Can LLMs Express Personality Across Cultures? Introducing CulturalPersonas for Evaluating Trait Alignment

As LLMs become central to interactive applications, ranging from tutoring to mental health, the ability to express personality in culturally appropriate ways is increasingly important. While recent works have explored personality evaluation of LLMs, they largely overlook the interplay between culture and personality. To address this, we introduce CulturalPersonas, the first large-scale benchmark with human validation for evaluating LLMs' personality expression in culturally grounded, behaviorally rich contexts. Our dataset spans 3,000 scenario-based questions across six diverse countries, designed to elicit personality through everyday scenarios rooted in local values. We evaluate three LLMs, using both multiple-choice and open-ended response formats. Our results show that CulturalPersonas improves alignment with country-specific human personality distributions (over a 20% reduction in Wasserstein distance across models and countries) and elicits more expressive, culturally coherent outputs compared to existing benchmarks. CulturalPersonas surfaces meaningful modulated trait outputs in response to culturally grounded prompts, offering new directions for aligning LLMs to global norms of behavior. By bridging personality expression and cultural nuance, we envision that CulturalPersonas will pave the way for more socially intelligent and globally adaptive LLMs.

Community Moderation and the New Epistemology of Fact Checking on Social Media

Social media platforms have traditionally relied on internal moderation teams and partnerships with independent fact-checking organizations to identify and flag misleading content. Recently, however, platforms including X (formerly Twitter) and Meta have shifted towards community-driven content moderation by launching their own versions of crowd-sourced fact-checking -- Community Notes. If effectively scaled and governed, such crowd-checking initiatives have the potential to combat misinformation with increased scale and speed as successfully as community-driven efforts once did with spam. Nevertheless, general content moderation, especially for misinformation, is inherently more complex. Public perceptions of truth are often shaped by personal biases, political leanings, and cultural contexts, complicating consensus on what constitutes misleading content. This suggests that community efforts, while valuable, cannot replace the indispensable role of professional fact-checkers. Here we systemically examine the current approaches to misinformation detection across major platforms, explore the emerging role of community-driven moderation, and critically evaluate both the promises and challenges of crowd-checking at scale.

Limited Effectiveness of LLM-based Data Augmentation for COVID-19 Misinformation Stance Detection

Misinformation surrounding emerging outbreaks poses a serious societal threat, making robust countermeasures essential. One promising approach is stance detection (SD), which identifies whether social media posts support or oppose misleading claims. In this work, we finetune classifiers on COVID-19 misinformation SD datasets consisting of claims and corresponding tweets. Specifically, we test controllable misinformation generation (CMG) using large language models (LLMs) as a method for data augmentation. While CMG demonstrates the potential for expanding training datasets, our experiments reveal that performance gains over traditional augmentation methods are often minimal and inconsistent, primarily due to built-in safeguards within LLMs. We release our code and datasets to facilitate further research on misinformation detection and generation.

Network-informed Prompt Engineering against Organized Astroturf Campaigns under Extreme Class Imbalance

Detecting organized political campaigns is of paramount importance in fighting against disinformation on social media. Existing approaches for the identification of such organized actions employ techniques mostly from network science, graph machine learning and natural language processing. Their ultimate goal is to analyze the relationships and interactions (e.g. re-posting) among users and the textual similarities of their posts. Despite their effectiveness in recognizing astroturf campaigns, these methods face significant challenges, notably the class imbalance in available training datasets. To mitigate this issue, recent methods usually resort to data augmentation or increasing the number of positive samples, which may not always be feasible or sufficient in real-world settings. Following a different path, in this paper, we propose a novel framework for identifying astroturf campaigns based solely on large language models (LLMs), introducing a Balanced Retrieval-Augmented Generation (Balanced RAG) component. Our approach first gives both textual information concerning the posts (in our case tweets) and the user interactions of the social network as input to a language model. Then, through prompt engineering and the proposed Balanced RAG method, it effectively detects coordinated disinformation campaigns on X (Twitter). The proposed framework does not require any training or fine-tuning of the language model. Instead, by strategically harnessing the strengths of prompt engineering and Balanced RAG, it facilitates LLMs to overcome the effects of class imbalance and effectively identify coordinated political campaigns. The experimental results demonstrate that by incorporating the proposed prompt engineering and Balanced RAG methods, our framework outperforms the traditional graph-based baselines, achieving 2x-3x improvements in terms of precision, recall and F1 scores.

IOHunter: Graph Foundation Model to Uncover Online Information Operations

Social media platforms have become vital spaces for public discourse, serving as modern agor\'as where a wide range of voices influence societal narratives. However, their open nature also makes them vulnerable to exploitation by malicious actors, including state-sponsored entities, who can conduct information operations (IOs) to manipulate public opinion. The spread of misinformation, false news, and misleading claims threatens democratic processes and societal cohesion, making it crucial to develop methods for the timely detection of inauthentic activity to protect the integrity of online discourse. In this work, we introduce a methodology designed to identify users orchestrating information operations, a.k.a. \textit{IO drivers}, across various influence campaigns. Our framework, named \texttt{IOHunter}, leverages the combined strengths of Language Models and Graph Neural Networks to improve generalization in \emph{supervised}, \emph{scarcely-supervised}, and \emph{cross-IO} contexts. Our approach achieves state-of-the-art performance across multiple sets of IOs originating from six countries, significantly surpassing existing approaches. This research marks a step toward developing Graph Foundation Models specifically tailored for the task of IO detection on social media platforms.

