SCRAG: Social Computing-Based Retrieval Augmented Generation for Community Response Forecasting in Social Media Environments

This paper introduces SCRAG, a prediction framework inspired by social computing, designed to forecast community responses to real or hypothetical social media posts. SCRAG can be used by public relations specialists (e.g., to craft messaging in ways that avoid unintended misinterpretations) or public figures and influencers (e.g., to anticipate social responses), among other applications related to public sentiment prediction, crisis management, and social what-if analysis. While large language models (LLMs) have achieved remarkable success in generating coherent and contextually rich text, their reliance on static training data and susceptibility to hallucinations limit their effectiveness at response forecasting in dynamic social media environments. SCRAG overcomes these challenges by integrating LLMs with a Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG) technique rooted in social computing. Specifically, our framework retrieves (i) historical responses from the target community to capture their ideological, semantic, and emotional makeup, and (ii) external knowledge from sources such as news articles to inject time-sensitive context. This information is then jointly used to forecast the responses of the target community to new posts or narratives. Extensive experiments across six scenarios on the X platform (formerly Twitter), tested with various embedding models and LLMs, demonstrate over 10% improvements on average in key evaluation metrics. A concrete example further shows its effectiveness in capturing diverse ideologies and nuances. Our work provides a social computing tool for applications where accurate and concrete insights into community responses are crucial.

Can Large Language Models Help Multimodal Language Analysis? MMLA: A Comprehensive Benchmark

Multimodal language analysis is a rapidly evolving field that leverages multiple modalities to enhance the understanding of high-level semantics underlying human conversational utterances. Despite its significance, little research has investigated the capability of multimodal large language models (MLLMs) to comprehend cognitive-level semantics. In this paper, we introduce MMLA, a comprehensive benchmark specifically designed to address this gap. MMLA comprises over 61K multimodal utterances drawn from both staged and real-world scenarios, covering six core dimensions of multimodal semantics: intent, emotion, dialogue act, sentiment, speaking style, and communication behavior. We evaluate eight mainstream branches of LLMs and MLLMs using three methods: zero-shot inference, supervised fine-tuning, and instruction tuning. Extensive experiments reveal that even fine-tuned models achieve only about 60%~70% accuracy, underscoring the limitations of current MLLMs in understanding complex human language. We believe that MMLA will serve as a solid foundation for exploring the potential of large language models in multimodal language analysis and provide valuable resources to advance this field. The datasets and code are open-sourced at https://github.com/thuiar/MMLA.

Modeling Regime Structure and Informational Drivers of Stock Market Volatility via the Financial Chaos Index

This paper investigates the structural dynamics of stock market volatility through the Financial Chaos Index, a tensor- and eigenvalue-based measure designed to capture realized volatility via mutual fluctuations among asset prices. Motivated by empirical evidence of regime-dependent volatility behavior and perceptual time dilation during financial crises, we develop a regime-switching framework based on the Modified Lognormal Power-Law distribution. Analysis of the FCIX from January 1990 to December 2023 identifies three distinct market regimes, low-chaos, intermediate-chaos, and high-chaos, each characterized by differing levels of systemic stress, statistical dispersion and persistence characteristics. Building upon the segmented regime structure, we further examine the informational forces that shape forward-looking market expectations. Using sentiment-based predictors derived from the Equity Market Volatility tracker, we employ an elastic net regression model to forecast implied volatility, as proxied by the VIX index. Our findings indicate that shifts in macroeconomic, financial, policy, and geopolitical uncertainty exhibit strong predictive power for volatility dynamics across regimes. Together, these results offer a unified empirical perspective on how systemic uncertainty governs both the realized evolution of financial markets and the anticipatory behavior embedded in implied volatility measures.

AI Approaches to Qualitative and Quantitative News Analytics on NATO Unity

The paper considers the use of GPT models with retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) for qualitative and quantitative analytics on NATO sentiments, NATO unity and NATO Article 5 trust opinion scores in different web sources: news sites found via Google Search API, Youtube videos with comments, and Reddit discussions. A RAG approach using GPT-4.1 model was applied to analyse news where NATO related topics were discussed. Two levels of RAG analytics were used: on the first level, the GPT model generates qualitative news summaries and quantitative opinion scores using zero-shot prompts; on the second level, the GPT model generates the summary of news summaries. Quantitative news opinion scores generated by the GPT model were analysed using Bayesian regression to get trend lines. The distributions found for the regression parameters make it possible to analyse an uncertainty in specified news opinion score trends. Obtained results show a downward trend for analysed scores of opinion related to NATO unity. This approach does not aim to conduct real political analysis; rather, it consider AI based approaches which can be used for further analytics as a part of a complex analytical approach. The obtained results demonstrate that the use of GPT models for news analysis can give informative qualitative and quantitative analytics, providing important insights. The dynamic model based on neural ordinary differential equations was considered for modelling public opinions. This approach makes it possible to analyse different scenarios for evolving public opinions.

