade. Traditionally, the dot product or higher order equivalents have been used to combine two or more embeddings, e.g., most notably in matrix factorization. In recent years, it was suggested to replace the dot product with a learned similarity e.g. using a multilayer perceptron (MLP). This approach is often referred to as neural collaborative filtering (NCF). In this work, we revisit the experiments of the NCF paper that popularized learned similarities using MLPs. First, we show that with a proper hyperparameter selection, a simple dot product substantially outperforms the proposed learned similarities. Second, while a MLP can in theory approximate any function, we show that it is non-trivial to learn a dot product with an MLP. Finally, we discuss practical issues that arise when applying MLP based similarities and show that MLPs are too costly to use for item recommendation in production environments while dot products allow to apply very efficient retrieval algorithms. We conclude that MLPs should be used with care as embedding combiner and that dot products might be a better default choice.

Superbloom: Bloom filter meets Transformer

We extend the idea of word pieces in natural language models to machine learning tasks on opaque ids. This is achieved by applying hash functions to map each id to multiple hash tokens in a much smaller space, similarly to a Bloom filter. We show that by applying a multi-layer Transformer to these Bloom filter digests, we are able to obtain models with high accuracy. They outperform models of a similar size without hashing and, to a large degree, models of a much larger size trained using sampled softmax with the same computational budget. Our key observation is that it is important to use a multi-layer Transformer for Bloom filter digests to remove ambiguity in the hashed input. We believe this provides an alternative method to solving problems with large vocabulary size.

Scaling Up Collaborative Filtering Data Sets through Randomized Fractal Expansions

Recommender system research suffers from a disconnect between the size of academic data sets and the scale of industrial production systems. In order to bridge that gap, we propose to generate large-scale user/item interaction data sets by expanding pre-existing public data sets. Our key contribution is a technique that expands user/item incidence matrices matrices to large numbers of rows (users), columns (items), and non-zero values (interactions). The proposed method adapts Kronecker Graph Theory to preserve key higher order statistical properties such as the fat-tailed distribution of user engagements, item popularity, and singular value spectra of user/item interaction matrices. Preserving such properties is key to building large realistic synthetic data sets which in turn can be employed reliably to benchmark recommender systems and the systems employed to train them. We further apply our stochastic expansion algorithm to the binarized MovieLens 20M data set, which comprises 20M interactions between 27K movies and 138K users. The resulting expanded data set has 1.2B ratings, 2.2M users, and 855K items, which can be scaled up or down.

Scalable Realistic Recommendation Datasets through Fractal Expansions

Recommender System research suffers currently from a disconnect between the size of academic data sets and the scale of industrial production systems. In order to bridge that gap we propose to generate more massive user/item interaction data sets by expanding pre-existing public data sets. User/item incidence matrices record interactions between users and items on a given platform as a large sparse matrix whose rows correspond to users and whose columns correspond to items. Our technique expands such matrices to larger numbers of rows (users), columns (items) and non zero values (interactions) while preserving key higher order statistical properties. We adapt the Kronecker Graph Theory to user/item incidence matrices and show that the corresponding fractal expansions preserve the fat-tailed distributions of user engagements, item popularity and singular value spectra of user/item interaction matrices. Preserving such properties is key to building large realistic synthetic data sets which in turn can be employed reliably to benchmark Recommender Systems and the systems employed to train them. We provide algorithms to produce such expansions and apply them to the MovieLens 20 million data set comprising 20 million ratings of 27K movies by 138K users. The resulting expanded data set has 10 billion ratings, 2 million items and 864K users in its smaller version and can be scaled up or down. A larger version features 655 billion ratings, 7 million items and 17 million users.

Efficient Training on Very Large Corpora via Gramian Estimation

We study the problem of learning similarity functions over very large corpora using neural network embedding models. These models are typically trained using SGD with sampling of random observed and unobserved pairs, with a number of samples that grows quadratically with the corpus size, making it expensive to scale to very large corpora. We propose new efficient methods to train these models without having to sample unobserved pairs. Inspired by matrix factorization, our approach relies on adding a global quadratic penalty to all pairs of examples and expressing this term as the matrix-inner-product of two generalized Gramians. We show that the gradient of this term can be efficiently computed by maintaining estimates of the Gramians, and develop variance reduction schemes to improve the quality of the estimates. We conduct large-scale experiments that show a significant improvement in training time and generalization quality compared to traditional sampling methods.