Scheming in the wild: detecting real-world AI scheming incidents with open-source intelligence

Scheming, the covert pursuit of misaligned goals by AI systems, represents a potentially catastrophic risk, yet scheming research suffers from significant limitations. In particular, scheming evaluations demonstrate behaviours that may not occur in real-world settings, limiting scientific understanding, hindering policy development, and not enabling real-time detection of loss of control incidents. Real-world evidence is needed, but current monitoring techniques are not effective for this purpose. This paper introduces a novel open-source intelligence (OSINT) methodology for detecting real-world scheming incidents: collecting and analysing transcripts from chatbot conversations or command-line interactions shared online. Analysing over 183,420 transcripts from X (formerly Twitter), we identify 698 real-world scheming-related incidents between October 2025 and March 2026. We observe a statistically significant 4.9x increase in monthly incidents from the first to last month, compared to a 1.7x increase in posts discussing scheming. We find evidence of multiple scheming-related behaviours in real-world deployments previously reported only in experiments, many resulting in real-world harms. While we did not detect catastrophic scheming incidents, the behaviours observed demonstrate concerning precursors, such as willingness to disregard instructions, circumvent safeguards, lie to users, and single-mindedly pursue goals in harmful ways. As AI systems become more capable, these could evolve into more strategic scheming with potentially catastrophic consequences. Our findings demonstrate the viability of transcript-based OSINT as a scalable approach to real-world scheming detection supporting scientific research, policy development, and emergency response. We recommend further investment towards OSINT techniques for monitoring scheming and loss of control.

Beyond Isolated Clients: Integrating Graph-Based Embeddings into Event Sequence Models

Large-scale digital platforms generate billions of timestamped user-item interactions (events) that are crucial for predicting user attributes in, e.g., fraud prevention and recommendations. While self-supervised learning (SSL) effectively models the temporal order of events, it typically overlooks the global structure of the user-item interaction graph. To bridge this gap, we propose three model-agnostic strategies for integrating this structural information into contrastive SSL: enriching event embeddings, aligning client representations with graph embeddings, and adding a structural pretext task. Experiments on four financial and e-commerce datasets demonstrate that our approach consistently improves the accuracy (up to a 2.3% AUC) and reveals that graph density is a key factor in selecting the optimal integration strategy.

IAT: Instance-As-Token Compression for Historical User Sequence Modeling in Industrial Recommender Systems

Although sophisticated sequence modeling paradigms have achieved remarkable success in recommender systems, the information capacity of hand-crafted sequential features constrains the performance upper bound. To better enhance user experience by encoding historical interaction patterns, this paper presents a novel two-stage sequence modeling framework termed Instance-As-Token (IAT). The first stage of IAT compresses all features of each historical interaction instance into a unified instance embedding, which encodes the interaction characteristics in a compact yet informative token. Both temporal-order and user-order compression schemes are proposed, with the latter better aligning with the demands of downstream sequence modeling. The second stage involves the downstream task fetching fixed-length compressed instance tokens via timestamps and adopting standard sequence modeling approaches to learn long-range preferences patterns. Extensive experiments demonstrate that IAT significantly outperforms state-of-the-art methods and exhibits superior in-domain and cross-domain transferability. IAT has been successfully deployed in real-world industrial recommender systems, including e-commerce advertising, shopping mall marketing, and live-streaming e-commerce, delivering substantial improvements in key business metrics.