Tales of the 2025 Los Angeles Fire: Hotwash for Public Health Concerns in Reddit via LLM-Enhanced Topic Modeling

Wildfires have become increasingly frequent, irregular, and severe in recent years. Understanding how affected populations perceive and respond during wildfire crises is critical for timely and empathetic disaster response. Social media platforms offer a crowd-sourced channel to capture evolving public discourse, providing hyperlocal information and insight into public sentiment. This study analyzes Reddit discourse during the 2025 Los Angeles wildfires, spanning from the onset of the disaster to full containment. We collect 385 posts and 114,879 comments related to the Palisades and Eaton fires. We adopt topic modeling methods to identify the latent topics, enhanced by large language models (LLMs) and human-in-the-loop (HITL) refinement. Furthermore, we develop a hierarchical framework to categorize latent topics, consisting of two main categories, Situational Awareness (SA) and Crisis Narratives (CN). The volume of SA category closely aligns with real-world fire progressions, peaking within the first 2-5 days as the fires reach the maximum extent. The most frequent co-occurring category set of public health and safety, loss and damage, and emergency resources expands on a wide range of health-related latent topics, including environmental health, occupational health, and one health. Grief signals and mental health risks consistently accounted for 60 percentage and 40 percentage of CN instances, respectively, with the highest total volume occurring at night. This study contributes the first annotated social media dataset on the 2025 LA fires, and introduces a scalable multi-layer framework that leverages topic modeling for crisis discourse analysis. By identifying persistent public health concerns, our results can inform more empathetic and adaptive strategies for disaster response, public health communication, and future research in comparable climate-related disaster events.

Exploring Cultural Nuances in Emotion Perception Across 15 African Languages

Understanding how emotions are expressed across languages is vital for building culturally-aware and inclusive NLP systems. However, emotion expression in African languages is understudied, limiting the development of effective emotion detection tools in these languages. In this work, we present a cross-linguistic analysis of emotion expression in 15 African languages. We examine four key dimensions of emotion representation: text length, sentiment polarity, emotion co-occurrence, and intensity variations. Our findings reveal diverse language-specific patterns in emotional expression -- with Somali texts typically longer, while others like IsiZulu and Algerian Arabic show more concise emotional expression. We observe a higher prevalence of negative sentiment in several Nigerian languages compared to lower negativity in languages like IsiXhosa. Further, emotion co-occurrence analysis demonstrates strong cross-linguistic associations between specific emotion pairs (anger-disgust, sadness-fear), suggesting universal psychological connections. Intensity distributions show multimodal patterns with significant variations between language families; Bantu languages display similar yet distinct profiles, while Afroasiatic languages and Nigerian Pidgin demonstrate wider intensity ranges. These findings highlight the need for language-specific approaches to emotion detection while identifying opportunities for transfer learning across related languages.

Rhythm of Opinion: A Hawkes-Graph Framework for Dynamic Propagation Analysis

The rapid development of social media has significantly reshaped the dynamics of public opinion, resulting in complex interactions that traditional models fail to effectively capture. To address this challenge, we propose an innovative approach that integrates multi-dimensional Hawkes processes with Graph Neural Network, modeling opinion propagation dynamics among nodes in a social network while considering the intricate hierarchical relationships between comments. The extended multi-dimensional Hawkes process captures the hierarchical structure, multi-dimensional interactions, and mutual influences across different topics, forming a complex propagation network. Moreover, recognizing the lack of high-quality datasets capable of comprehensively capturing the evolution of public opinion dynamics, we introduce a new dataset, VISTA. It includes 159 trending topics, corresponding to 47,207 posts, 327,015 second-level comments, and 29,578 third-level comments, covering diverse domains such as politics, entertainment, sports, health, and medicine. The dataset is annotated with detailed sentiment labels across 11 categories and clearly defined hierarchical relationships. When combined with our method, it offers strong interpretability by linking sentiment propagation to the comment hierarchy and temporal evolution. Our approach provides a robust baseline for future research.

