Kernel Density Estimation for Multiclass Quantification

Several disciplines, like the social sciences, epidemiology, sentiment analysis, or market research, are interested in knowing the distribution of the classes in a population rather than the individual labels of the members thereof. Quantification is the supervised machine learning task concerned with obtaining accurate predictors of class prevalence, and to do so particularly in the presence of label shift. The distribution-matching (DM) approaches represent one of the most important families among the quantification methods that have been proposed in the literature so far. Current DM approaches model the involved populations by means of histograms of posterior probabilities. In this paper, we argue that their application to the multiclass setting is suboptimal since the histograms become class-specific, thus missing the opportunity to model inter-class information that may exist in the data. We propose a new representation mechanism based on multivariate densities that we model via kernel density estimation (KDE). The experiments we have carried out show our method, dubbed KDEy, yields superior quantification performance with respect to previous DM approaches. We also investigate the KDE-based representation within the maximum likelihood framework and show KDEy often shows superior performance with respect to the expectation-maximization method for quantification, arguably the strongest contender in the quantification arena to date.

Mining Temporal Attack Patterns from Cyberthreat Intelligence Reports

Defending from cyberattacks requires practitioners to operate on high-level adversary behavior. Cyberthreat intelligence (CTI) reports on past cyberattack incidents describe the chain of malicious actions with respect to time. To avoid repeating cyberattack incidents, practitioners must proactively identify and defend against recurring chain of actions - which we refer to as temporal attack patterns. Automatically mining the patterns among actions provides structured and actionable information on the adversary behavior of past cyberattacks. The goal of this paper is to aid security practitioners in prioritizing and proactive defense against cyberattacks by mining temporal attack patterns from cyberthreat intelligence reports. To this end, we propose ChronoCTI, an automated pipeline for mining temporal attack patterns from cyberthreat intelligence (CTI) reports of past cyberattacks. To construct ChronoCTI, we build the ground truth dataset of temporal attack patterns and apply state-of-the-art large language models, natural language processing, and machine learning techniques. We apply ChronoCTI on a set of 713 CTI reports, where we identify 124 temporal attack patterns - which we categorize into nine pattern categories. We identify that the most prevalent pattern category is to trick victim users into executing malicious code to initiate the attack, followed by bypassing the anti-malware system in the victim network. Based on the observed patterns, we advocate organizations to train users about cybersecurity best practices, introduce immutable operating systems with limited functionalities, and enforce multi-user authentications. Moreover, we advocate practitioners to leverage the automated mining capability of ChronoCTI and design countermeasures against the recurring attack patterns.

Performance Evaluation of GPS Trajectory Rasterization Methods

The availability of the Global Positioning System (GPS) trajectory data is increasing along with the availability of different GPS receivers and with the increasing use of various mobility services. GPS trajectory is an important data source which is used in traffic density detection, transport mode detection, mapping data inferences with the use of different methods such as image processing and machine learning methods. While the data size increases, efficient representation of this type of data is becoming difficult to be used in these methods. A common approach is the representation of GPS trajectory information such as average speed, bearing, etc. in raster image form and applying analysis methods. In this study, we evaluate GPS trajectory data rasterization using the spatial join functions of QGIS, PostGIS+QGIS, and our iterative spatial structured grid aggregation implementation coded in the Python programming language. Our implementation is also parallelizable, and this parallelization is also included as the fourth method. According to the results of experiment carried out with an example GPS trajectory dataset, QGIS method and PostGIS+QGIS method showed relatively low performance with respect to our method using the metric of total processing time. PostGIS+QGIS method achieved the best results for spatial join though its total performance decreased quickly while test area size increases. On the other hand, both of our methods' performances decrease directly proportional to GPS point. And our methods' performance can be increased proportional to the increase with the number of processor cores and/or with multiple computing clusters.