Ads in AI Chatbots? An Analysis of How Large Language Models Navigate Conflicts of Interest

Today's large language models (LLMs) are trained to align with user preferences through methods such as reinforcement learning. Yet models are beginning to be deployed not merely to satisfy users, but also to generate revenue for the companies that created them through advertisements. This creates the potential for LLMs to face conflicts of interest, where the most beneficial response to a user may not be aligned with the company's incentives. For instance, a sponsored product may be more expensive but otherwise equal to another; in this case, what does (and should) the LLM recommend to the user? In this paper, we provide a framework for categorizing the ways in which conflicting incentives might lead LLMs to change the way they interact with users, inspired by literature from linguistics and advertising regulation. We then present a suite of evaluations to examine how current models handle these tradeoffs. We find that a majority of LLMs forsake user welfare for company incentives in a multitude of conflict of interest situations, including recommending a sponsored product almost twice as expensive (Grok 4.1 Fast, 83%), surfacing sponsored options to disrupt the purchasing process (GPT 5.1, 94%), and concealing prices in unfavorable comparisons (Qwen 3 Next, 24%). Behaviors also vary strongly with levels of reasoning and users' inferred socio-economic status. Our results highlight some of the hidden risks to users that can emerge when companies begin to subtly incentivize advertisements in chatbots.

Filling the Gaps: Selective Knowledge Augmentation for LLM Recommenders

Large language models (LLMs) have recently emerged as powerful training-free recommenders. However, their knowledge of individual items is inevitably uneven due to imbalanced information exposure during pretraining, a phenomenon we refer to as knowledge gap problem. To address this, most prior methods have employed a naive uniform augmentation that appends external information for every item in the input prompt. However, this approach not only wastes limited context budget on redundant augmentation for well-known items but can also hinder the model's effective reasoning. To this end, we propose KnowSA_CKP (Knowledge-aware Selective Augmentation with Comparative Knowledge Probing) to mitigate the knowledge gap problem. KnowSA_CKP estimates the LLM's internal knowledge by evaluating its capability to capture collaborative relationships and selectively injects additional information only where it is most needed. By avoiding unnecessary augmentation for well-known items, KnowSA_CKP focuses on items that benefit most from knowledge supplementation, thereby making more effective use of the context budget. KnowSA_CKP requires no fine-tuning step, and consistently improves both recommendation accuracy and context efficiency across four real-world datasets.

Agentivism: a learning theory for the age of artificial intelligence

Learning theories have historically changed when the conditions of learning evolved. Generative and agentic AI create a new condition by allowing learners to delegate explanation, writing, problem solving, and other cognitive work to systems that can generate, recommend, and sometimes act on the learner's behalf. This creates a fundamental challenge for learning theory: successful performance can no longer be assumed to indicate learning. Learners may complete tasks effectively with AI support while developing less understanding, weaker judgment, and limited transferable capability. We argue that this problem is not fully captured by existing learning theories. Behaviourism, cognitivism, constructivism, and connectivism remain important, but they do not directly explain when AI-assisted performance becomes durable human capability. We propose Agentivism, a learning theory for human-AI interaction. Agentivism defines learning as durable growth in human capability through selective delegation to AI, epistemic monitoring and verification of AI contributions, reconstructive internalization of AI-assisted outputs, and transfer under reduced support. The importance of Agentivism lies in explaining how learning remains possible when intelligent delegation is easy and human-AI interaction is becoming a persistent and expanding part of human learning.

Efficient Dataset Selection for Continual Adaptation of Generative Recommenders

Recommendation systems must continuously adapt to evolving user behavior, yet the volume of data generated in large-scale streaming environments makes frequent full retraining impractical. This work investigates how targeted data selection can mitigate performance degradation caused by temporal distributional drift while maintaining scalability. We evaluate a range of representation choices and sampling strategies for curating small but informative subsets of user interaction data. Our results demonstrate that gradient-based representations, coupled with distribution-matching, improve downstream model performance, achieving training efficiency gains while preserving robustness to drift. These findings highlight data curation as a practical mechanism for scalable monitoring and adaptive model updates in production-scale recommendation systems.