Hybrid Forecasting of Geopolitical Events

Sound decision-making relies on accurate prediction for tangible outcomes ranging from military conflict to disease outbreaks. To improve crowdsourced forecasting accuracy, we developed SAGE, a hybrid forecasting system that combines human and machine generated forecasts. The system provides a platform where users can interact with machine models and thus anchor their judgments on an objective benchmark. The system also aggregates human and machine forecasts weighting both for propinquity and based on assessed skill while adjusting for overconfidence. We present results from the Hybrid Forecasting Competition (HFC) - larger than comparable forecasting tournaments - including 1085 users forecasting 398 real-world forecasting problems over eight months. Our main result is that the hybrid system generated more accurate forecasts compared to a human-only baseline which had no machine generated predictions. We found that skilled forecasters who had access to machine-generated forecasts outperformed those who only viewed historical data. We also demonstrated the inclusion of machine-generated forecasts in our aggregation algorithms improved performance, both in terms of accuracy and scalability. This suggests that hybrid forecasting systems, which potentially require fewer human resources, can be a viable approach for maintaining a competitive level of accuracy over a larger number of forecasting questions.

Political-LLM: Large Language Models in Political Science

In recent years, large language models (LLMs) have been widely adopted in political science tasks such as election prediction, sentiment analysis, policy impact assessment, and misinformation detection. Meanwhile, the need to systematically understand how LLMs can further revolutionize the field also becomes urgent. In this work, we--a multidisciplinary team of researchers spanning computer science and political science--present the first principled framework termed Political-LLM to advance the comprehensive understanding of integrating LLMs into computational political science. Specifically, we first introduce a fundamental taxonomy classifying the existing explorations into two perspectives: political science and computational methodologies. In particular, from the political science perspective, we highlight the role of LLMs in automating predictive and generative tasks, simulating behavior dynamics, and improving causal inference through tools like counterfactual generation; from a computational perspective, we introduce advancements in data preparation, fine-tuning, and evaluation methods for LLMs that are tailored to political contexts. We identify key challenges and future directions, emphasizing the development of domain-specific datasets, addressing issues of bias and fairness, incorporating human expertise, and redefining evaluation criteria to align with the unique requirements of computational political science. Political-LLM seeks to serve as a guidebook for researchers to foster an informed, ethical, and impactful use of Artificial Intelligence in political science. Our online resource is available at: http://political-llm.org/.

Explaining Mixtures of Sources in News Articles

Human writers plan, then write. For large language models (LLMs) to play a role in longer-form article generation, we must understand the planning steps humans make before writing. We explore one kind of planning, source-selection in news, as a case-study for evaluating plans in long-form generation. We ask: why do specific stories call for specific kinds of sources? We imagine a generative process for story writing where a source-selection schema is first selected by a journalist, and then sources are chosen based on categories in that schema. Learning the article's plan means predicting the schema initially chosen by the journalist. Working with professional journalists, we adapt five existing schemata and introduce three new ones to describe journalistic plans for the inclusion of sources in documents. Then, inspired by Bayesian latent-variable modeling, we develop metrics to select the most likely plan, or schema, underlying a story, which we use to compare schemata. We find that two schemata: stance and social affiliation best explain source plans in most documents. However, other schemata like textual entailment explain source plans in factually rich topics like "Science". Finally, we find we can predict the most suitable schema given just the article's headline with reasonable accuracy. We see this as an important case-study for human planning, and provides a framework and approach for evaluating other kinds of plans. We release a corpora, NewsSources, with annotations for 4M articles.

FACT-GPT: Fact-Checking Augmentation via Claim Matching with LLMs

Our society is facing rampant misinformation harming public health and trust. To address the societal challenge, we introduce FACT-GPT, a system leveraging Large Language Models (LLMs) to automate the claim matching stage of fact-checking. FACT-GPT, trained on a synthetic dataset, identifies social media content that aligns with, contradicts, or is irrelevant to previously debunked claims. Our evaluation shows that our specialized LLMs can match the accuracy of larger models in identifying related claims, closely mirroring human judgment. This research provides an automated solution for efficient claim matching, demonstrates the potential of LLMs in supporting fact-checkers, and offers valuable resources for further research in the field.

Social-LLM: Modeling User Behavior at Scale using Language Models and Social Network Data

The proliferation of social network data has unlocked unprecedented opportunities for extensive, data-driven exploration of human behavior. The structural intricacies of social networks offer insights into various computational social science issues, particularly concerning social influence and information diffusion. However, modeling large-scale social network data comes with computational challenges. Though large language models make it easier than ever to model textual content, any advanced network representation methods struggle with scalability and efficient deployment to out-of-sample users. In response, we introduce a novel approach tailored for modeling social network data in user detection tasks. This innovative method integrates localized social network interactions with the capabilities of large language models. Operating under the premise of social network homophily, which posits that socially connected users share similarities, our approach is designed to address these challenges. We conduct a thorough evaluation of our method across seven real-world social network datasets, spanning a diverse range of topics and detection tasks, showcasing its applicability to advance research in computational social science.