Markov Decision Processes with Noisy State Observation

This paper addresses the challenge of a particular class of noisy state observations in Markov Decision Processes (MDPs), a common issue in various real-world applications. We focus on modeling this uncertainty through a confusion matrix that captures the probabilities of misidentifying the true state. Our primary goal is to estimate the inherent measurement noise, and to this end, we propose two novel algorithmic approaches. The first, the method of second-order repetitive actions, is designed for efficient noise estimation within a finite time window, providing identifiable conditions for system analysis. The second approach comprises a family of Bayesian algorithms, which we thoroughly analyze and compare in terms of performance and limitations. We substantiate our theoretical findings with simulations, demonstrating the effectiveness of our methods in different scenarios, particularly highlighting their behavior in environments with varying stationary distributions. Our work advances the understanding of reinforcement learning in noisy environments, offering robust techniques for more accurate state estimation in MDPs.

Convex Methods for Constrained Linear Bandits

Recently, bandit optimization has received significant attention in real-world safety-critical systems that involve repeated interactions with humans. While there exist various algorithms with performance guarantees in the literature, practical implementation of the algorithms has not received as much attention. This work presents a comprehensive study on the computational aspects of safe bandit algorithms, specifically safe linear bandits, by introducing a framework that leverages convex programming tools to create computationally efficient policies. In particular, we first characterize the properties of the optimal policy for safe linear bandit problem and then propose an end-to-end pipeline of safe linear bandit algorithms that only involves solving convex problems. We also numerically evaluate the performance of our proposed methods.

Shape-Based Approach to Household Load Curve Clustering and Prediction

Consumer Demand Response (DR) is an important research and industry problem, which seeks to categorize, predict and modify consumer's energy consumption. Unfortunately, traditional clustering methods have resulted in many hundreds of clusters, with a given consumer often associated with several clusters, making it difficult to classify consumers into stable representative groups and to predict individual energy consumption patterns. In this paper, we present a shape-based approach that better classifies and predicts consumer energy consumption behavior at the household level. The method is based on Dynamic Time Warping. DTW seeks an optimal alignment between energy consumption patterns reflecting the effect of hidden patterns of regular consumer behavior. Using real consumer 24-hour load curves from Opower Corporation, our method results in a 50% reduction in the number of representative groups and an improvement in prediction accuracy measured under DTW distance. We extend the approach to estimate which electrical devices will be used and in which hours.