Detecting Instruction Fine-tuning Attack on Language Models with Influence Function

Instruction fine-tuning attacks pose a significant threat to large language models (LLMs) by subtly embedding poisoned data in fine-tuning datasets, which can trigger harmful or unintended responses across a range of tasks. This undermines model alignment and poses security risks in real-world deployment. In this work, we present a simple and effective approach to detect and mitigate such attacks using influence functions, a classical statistical tool adapted for machine learning interpretation. Traditionally, the high computational costs of influence functions have limited their application to large models and datasets. The recent Eigenvalue-Corrected Kronecker-Factored Approximate Curvature (EK-FAC) approximation method enables efficient influence score computation, making it feasible for large-scale analysis. We are the first to apply influence functions for detecting language model instruction fine-tuning attacks on large-scale datasets, as both the instruction fine-tuning attack on language models and the influence calculation approximation technique are relatively new. Our large-scale empirical evaluation of influence functions on 50,000 fine-tuning examples and 32 tasks reveals a strong association between influence scores and sentiment. Building on this, we introduce a novel sentiment transformation combined with influence functions to detect and remove critical poisons -- poisoned data points that skew model predictions. Removing these poisons (only 1% of total data) recovers model performance to near-clean levels, demonstrating the effectiveness and efficiency of our approach. Artifact is available at https://github.com/lijiawei20161002/Poison-Detection. WARNING: This paper contains offensive data examples.

Beyond the Script: Testing LLMs for Authentic Patient Communication Styles in Healthcare

Effective patient communication is pivotal in healthcare, yet traditional medical training often lacks exposure to diverse, challenging interpersonal dynamics. To bridge this gap, this study proposes the use of Large Language Models (LLMs) to simulate authentic patient communication styles, specifically the "accuser" and "rationalizer" personas derived from the Satir model, while also ensuring multilingual applicability to accommodate diverse cultural contexts and enhance accessibility for medical professionals. Leveraging advanced prompt engineering, including behavioral prompts, author's notes, and stubbornness mechanisms, we developed virtual patients (VPs) that embody nuanced emotional and conversational traits. Medical professionals evaluated these VPs, rating their authenticity (accuser: $3.8 \pm 1.0$; rationalizer: $3.7 \pm 0.8$ on a 5-point Likert scale (from one to five)) and correctly identifying their styles. Emotion analysis revealed distinct profiles: the accuser exhibited pain, anger, and distress, while the rationalizer displayed contemplation and calmness, aligning with predefined, detailed patient description including medical history. Sentiment scores (on a scale from zero to nine) further validated these differences in the communication styles, with the accuser adopting negative ($3.1 \pm 0.6$) and the rationalizer more neutral ($4.0 \pm 0.4$) tone. These results underscore LLMs' capability to replicate complex communication styles, offering transformative potential for medical education. This approach equips trainees to navigate challenging clinical scenarios by providing realistic, adaptable patient interactions, enhancing empathy and diagnostic acumen. Our findings advocate for AI-driven tools as scalable, cost-effective solutions to cultivate nuanced communication skills, setting a foundation for future innovations in healthcare training.

Patients Speak, AI Listens: LLM-based Analysis of Online Reviews Uncovers Key Drivers for Urgent Care Satisfaction

Investigating the public experience of urgent care facilities is essential for promoting community healthcare development. Traditional survey methods often fall short due to limited scope, time, and spatial coverage. Crowdsourcing through online reviews or social media offers a valuable approach to gaining such insights. With recent advancements in large language models (LLMs), extracting nuanced perceptions from reviews has become feasible. This study collects Google Maps reviews across the DMV and Florida areas and conducts prompt engineering with the GPT model to analyze the aspect-based sentiment of urgent care. We first analyze the geospatial patterns of various aspects, including interpersonal factors, operational efficiency, technical quality, finances, and facilities. Next, we determine Census Block Group(CBG)-level characteristics underpinning differences in public perception, including population density, median income, GINI Index, rent-to-income ratio, household below poverty rate, no insurance rate, and unemployment rate. Our results show that interpersonal factors and operational efficiency emerge as the strongest determinants of patient satisfaction in urgent care, while technical quality, finances, and facilities show no significant independent effects when adjusted for in multivariate models. Among socioeconomic and demographic factors, only population density demonstrates a significant but modest association with patient ratings, while the remaining factors exhibit no significant correlations. Overall, this study highlights the potential of crowdsourcing to uncover the key factors that matter to residents and provide valuable insights for stakeholders to improve public satisfaction with urgent care.