Brain-Conditional Multimodal Synthesis: A Survey and Taxonomy

In the era of Artificial Intelligence Generated Content (AIGC), conditional multimodal synthesis technologies (e.g., text-to-image, text-to-video, text-to-audio, etc) are gradually reshaping the natural content in the real world. The key to multimodal synthesis technology is to establish the mapping relationship between different modalities. Brain signals, serving as potential reflections of how the brain interprets external information, exhibit a distinctive One-to-Many correspondence with various external modalities. This correspondence makes brain signals emerge as a promising guiding condition for multimodal content synthesis. Brian-conditional multimodal synthesis refers to decoding brain signals back to perceptual experience, which is crucial for developing practical brain-computer interface systems and unraveling complex mechanisms underlying how the brain perceives and comprehends external stimuli. This survey comprehensively examines the emerging field of AIGC-based Brain-conditional Multimodal Synthesis, termed AIGC-Brain, to delineate the current landscape and future directions. To begin, related brain neuroimaging datasets, functional brain regions, and mainstream generative models are introduced as the foundation of AIGC-Brain decoding and analysis. Next, we provide a comprehensive taxonomy for AIGC-Brain decoding models and present task-specific representative work and detailed implementation strategies to facilitate comparison and in-depth analysis. Quality assessments are then introduced for both qualitative and quantitative evaluation. Finally, this survey explores insights gained, providing current challenges and outlining prospects of AIGC-Brain. Being the inaugural survey in this domain, this paper paves the way for the progress of AIGC-Brain research, offering a foundational overview to guide future work.

On the selection and effectiveness of pseudo-absences for species distribution modeling with deep learning

Species distribution modeling is a highly versatile tool for understanding the intricate relationship between environmental conditions and species occurrences. However, the available data often lacks information on confirmed species absence and is limited to opportunistically sampled, presence-only observations. To overcome this limitation, a common approach is to employ pseudo-absences, which are specific geographic locations designated as negative samples. While pseudo-absences are well-established for single-species distribution models, their application in the context of multi-species neural networks remains underexplored. Notably, the significant class imbalance between species presences and pseudo-absences is often left unaddressed. Moreover, the existence of different types of pseudo-absences (e.g., random and target-group background points) adds complexity to the selection process. Determining the optimal combination of pseudo-absences types is difficult and depends on the characteristics of the data, particularly considering that certain types of pseudo-absences can be used to mitigate geographic biases. In this paper, we demonstrate that these challenges can be effectively tackled by integrating pseudo-absences in the training of multi-species neural networks through modifications to the loss function. This adjustment involves assigning different weights to the distinct terms of the loss function, thereby addressing both the class imbalance and the choice of pseudo-absence types. Additionally, we propose a strategy to set these loss weights using spatial block cross-validation with presence-only data. We evaluate our approach using a benchmark dataset containing independent presence-absence data from six different regions and report improved results when compared to competing approaches.

Goal-Oriented Communication, Estimation, and Control over Bidirectional Wireless Links

We consider a wireless networked control system (WNCS) with bidirectional imperfect links for real-time applications such as smart grids. To maintain the stability of WNCS, captured by the probability that plant state violates preset values, at minimal cost, heterogeneous physical processes are monitored by multiple sensors. This status information, such as dynamic plant state and Markov Process-based context information, is then received/estimated by the controller for remote control. However, scheduling multiple sensors and designing the controller with limited resources is challenging due to their coupling, delay, and transmission loss. We formulate a Constrained Markov Decision Problem (CMDP) to minimize violation probability with cost constraints. We reveal the relationship between the goal and different updating actions by analyzing the significance of information that incorporates goal-related usefulness and contextual importance. Subsequently, a goal-oriented deterministic scheduling policy is proposed. Two sensing-assisted control strategies and a control-aware estimation policy are proposed to improve the violation probability-cost tradeoff, integrated with the scheduling policy to form a goal-oriented co-design framework. Additionally, we explore retransmission in downlink transmission and qualitatively analyze its preference scenario. Simulation results demonstrate that the proposed goal-oriented co-design policy outperforms previous work in simultaneously reducing violation probability and cost