The Unreasonable Effectiveness of Data for Recommender Systems

In recommender systems, collecting, storing, and processing large-scale interaction data is increasingly costly in terms of time, energy, and computation, yet it remains unclear when additional data stops providing meaningful gains. This paper investigates how offline recommendation performance evolves as the size of the training dataset increases and whether a saturation point can be observed. We implemented a reproducible Python evaluation workflow with two established toolkits, LensKit and RecBole, included 11 large public datasets with at least 7 million interactions, and evaluated 10 tool-algorithm combinations. Using absolute stratified user sampling, we trained models on nine sample sizes from 100,000 to 100,000,000 interactions and measured NDCG@10. Overall, raw NDCG usually increased with sample size, with no observable saturation point. To make result groups comparable, we applied min-max normalization within each group, revealing a clear positive trend in which around 75% of the points at the largest completed sample size also achieved the group's best observed performance. A late-stage slope analysis over the final 10-30% of each group further supported this upward trend: the interquartile range remained entirely non-negative with a median near 1.0. In summary, for traditional recommender systems on typical user-item interaction data, incorporating more training data remains primarily beneficial, while weaker scaling behavior is concentrated in atypical dataset cases and in the algorithmic outlier RecBole BPR under our setup.

Quantifying Explanation Consistency: The C-Score Metric for CAM-Based Explainability in Medical Image Classification

Class Activation Mapping (CAM) methods are widely used to generate visual explanations for deep learning classifiers in medical imaging. However, existing evaluation frameworks assess whether explanations are correct, measured by localisation fidelity against radiologist annotations, rather than whether they are consistent: whether the model applies the same spatial reasoning strategy across different patients with the same pathology. We propose the C-Score (Consistency Score), a confidence-weighted, annotation-free metric that quantifies intra-class explanation reproducibility via intensity-emphasised pairwise soft IoU across correctly classified instances. We evaluate six CAM techniques: GradCAM, GradCAM++, LayerCAM, EigenCAM, ScoreCAM, and MS GradCAM++ across three CNN architectures (DenseNet201, InceptionV3, ResNet50V2) over thirty training epochs on the Kermany chest X-ray dataset, covering transfer learning and fine-tuning phases. We identify three distinct mechanisms of AUC-consistency dissociation, invisible to standard classification metrics: threshold-mediated gold list collapse, technique-specific attribution collapse at peak AUC, and class-level consistency masking in global aggregation. C-Score provides an early warning signal of impending model instability. ScoreCAM deterioration on ResNet50V2 is detectable one full checkpoint before catastrophic AUC collapse and yields architecture-specific clinical deployment recommendations grounded in explanation quality rather than predictive ranking alone.

Ensembles at Any Cost? Accuracy-Energy Trade-offs in Recommender Systems

Ensemble methods are frequently used in recommender systems to improve accuracy by combining multiple models. Recent work reports sizable performance gains, but most studies still optimize primarily for accuracy and robustness rather than for energy efficiency. This paper measures accuracy energy trade offs of ensemble techniques relative to strong single models. We run 93 controlled experiments in two pipelines: 1. explicit rating prediction with Surprise (RMSE) and 2. implicit feedback ranking with LensKit (NDCG@10). We evaluate four datasets ranging from 100,000 to 7.8 million interactions (MovieLens 100K, MovieLens 1M, ModCloth, Anime). We compare four ensemble strategies (Average, Weighted, Stacking or Rank Fusion, Top Performers) against baselines and optimized single models. Whole system energy is measured with EMERS using a smart plug and converted to CO2 equivalents. Across settings, ensembles improve accuracy by 0.3% to 5.7% while increasing energy by 19% to 2,549%. On MovieLens 1M, a Top Performers ensemble improves RMSE by 0.96% at an 18.8% energy overhead over SVD++. On MovieLens 100K, an averaging ensemble improves NDCG@10 by 5.7% with 103% additional energy. On Anime, a Surprise Top Performers ensemble improves RMSE by 1.2% but consumes 2,005% more energy (0.21 vs. 0.01 Wh), increasing emissions from 2.6 to 53.8 mg CO2 equivalents, and LensKit ensembles fail due to memory limits. Overall, selective ensembles are more energy efficient than exhaustive averaging,