WildfireGPT: Tailored Large Language Model for Wildfire Analysis

The recent advancement of large language models (LLMs) represents a transformational capability at the frontier of artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML). However, LLMs are generalized models, trained on extensive text corpus, and often struggle to provide context-specific information, particularly in areas requiring specialized knowledge such as wildfire details within the broader context of climate change. For decision-makers and policymakers focused on wildfire resilience and adaptation, it is crucial to obtain responses that are not only precise but also domain-specific, rather than generic. To that end, we developed WildfireGPT, a prototype LLM agent designed to transform user queries into actionable insights on wildfire risks. We enrich WildfireGPT by providing additional context such as climate projections and scientific literature to ensure its information is current, relevant, and scientifically accurate. This enables WildfireGPT to be an effective tool for delivering detailed, user-specific insights on wildfire risks to support a diverse set of end users, including researchers, engineers, urban planners, emergency managers, and infrastructure operators.

A Comparative Study of Loss Functions: Traffic Predictions in Regular and Congestion Scenarios

Spatiotemporal graph neural networks have achieved state-of-the-art performance in traffic forecasting. However, they often struggle to forecast congestion accurately due to the limitations of traditional loss functions. While accurate forecasting of regular traffic conditions is crucial, a reliable AI system must also accurately forecast congestion scenarios to maintain safe and efficient transportation. In this paper, we explore various loss functions inspired by heavy tail analysis and imbalanced classification problems to address this issue. We evaluate the efficacy of these loss functions in forecasting traffic speed, with an emphasis on congestion scenarios. Through extensive experiments on real-world traffic datasets, we discovered that when optimizing for Mean Absolute Error (MAE), the MAE-Focal Loss function stands out as the most effective. When optimizing Mean Squared Error (MSE), Gumbel Loss proves to be the superior choice. These choices effectively forecast traffic congestion events without compromising the accuracy of regular traffic speed forecasts. This research enhances deep learning models' capabilities in forecasting sudden speed changes due to congestion and underscores the need for more research in this direction. By elevating the accuracy of congestion forecasting, we advocate for AI systems that are reliable, secure, and resilient in practical traffic management scenarios.

Predicting the Future of AI with AI: High-quality link prediction in an exponentially growing knowledge network

A tool that could suggest new personalized research directions and ideas by taking insights from the scientific literature could significantly accelerate the progress of science. A field that might benefit from such an approach is artificial intelligence (AI) research, where the number of scientific publications has been growing exponentially over the last years, making it challenging for human researchers to keep track of the progress. Here, we use AI techniques to predict the future research directions of AI itself. We develop a new graph-based benchmark based on real-world data -- the Science4Cast benchmark, which aims to predict the future state of an evolving semantic network of AI. For that, we use more than 100,000 research papers and build up a knowledge network with more than 64,000 concept nodes. We then present ten diverse methods to tackle this task, ranging from pure statistical to pure learning methods. Surprisingly, the most powerful methods use a carefully curated set of network features, rather than an end-to-end AI approach. It indicates a great potential that can be unleashed for purely ML approaches without human knowledge. Ultimately, better predictions of new future research directions will be a crucial component of more advanced research suggestion tools.

Improving random walk rankings with feature selection and imputation

The Science4cast Competition consists of predicting new links in a semantic network, with each node representing a concept and each edge representing a link proposed by a paper relating two concepts. This network contains information from 1994-2017, with a discretization of days (which represents the publication date of the underlying papers). Team Hash Brown's final submission, \emph{ee5a}, achieved a score of 0.92738 on the test set. Our team's score ranks \emph{second place}, 0.01 below the winner's score. This paper details our model, its intuition, and the performance of its variations in the test set.