Active Wildfires Detection and Dynamic Escape Routes Planning for Humans through Information Fusion between Drones and Satellites

UAVs are playing an increasingly important role in the field of wilderness rescue by virtue of their flexibility. This paper proposes a fusion of UAV vision technology and satellite image analysis technology for active wildfires detection and road networks extraction of wildfire areas and real-time dynamic escape route planning for people in distress. Firstly, the fire source location and the segmentation of smoke and flames are targeted based on Sentinel 2 satellite imagery. Secondly, the road segmentation and the road condition assessment are performed by D-linkNet and NDVI values in the central area of the fire source by UAV. Finally, the dynamic optimal route planning for humans in real time is performed by the weighted A* algorithm in the road network with the dynamic fire spread model. Taking the Chongqing wildfire on August 24, 2022, as a case study, the results demonstrate that the dynamic escape route planning algorithm can provide an optimal real-time navigation path for humans in the presence of fire through the information fusion of UAVs and satellites.

Tractable Function-Space Variational Inference in Bayesian Neural Networks

Reliable predictive uncertainty estimation plays an important role in enabling the deployment of neural networks to safety-critical settings. A popular approach for estimating the predictive uncertainty of neural networks is to define a prior distribution over the network parameters, infer an approximate posterior distribution, and use it to make stochastic predictions. However, explicit inference over neural network parameters makes it difficult to incorporate meaningful prior information about the data-generating process into the model. In this paper, we pursue an alternative approach. Recognizing that the primary object of interest in most settings is the distribution over functions induced by the posterior distribution over neural network parameters, we frame Bayesian inference in neural networks explicitly as inferring a posterior distribution over functions and propose a scalable function-space variational inference method that allows incorporating prior information and results in reliable predictive uncertainty estimates. We show that the proposed method leads to state-of-the-art uncertainty estimation and predictive performance on a range of prediction tasks and demonstrate that it performs well on a challenging safety-critical medical diagnosis task in which reliable uncertainty estimation is essential.

Learning in Online Principal-Agent Interactions: The Power of Menus

We study a ubiquitous learning challenge in online principal-agent problems during which the principal learns the agent's private information from the agent's revealed preferences in historical interactions. This paradigm includes important special cases such as pricing and contract design, which have been widely studied in recent literature. However, existing work considers the case where the principal can only choose a single strategy at every round to interact with the agent and then observe the agent's revealed preference through their actions. In this paper, we extend this line of study to allow the principal to offer a menu of strategies to the agent and learn additionally from observing the agent's selection from the menu. We provide a thorough investigation of several online principal-agent problem settings and characterize their sample complexities, accompanied by the corresponding algorithms we have developed. We instantiate this paradigm to several important design problems $-$ including Stackelberg (security) games, contract design, and information design. Finally, we also explore the connection between our findings and existing results about online learning in Stackelberg games, and we offer a solution that can overcome a key hard instance of Peng et al. (2019).

Geometry Depth Consistency in RGBD Relative Pose Estimation

Relative pose estimation for RGBD cameras is crucial in a number of applications. Previous approaches either rely on the RGB aspect of the images to estimate pose thus not fully making use of depth in the estimation process or estimate pose from the 3D cloud of points that each image produces, thus not making full use of RGB information. This paper shows that if one pair of correspondences is hypothesized from the RGB-based ranked-ordered correspondence list, then the space of remaining correspondences is restricted to corresponding pairs of curves nested around the hypothesized correspondence, implicitly capturing depth consistency. This simple Geometric Depth Constraint (GDC) significantly reduces potential matches. In effect this becomes a filter on possible correspondences that helps reduce the number of outliers and thus expedites RANSAC significantly. As such, the same budget of time allows for more RANSAC iterations and therefore additional robustness and a significant speedup. In addition, the paper proposed a Nested RANSAC approach that also speeds up the process, as shown through experiments on TUM, ICL-NUIM, and RGBD Scenes v2 datasets.